Beyond The Great Wall is a product of the de/cypher from ASIA written by Amogh Dev Rai, with a contribution from Farheen Yousuf. Prof Najeeb Jung chairs the ASIA board.
Let us begin this week’s round-up with the change in the attitude of the youthful population in the world’s second most populous country, China. Through the summer, the ever-hopeful young people of China have started having doubts about the economic wonderland they call home. The adage about China getting old before it gets rich seems to have become a concern for the country, which always found part of the Western nay-saying about China’s rise. Now, though, not just young people in China but the government has also started expressing concerns about it; City after city is offering financial incentives to young women and couples to have more kids—Professor of Journalism at Columbia Howard W. French has written a detailed essay in the journal Foreign Policy. The article can be read here.
President Joseph R. Biden Jr. is on his way to New Delhi, where he will be capitalising on the absence of President Xi Jinping (习近平) to woe the leaders of the global South to trust the United States once again as a country invested in their growth, and on partnerships for the global good. This is important in light of the change that the world order has seen where China has out-traded the United States, as the following visualisation from The Economist makes clear. Will the United States be able to win the trust back? We will have to wait and see.
China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi has warned the ASEAN countries through a think-tank in Jakarta that they should refrain from being “manipulated by external forces”; analysts take it to mean the United States. Wang Yi further extolled the virtues of peace and how the tragedy of Ukraine must not be repeated in Asia. The speech was met with a lukewarm reception by other ASEAN members who were still fuming at the cartographic cartwheels of China.
The Japanese continue to build partnerships to counter the choppy waters of Sino-Japanese relations. On the 7th of September 2023, Anna Nishino wrote from Tokyo about the UK-Japan dialogue on economic security; they have vowed to invest together in Africa to ensure the critical mineral supply chain is intact. Read the report here.
Original Essay by The de/Cypher team.
The China Smoke & Mirrors Over Fukushima Water Release
In the history of modern China, propaganda has been a recurring feature. The time that Chairman Mao wrote a big character poster at the beginning of the thirty years of persecution and general waywardness. Amidst this historical context, Japan’s decision to release over 1 million tonnes of water from the 2011 Fukushima disaster has sparked considerable tension and garnered mixed reactions domestically and internationally. Chinese media and government have notably employed diversionary tactics, with slogans like “History will remember” or “People will remember” widely spread on official Chinese social media platforms. Additionally, fake news stories have flooded the information landscape, with exaggerated reports of mass protests, false claims about dying marine animals, and narratives about the death of a Japanese official who drank treated water from Fukushima in 2011. These trends have sparked discussions on different Chinese social media channels as well. Furthermore, several concerning incidents have occurred in two Chinese cities over the past week. These incidents involved attacks on Japanese schools, abusive calls to Japanese businesses, and social media campaigns urging people to boycott Japanese products such as cosmetics.
Rather than addressing significant domestic concerns like the economic slowdown and rising unemployment rates that have led more people to seek solace at temples, attention has shifted towards Japan’s Fukushima water release. This change in focus comes at a time when China is facing additional challenges, including Barclays‘ revised downward forecast for its 2023 GDP growth from 4.9% to 4.5%.
While the United Nations atomic watchdog has approved the release and many other countries have conducted similar wastewater releases, China and Hong Kong have banned importing Japanese seafood in response to this situation. In South Korea, there seems to be some division among the government, opposition parties, and public opinion. Despite approval from the South Korean government stating that international standards are being met about the water release, there appears to be strong opposition among eight out of ten Koreans who are against it.
Some scepticism has been surrounding the decision, particularly from environmentalists and fishing groups who raise valid concerns about potential risks. It is essential to thoroughly study and consider these points before proceeding. However, it is worth noting that in 2021, more than 13 Chinese nuclear power plants released higher levels of tritium into the ocean compared to Japan’s planned annual release from Fukushima Daiichi. This information seems to have been left out of the current debate.
Additionally, a study by Logically, a UK-based data analysis firm, uncovered a coordinated disinformation campaign from China that primarily targeted social media platforms. This campaign not only spread false claims about climate change and health but also aimed to divert attention away from verified facts.
As a response, the Japanese government has advised its citizens in China not to speak Japanese loudly. Japan has also called on China to ensure the safety of Japanese residents and businesses and to disseminate accurate information about the water release. These tensions have historical roots and are exacerbated by Japan’s strengthening ties with the US, Korea, and Taiwan. Engaging in rhetoric that fuels anti-Japanese sentiment or accuses Japan’s government of endangering the region only amplifies a complex dynamic.
At its core, disinformation thrives on spreading deceptive content, strategically targeting our cognitive biases, such as confirmation bias, predisposing us to seek information confirming our preexisting beliefs (Pennycook & Rand, 2021). In the context of the Fukushima issue, disinformation campaigns have propagated fabricated claims regarding the harm caused by the water release, cynically aiming at individuals already inclined to distrust Japan’s actions.
Disinformation operates in tandem with its broader companion, propaganda, utilising disinformation as one of its tactical tools. Research suggests that propaganda and disinformation can create false memories, particularly when they align with individuals’ beliefs (Leon et al.,2023). This underscores how propaganda capitalises on our natural inclination to seek information confirming our biases, even without substantial evidence.
In the end, propaganda’s effectiveness lies in tapping into human psychology and emotions. It often distorts information to reinforce specific beliefs, relying less on logical arguments and more on emotional appeals and biases. Propaganda also exploits stereotypes, prejudices, and irrational beliefs, making it resilient despite contradictory evidence (Forni, 2023). Additionally, it leverages social norms and cultural expectations to disseminate its message effectively, ensuring its influence pervades society.
The story of China using incitement to excite emotions against a country with a troubled past is a handy tool it has always used. With growth slowing and geo-political tensions rising, China will be a country to watch out for.
