De/Cypher Data Dive 📈
In 2023, a record 6.93 million Asians migrated overseas to find work. Migrant workers in Asia-Pacific sent $371.5 billion in remittances, accounting for 43% of global totals.
Asia View
Democratic Asia must bolster defenses, no matter who wins the U.S. election
Written By Brian P. Klein, Published in Nikkei. Summarized By De/Cypher Team
Regardless of the outcome of the US election, Democratic Asia must prioritize security. During a recent debate, neither Joe Biden nor Donald Trump addressed Indo-Pacific issues in depth, exacerbating concerns about US foreign policy. The region is increasingly threatened by China’s aggressive actions and North Korea’s potential military advances in exchange for arming Russia. To mitigate these risks, Japan, South Korea, Australia, India, and the Philippines must increase defense spending and cooperation.
Klein emphasizes the changing dynamics of American politics, where foreign policy is no longer predictably divided between liberals and conservatives. Rising debt and public apprehension about international engagement complicate the US stance. Both the Biden and Trump administrations are likely to advocate for “burden sharing,” which requires regional allies to take on more defense responsibilities.
If Trump wins, he may demand increased defense spending from allies, which could strain relations. A second Biden term would strengthen alliances, but it could be overshadowed by concerns about Biden’s mental health, potentially encouraging more aggressive behavior from North Korea and China.
Klein emphasizes the need for immediate progress in regional defense initiatives such as the Japan-US working group on missile production and bilateral ship repair talks. The recent NATO meeting in Washington emphasized the importance of increased cooperation with Asia, with Japan planning joint military drills with NATO countries near Hokkaido.
Japan’s aid to the Philippines in weapons, ships, and troop rotations, along with a new bilateral defense agreement, also highlights the need for intra-Asia cooperation. This regional collaboration is essential for building a robust security environment independent of U.S. involvement, but it must accelerate to be effective.
Klein also discusses how economic shifts affect regional security. As Southeast Asia increasingly exports to the United States rather than China, public opinion may turn against Beijing’s vision for Asia. He concludes that, while regime change in China is not an option, negotiating from a position of strength is essential. Regardless of who wins the US presidency, regional nations must strengthen their deterrent capabilities to maintain stability and counter China’s expansionist agenda. (Nikkei)
Af-Pak De/Cypher
15 July, 2024
Pakistan’s Fiscal Budget: Navigating Debt and Dissent for 2024-2025
Written By Priyanka Garodia, Geopolitical Research Analyst – South Asia
The state of Pakistan’s economy has been a persistent concern, with the government trying its best to meet its fiscal challenges. Some of the major issues that are troubling Pakistan include high inflation rates, unsurmountable debt and larger macroeconomic imbalance. The Pakistan Budget for 2024-2025 addresses these problems. Given that Pakistan tends to borrow heavily rather than focus on domestic policies and reform is a concern for the South Asian economy. The consequences of this debt-driven development paradigm have been far-reaching, including a deteriorating standard of living for the general population.
Pakistan’s budget aims to reduce the fiscal deficit of 7% of the GDP given that it is negotiating with the IMF for another bailout. To achieve this deficit tax and non-tax revenues have been targeted. The Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) has been reduced to create fiscal space. Multiple taxation measures including increased taxes for salaried employees, non-corporates and exporters have been levied. This decision has not boded well for the popularity of the Pakistani government with the business community highly critical of the new tax regime. A focus on agriculture and sectoral development has been implemented, with the continuation of special initiatives like Kamyab Pakistan Programme.
The budget has generated widespread protests amongst the business class and the ordinary citizens of Pakistan who face majority of the brunt of the policies being implemented. The textile industry believe the tax regime is very rigid and could be devastating for small businesses. The PCB has been a vehement critique of the budget since its announcement, asking for the government to rethink their decision. While the IMF considers these policy measures sufficient to handout out a loan, the ordinary Pakistani will face the worse end of the stick with reduced welfarism of the state and increased tax burdens.
Economy
PSX Shatters Records with All-Time High of 81,295 Points
The Express Tribune reports that the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) soared to an all-time high of 81,295 points, experiencing a gain of 1,351 points (1.66%) from its previous close. Analysts attribute this surge to increased investor confidence, bolstered by potential privatization of state-owned enterprises, a recovering Pakistani rupee, and optimism surrounding upcoming IMF talks. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s commitment to initiate the bidding process for Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) in August also contributed to the bullish sentiment.
IMF, Pakistan Reach Staff-Level Agreement on $7bn Extended Fund Facility
Business Recorder reports that the IMF has reached a staff-level agreement with Pakistan for a $7 billion, 37-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF), pending approval from the IMF’s Executive Board. The program aims to strengthen fiscal and monetary policy, broaden the tax base, improve SOE management, and enhance social protection through the Benazir Income Support Program.
Reactivating Neelum-Jhelum Hydropower Project: PM Orders Formation of Body on Urgent Basis
Business Recorder reports that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has ordered the urgent formation of a committee to address the reactivation of the Neelum-Jhelum Hydropower Project, which is currently closed and causing significant financial losses. An investigation led by former Secretary Interior Shahid Khan revealed defects in the project’s construction, including inadequate concrete lining and ignored geophysical factors. The PM instructed the immediate completion of the investigation report, identification of those responsible, and strict action against them.
Internal Politics 🏛️
May 9 Vandalism: Imran Khan Arrested in 12 Cases for Inciting Public
Dunya News reports that PTI founder Imran Khan, already in Adiala Jail, was arrested by Lahore police for his alleged role in the May 9 vandalism. He faces 12 cases related to inciting public riots, with a 12-member police team led by DSP Ahmad Usman interrogating him. Khan is accused of provoking attacks on Jinnah House, Askari Tower, and Shadman Police Station.
Major Victory for Ex-PM Khan as Pakistan Top Court Rules Party Eligible for Reserved Seats
Aamir Saeed writes in Arab News that Pakistan’s Supreme Court ruled that the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party of jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan is eligible for reserved seats in parliament. PTI candidates contested the February elections as independents after the party was barred, but the court overturned previous rulings that denied them reserved seats for women and minorities. This decision pressures Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s ruling coalition, as PTI is now expected to gain up to 23 reserved seats, impacting the coalition’s majority and legislative power.
Pakistan’s First Breast Milk Bank Opposed by Clerics
Dawn reports that Pakistan’s first breast milk bank, launched for premature babies at the Sindh Institute of Child Health and Neonatology (SICHN) in Karachi, has been shut down following opposition from clerics. Despite initial religious approval from Jamia Darul Uloom Karachi in December 2023, concerns about Islamic kinship codes led to the withdrawal of this approval. The Council of Islamic Ideology cited risks related to donor anonymity and potential future marriages. The hospital is negotiating for the facility’s reopening, emphasizing the bank’s importance for neonatal survival in Pakistan.
WASA Claims Record-Breaking Rain After Downpour Submerges Parts of Lahore
The Nation reports that Lahore experienced record-breaking rainfall this year, exceeding the 30-year mark, according to Muhammad Ghafran, Managing Director of WASA Lahore. The heaviest rainfall was recorded in Tajpura with 175 mm, followed by significant rainfall in Lakshmi Chowk (101 mm) and Mughalpura (99 mm). Despite proactive drainage efforts, several areas like Shah Jamal, Lakshmi Chowk, and Davis Road faced challenges due to water accumulation.
Security
Quetta to Suspend Internet, Cellphone Services on Muharram 7, 10
The News International reports that Balochistan Home Minister Meer Ziaullah Langau announced the suspension of internet and cellphone services in Quetta on Muharram 7 and 10 from 6 am to midnight for security reasons. Section 144 has also been imposed in seven districts, banning pillion riding and gathering. About 8,000 security personnel and five Quick Response Force platoons will be deployed in Quetta on Ashura. The federal government has approved the deployment of the Pakistan Army and Civil Armed Forces nationwide during Muharram.
SHO Among Five Lahore Cops Booked for ‘Torturing Suspect to Death’
Dawn reports that five policemen, including Nawa Lahore Station House Officer (SHO) Abid Jat, were booked for allegedly torturing a robbery-cum-murder suspect, Abid Abbas, to death. The incident led to protests, blocking Faisalabad-Jhang Road. The family accused the police of torturing Abbas during interrogation. Following demands, a murder case was registered against the policemen. The police claim Abbas fell sick and died at the Nawan Lahore Rural Health Centre. The involved officers have been suspended pending further investigation.
FIR Registered Against Several Baloch Yakjehti Committee Supporters, Mahrang Baloch
Aaj Tv reports that an FIR has been registered against human rights activist Dr. Mahrang Baloch and several members of the Baloch Yakjehti Committee (BYC) for allegedly damaging government property, interfering with government affairs, and raising anti-state slogans. The FIR includes charges under Section 7 of the Anti-Terrorism Act. The complaint follows clashes between BYC supporters and police during a rally for missing students, resulting in injuries and arrests. Dr. Baloch criticized the government’s actions, claiming they aim to silence peaceful protests.
Pakistan and the world
Pakistan Abstains as UNGA Demands Russia Withdraw from Ukrainian Nuclear Plant
Pakistan Today reports that Pakistan abstained from voting in the United Nations General Assembly on a resolution demanding Russia withdraw from Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. The resolution received 99 votes in favor, 9 against, and 60 abstentions. Pakistan’s neutral stance on the Russia-Ukraine war was reflected in its abstention.
UN Chief Meets Pakistan’s Premier to Discuss Afghan Refugees Following Clampdown
Arab News reports that the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, Filippo Grandi, met with Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to discuss the situation of Afghan refugees amid a persistent anti-migrant crackdown. Pakistan, hosting around 1.7 million Afghan refugees, has seen an estimated 600,000 Afghans return home since the crackdown began in November. Grandi, who visited Pakistan and met with Afghan refugees, emphasized the need for support amidst growing challenges.
Afghanistan Update
Afghanistan: New UN Report Stresses Urgent Need for Taliban to Roll Back on Moral Policing
Amnesty International reports that the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) has highlighted gross human rights violations by the Taliban’s Ministry for the Propagation of Virtue and Prevention of Vice (MPVPV). The report reveals that the MPVPV’s arbitrary and discriminatory policies, particularly against women and girls, have severely undermined human rights.
Pakistan Extends Stay of Registered Afghan Refugees by One Year
Amu TV reports that Pakistan has extended the stay of 1.45 million registered Afghan refugees by one year, alleviating concerns of immediate repatriation. The extension, approved by the federal cabinet, prolongs the validity of Proof of Registration (PoR) cards until June 30, 2025. Pakistan, home to approximately 1.3 million registered Afghans and 800,000 holding Afghan citizenship cards, began repatriating undocumented migrants in November 2021.
Afghan Women Taking the Initiative Against the Taliban
Shabnam von Hein writes in DW that Afghan women, led by activists like Maryam Maroof Arvin of the Purple Saturdays Movement, are organizing networks to fight for their rights amid the Taliban’s oppressive rule. Disappointed by the West’s lack of support, these women hold protests, secretly educate girls, and provide aid to vulnerable groups. Despite the Taliban’s severe restrictions and the UN’s controversial negotiations excluding women, activists like Arvin stress the need for a unified domestic resistance to establish a legitimate, inclusive government in Afghanistan.
UN: Afghan Taliban Increase Support for Anti-Pakistan TTP Terrorists
Ayaz Gul writes in VOA that a new UN report reveals the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is the largest terrorist group in Afghanistan, receiving increased support from the Afghan Taliban for cross-border attacks in Pakistan. The report highlights TTP’s significant operations in Afghanistan and their intensified attacks in Pakistan, straining Islamabad-Kabul relations. The UN warns of potential TTP-Al-Qaida collaboration, enhancing TTP’s threat beyond the region.
Bayley Requests Restoring UK Diplomatic Presence in Afghanistan
Patrick Wintour writes in The Guardian that Hugh Bayley, commissioner of the Independent Commission for Aid Impact (ICAI), urged the UK to restore its diplomatic presence in Afghanistan. Visiting Kabul in May, Bayley emphasized this move would support Afghan women and aid monitoring. He noted that the absence of diplomatic missions complicates the work of international NGOs, making it difficult to verify if aid targets are met, particularly those aimed at women.
Taliban Don’t Recognize Women on Afghan Olympic Team: Sport Official
France 24 reports that the Taliban government does not acknowledge the three female athletes representing Afghanistan at the Paris Olympics, as stated by sports department spokesman Atal Mashwani. The International Olympic Committee (IOC) invited six Afghan athletes, including three women, without Taliban consultation. Mashwani emphasized that with girls’ sports halted in Afghanistan, the government only supports the three male athletes.
Taliban Tries Reconciling Science and Religion in Facing Climate Change
Rick Noack writes in The Washington Post that Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers are addressing climate change while debating its causes, ranging from divine intervention to foreign conspiracies. At the Jalalabad climate conference, Taliban officials acknowledged the reality of climate change and called for environmental protection as a religious duty. Despite lacking international aid, the Taliban emphasizes local adaptation efforts and self-reliance, even using former U.S. military equipment for disaster response. The UN estimates Afghanistan needs over $20 billion for climate adaptation, but the Taliban’s isolation hampers foreign funding.
Bangladesh De/Cypher
15 July, 2024
Economy
Mongla Port Earns Taka 319cr Revenue in FY24
TBP reports that Mongla Port, Bangladesh’s second-largest seaport, earned Taka 319 crore in revenue for the fiscal year 2023-24, a 28.55% increase from the Taka 302 crore collected in FY23. MPA officials noted that 846 ships arrived in FY24, up from 827 in FY23. The port handled 108.68 lakh metric tonnes of cargo and 31,044 TEU containers in FY24, surpassing previous records. Ongoing projects, including waste management modernization and channel dredging, are expected to further boost revenue in FY25. The port’s growth contributes significantly to the South Western region’s economic development.
PM Seeks Enhanced Trade, Cooperation Among South, South-East Asia
The Daily Messenger reports that Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina emphasized boosting trade and cooperation between South and South-East Asia during a meeting with Dr. Nalinee Taveesin, Thailand’s trade representative. She proposed offering land in Cox’s Bazar for Thai tourism investments and highlighted potential collaborations in energy, logistics, food processing, and the Blue Economy. The Thai delegation expressed interest in halal food processing, seeing significant opportunities for collaboration with Bangladesh.
Internal Politics 🏛️
PM Hasina terms criticisms on her foreign trips as ‘mental sickness’
Prothom Alo reports that Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina described the opposition’s criticisms of her recent trips to India and China as ‘mental sickness’ during a press conference. Hasina dismissed negative remarks and explained her early return from China was due to completing official duties and personal reasons.
Quota reform: Students across Bangladesh take to streets in middle of night
Dhaka Tribune reports that university students across Bangladesh protested at midnight following Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s comments against the quota reform movement. Demonstrations occurred at campuses including Rajshahi University, Jahangirnagar University, and Dhaka University, where students chanted slogans against the quota system favoring descendants of freedom fighters.
Security
Dengue May Spike in Aug or Sept, Fear Experts, Call for Central Action Plan
The Daily Star reports that experts predict a potential spike in dengue cases in August or September due to a delayed monsoon. The outbreak may not be as severe as last year, but a coordinated effort between local government and health departments is essential. Be-Nazir Ahmed and Kabirul Bashar emphasized updating and implementing a national dengue control strategy. Financial burdens on dengue patients were highlighted by Rumana Huque, noting treatment costs at government and private hospitals. Dr. Lenin Chowdhury urged for a comprehensive action plan and continuous mosquito control efforts. Forty-eight dengue-related deaths have been recorded this year.
Bangladesh Joins Colombo Security Conclave
Daily Sun reports that Bangladesh has become the fifth member of the Colombo Security Conclave (CSC) during the 8th Deputy National Security Adviser (DNSA) level meeting hosted virtually by Mauritius. The CSC, initially founded in 2011 with India, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives, also includes Mauritius. Seychelles participated as an observer. Bangladesh’s delegation was led by Lt Gen Mizanur Rahman Shameem. The members reviewed past decisions and activities, agreeing to hold the 7th NSA-level meeting in India later this year.
Bangladesh And The World🌐
Teesta Project: India Should Implement It If We’re to Get Water, Says PM
The Daily Star reports that Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina emphasized that India should implement the Teesta project to ensure Bangladesh receives water from upstream. She noted that both China and India have conducted feasibility studies, but priority would be given to India due to its control over the Teesta water.
FM Hasan Meets Jaishankar in Delhi
Nurul Islam Hasib writes in Dhaka Tribune that Bangladesh Foreign Minister Dr. Hasan Mahmud met Indian counterpart Dr. S. Jaishankar in New Delhi during the 2nd Bimstec Foreign Ministers Retreat. Dr. Mahmud requested a smooth supply of essential commodities, including onions, to Bangladesh and sought India’s support for Bangladesh’s BRICS membership bid. He also discussed power cooperation, Teesta River conservation, and invited Jaishankar to the next Joint Consultative Commission meeting in Bangladesh. This was their first meeting since Jaishankar’s reappointment.
Bangladeshi Delegation Visits India to Explore Transhipment Potential
The Business Standard reports that a 13-member Bangladeshi delegation, led by Joint Secretary S M Mostafa Kamal from the Ministry of Shipping, visited India from July 9-12 to explore transhipment potential for Bangladeshi exim cargo through Indian East Coast ports. The delegation visited ports in Chennai, Krishnapatnam, Visakhapatnam, Kolkata, and Haldia to assess technical feasibility and commercial viability. Discussions covered potential river cruise services and returning cargo using inland vessels. Both sides identified bottlenecks and agreed to provide comparative data on using Indian ports versus other transhipment hubs.
Dhaka, Beijing Sign 21 Instruments, announce 7 Projects to Strengthen Ties on Diverse Fronts
The Business Standard reports that Bangladesh and China signed 21 instruments on July 10, in the presence of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and Chinese Premier Li Qiang, to elevate their relationship to a “comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership.” The agreements cover cooperation in trade, investment, digital economy, infrastructure, and disaster management, among other areas.
Four European Countries to Hire 3,000 Bangladeshis: FM Mahmud
bdnews24 reports that Italy, Germany, Greece, and Romania will employ 3,000 Bangladeshi workers, as announced by Foreign Minister Hasan Mahmud. The EU ambassador hinted at future hiring possibilities based on the skills of these workers. Mahmud also discussed maintaining benefits like tariff reductions from the EU post-2026 when Bangladesh graduates to a middle-income country. During the 2nd BIMSTEC Foreign Ministers’ Retreat in New Delhi, topics included climate change, energy security, and green energy production. Bangladesh will chair the next BIMSTEC Summit in Thailand on September 4th.
Number of Bangladeshi Students in US Rose 300% in 10 Years
The Daily Star reports that the number of Bangladeshi students in the US has surged by over 300% in the past decade, growing from 3,314 in 2011-2012 to 13,563 in 2022-2023. Bangladesh is now the 13th highest-sending country of international students to the US, with a significant increase in both undergraduate and graduate students.
Call for Justice and Recognition of 1971 Bangladesh Genocide Intensifies
Prothom Alo reports that calls for justice and recognition of the 1971 Bangladesh genocide are intensifying, highlighted in an international event organized by ‘Genocide 71,’ an initiative of Mukto Ashor and Bangladesh History Olympiad. The event, which featured diverse voices, emphasized the need for global acknowledgment and education about the atrocities committed by the West Pakistani army and their collaborators.
Escalating Quota Reform Protests in Bangladesh
Written By De/Cypher Team, Insights from Prothom Alo, Daily Star, and The Business Standard
The quota reform issue in Bangladesh has recently escalated, with significant protests and legal interventions. The Supreme Court issued a one-month status quo on the High Court’s reinstatement of the 30% quota for freedom fighters’ children in government jobs. This decision came amid ongoing student protests demanding comprehensive reform of the quota system.
Students have been staging demonstrations across Dhaka, blocking key intersections and holding marches. They have presented a memorandum to President Mohammed Shahabuddin, urging immediate government action. Movement leader Nahid Islam stated, “We want visible initiatives regarding our one-point demand within the next 24 hours.”
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina reiterated the government’s stance, emphasizing that the issue is currently under judicial consideration. “We have nothing to do until a solution comes from the court. It is the reality, and the protesters must accept it,” she said at a press conference. She also warned that any violent actions during protests would face legal consequences.
Awami League General Secretary and Road Transport and Bridges Minister Obaidul Quader urged students to remain alert against attempts by political groups, including the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), to politicize the non-political anti-quota movement. “Why will the government face a non-political movement politically? The government has no intention to face the anti-quota movement politically,” he stated.
Despite these statements, students continue their protests, motivated by what they perceive as injustices in the existing quota system. A student from Kuwait Maitree Hall expressed frustration, “We have been insulted, ridiculed for speaking up against the existing unjust quota system. None can do it. We have gathered here in protest. Nobody has the right to insult the students.”
The protests have seen significant participation, including a spontaneous gathering of students at Dhaka University’s TSC area late at night, following remarks by Prime Minister Hasina that were perceived as demeaning. The students have reiterated their demand for a rational reform of the quota system, proposing a maximum of 5% quotas for backward communities.
The situation remains tense as both the government and protesters await the Supreme Court’s final verdict on the matter. The government continues to urge patience and legal resolution, while students press for immediate reforms through sustained demonstrations.
Regime collapse in Myanmar’s Rakhine
Written By David Scott Mathieson, Published in The Interpreter
Summarized by De/Cypher Team
Myanmar’s civil conflict has escalated in recent weeks, with the Arakan Army (AA) making significant gains in Rakhine State. The AA seized Thandwe Airport and Ngapali Beach, aiming to drive junta forces out of the state entirely. Following a brief ceasefire in late 2023, the AA resumed its armed resistance efforts. Their offensive, part of the larger Operation 1027, has seen the AA seize strategic territories and inflict significant losses on the Myanmar military. The military’s response has been brutal, using scorched earth tactics and committing atrocities.
The AA’s success has raised concerns about increased tensions between ethnic Rakhine and Rohingya Muslims. The AA’s ultimate goal is “confederation” status, and they currently hold 50-75% of Rakhine State. Their administrative efforts have expanded to include education and humanitarian aid, but the challenge of managing the region and preventing future military incursions remains.
Headlines Quick Recap
Leader of Nepal’s Largest Communist Party Named Prime Minister
Khadga Prasad Oli, leader of Nepal’s largest communist party, was named prime minister following the collapse of the previous coalition government. Oli will head a coalition of his Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist Leninist) and the Nepali Congress party. This marks his fourth term as prime minister. Oli must seek a vote of confidence in parliament within a month. (VOA)
China Conducts Joint Naval Drills Amid Rising Tensions with NATO
China conducted joint naval drills with Russia in Zhanjiang following recent tensions with NATO. The NATO summit in Washington labeled China a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war in Ukraine, highlighting shared security concerns. In response, China accused NATO of seeking security at others’ expense and warned against bringing chaos to Asia. (AP)
Iran President-Elect Ready for ‘Constructive Dialogue’ with Europe
Iran’s president-elect Masoud Pezeshkian, who won a runoff election against ultraconservative Saeed Jalili, expressed readiness for constructive relations with European nations. Despite accusing Europe of failing to mitigate US sanctions after the 2015 nuclear deal’s collapse, Pezeshkian aims to revive the accord and improve Iran’s international relations. (CNA)
North Korea Threatens to Boost Nuke Capability in Reaction to US-South Korea Deterrence Guidelines
North Korea has threatened to enhance its nuclear capabilities and warned of severe consequences for the US and South Korea in response to their new joint nuclear deterrence guidelines. These guidelines, signed by President Biden and President Yoon, aim to integrate US nuclear and South Korean conventional weapons. (Arab News)
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