China Quote✒️
“For all the Western chatter about the Chinese and Russian leaders wanting to challenge the global order, their vision of a fairer and more just world order that has appealed to the Global South is not one of confrontation. Dissatisfaction with the international political status quo — a post-World War II world order shaped by the US-led West in which developing and emerging economies are significantly disadvantaged — is a key reason for the appeal of BRICS”. – China Daily
What happened at the BRICS Summit 2024?:
Reuters reports that the annual BRICS summit held in Kazan, Russia, saw significant discussions and developments involving global leaders. Russian President Vladimir Putin hosted the summit, which included Chinese President Xi Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, among others. The summit, aimed at showcasing Russia’s global alliances despite Western isolation over the Ukraine conflict, marked a pivotal moment for geopolitical and economic dialogue.
Xi-Modi Breakthrough Followed Months of Pressure by India CEOs
Bloomberg reports that following a 2020 border clash, Prime Minister Narendra Modi imposed restrictions on Chinese investments, banning apps and delaying visa approvals. These measures, however, backfired, disrupting India’s manufacturing ambitions and leading to failed projects like BYD’s $1 billion electric vehicle plan. During the recent BRICS summit in Russia, Modi and Xi Jinping met to stabilise relations, with special representatives set to plan the next steps. Indian CEOs have lobbied for easing restrictions, highlighting the adverse impact on economic growth.
Despite Modi’s cautious approach, there is a push for gradual changes, such as faster visas for Chinese technicians and increased direct flights. Officials are also considering allowing Chinese stakes of up to 10% in certain sectors, while maintaining controls in sensitive areas like defence and telecoms. The easing aims to bolster India’s long-term economic growth rather than shift its strategic alignment away from US alliances. Meanwhile, bilateral trade continues to grow, with China becoming India’s largest trading partner in 2024, despite geopolitical tensions.
John Liu commented that uncertainty complicates future planning, but keeping options open is essential. With the US election approaching, a deal now serves both China and India’s interests. China isn’t just mending ties with India, a Quad partner; it’s also seeking a “fresh start” with Japan and a “new starting point” with the UK. These overtures to US allies act as a hedge against potential shifts if Kamala Harris wins or relations sour under another Trump administration, given his past trade war and tariff threats. As with any looming storm, it’s wise to have an umbrella ready.
BRICS Expansion
Putin revealed that over 30 countries have expressed interest in joining BRICS, but no clear framework for expansion was outlined. While the group’s current focus remains on strengthening its internal structures, the growing list of potential members indicates a rising interest in alternative global alliances amidst shifting power dynamics.
Ukraine Conflict
The Ukraine conflict was discussed among BRICS leaders in various formats. However, no concrete measures or unified stance emerged from the discussions, reflecting the complexities of reconciling member countries’ differing perspectives on the issue.
Economic Initiatives
The BRICS bloc outlined plans to increase its influence through projects like a grain exchange and a cross-border payment system, aimed at reducing reliance on Western financial structures. These initiatives highlight BRICS’ focus on fostering a multipolar economic order.
Middle East Tensions
Putin raised concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly the potential for a broader conflict following increased hostilities between Israel and Iran. This topic emphasised BRICS’ engagement with global crises beyond its immediate geographical scope.
Outcomes and Implications
The summit’s outcomes suggest a cautious yet strategic move towards deeper economic cooperation among BRICS members, potentially altering global trade dynamics. Despite the lack of immediate breakthroughs, the event marked a significant step towards redefining global alliances and addressing pressing international conflicts.
De/Cypher Pulse〽️
China and The Wagner Group: Cooperation or Contestation?
Written by Priyanka Garodia, Geopolitical Research Analyst – South Asia
Once disengaged from the world order, China ascent to major power status has been rapid. Its strategic use of economic relations to expand its global influence has made it a master strategist internationally. China uses large-infrastructure projects like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to achieve most of its ambitions. It creates economic interdependence with partner nations through trade and connectivity, making it an evitable part of the ecosystems of these countries. However, this expansion of economic relations does not come in a vacuum. It is grounded in ally-shoring with mostly those countries who have fallen out with the West and largely do not adhere to liberal-democratic principles.
The focus on bolstering economic partnerships that do not come with the necessary risks of military presence has been the cornerstone of China’s geopolitical ambitions. Rather than engaging in military interventions, it seeks to focus on areas of partnership and stays away from any sort of political or social engineering in said countries. In countries that come with volatile political situations it adopts a more pragmatic approach that includes the use of private security contractors. These contractors allow China to maintain a low-profile while mitigating the risks that come with local unrest. China has displayed considerable restraint when it comes to dealing with social and political unrest unlike many other countries in the world.
Russia has been considered a belligerent state of the world order that uses whatever means necessary to achieve its state-interests. The Wagner group is a private mercenary outfit that has acted time and again as an extension of the Russian state and sometimes Putin himself. It is a paramilitary organization that operates in various military zones and is known for leaving a trail of carnage behind. They are loud and thrive in an environment of chaos and adopt an aggressive hardline method of resource acquisition and political manoeuvring. They have been involved in the Central African Republic (CAR), in Syria, Sudan and Mali. While the Wagner group has worked to secure Russian interests abroad often through military force, China has favoured economic stability and partnership in achieving its foreign policy goals. However, a growing opinion amongst the Chinese people is that China would benefit from a more Wagner-esque ways of doing things.
China’s Private Security Domain
The objective of Chinese security firms is different from that of the Wagner group. These firms are responsible for risk management and protection especially for projects under the BRI. In Pakistan and Kenya, these contractors shield infrastructure from local threats and ensure that investments remain secure with minimal political or military conflicts. This has been China’s modus operandi. In the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), private security firms maintain a discreet presence in protecting China’s mining activities. They do not engage in local disputes, allowing China to protect its influence while reducing the political fallout of a military approach. The Wagner group on the other hand has a history of getting embroiled in local conflicts and engaging in direct military actions, as seen in CAR and Syria.
Potential Areas of Collaboration
There are no formal ties between the Wagner group and China, but both see intersecting interests in Africa that could benefit them mutually. Both see stability and resource mobilisation as key interests to help counter western influence. For example, in Central African Republic, Wagner’s presence has led to a more secure environment in key mining operations that has benefitted China. However, both parties do not want to be seen as reliant on the other.
Conclusion: Is it Competition or Collaboration?
China’s growing geopolitical clout could lead to potential conflicts with the Wagner group. In unstable regions like Libya and Sudan, the Wagner group’s anarchic ways could interfere with the stability that China favours in operations. The BRI initiative does benefit from a cooperative environment whereas the Wagner group uses chaos to secure Russian interests. This could be a test in the “no-limits friendship” that Beijing and Moscow share. Also, with the growth of China’s private security industry, the areas of operation with the Wagner group may also collide leading to tensions. This could result in tensions between the two, especially in the Middle East where China has made significant investments in energy projects and ports and where Wagner’s presence is felt largely too.
While informal cooperation exists between China and the Wagner group, especially in Africa, a possible consolidation of actions could take place. However, this cooperation is only possible if China decides to trade in stability for more coercive tactics. The Wagner group will not be changing its methods anytime soon and hence, it ultimately comes down to how aggressive does China want to be.
Blindspot👁️
Economic Activity🏦
CIIE facilitates $420 billion in deals: Ministry of Commerce
CGTN reports that the 7th China International Import Expo (CIIE), scheduled for 5-10 November in Shanghai, will cover over 420,000 square metres with participants from 152 countries. The event will host 297 Fortune Global 500 companies and introduce a new materials zone. Past CIIEs have led to $420 billion in intended transactions, new business ventures, and R&D centres in China.
Inside China🐉
Xi Urges Strategic Missile Troops to Enhance Deterrence, Combat Capabilities
Xinhua reports that Chinese President Xi Jinping, during an inspection of the PLA Rocket Force, called for strengthening deterrence and combat abilities. Xi stressed training under real combat conditions and urged troops to use new weaponry effectively. He emphasised maintaining the Party’s leadership over the military and enhancing overall combat preparedness to safeguard national security and core interests.
China Eyes ‘Top-Tier Industrial Workforce’ by 2035, Vows Hi-Tech Training, Talent Support
Vanessa Cai writes in SCMP that China aims to establish a highly skilled industrial workforce by 2035, with a focus on technological training and talent development. The Communist Party’s new guidelines call for improved vocational education, better worker welfare, and relaxed hukou rules for migrant workers. This initiative, part of China’s hi-tech self-reliance strategy, seeks to address record youth joblessness amid ongoing US-China tech tensions.
China’s Swelling Ranks of ‘Empty Nest’ Elderly Sparks Urgent Care Need
Zhang Yushuo writes in Yicai Global that nearly 60% of China’s elderly lived in ’empty nests’ by 2021, up from 49.3% in 2010, reflecting rising eldercare needs. With a fast-growing elderly population and low birth rates, social isolation is a concern. The report urges better public eldercare and at-home care policies, as many elderly face chronic diseases and lack digital skills.
China Unveils Obesity Diagnosis, Treatment Guidelines
China Daily reports that China’s National Health Commission has introduced its first guidelines for diagnosing and treating obesity. Recognised as a major public health issue, obesity is now the sixth leading risk factor for death and disability in China. The guidelines cover clinical nutrition, medication, surgery, and behavioural interventions, promoting a balanced diet and exercise as fundamental solutions.
China Cracks Down on ‘Uncivilised’ Online Puns Used to Discuss Sensitive Topics
Helen Davidson writes in The Guardian that China’s internet regulators have launched a campaign against puns, homophones, and memes that help citizens bypass censorship. The “clear and bright” campaign aims to curb “irregular and uncivilised” language, targeting jokes used to discreetly address sensitive topics. Authorities warn that wordplay erodes minors’ communication and ideological values, while users creatively adapt language to critique the government.
China and the World🌏
Beijing Condemns Attack on Myanmar Consulate
Wang Qingyun writes in China Daily that China has condemned an attack on its consulate in Mandalay, Myanmar, where an explosive device damaged the compound. No casualties were reported. The Chinese Foreign Ministry urged Myanmar to investigate, apprehend the perpetrators, and enhance security for Chinese institutions and citizens. Myanmar has expressed “shock and pain” and committed to ensuring safety.
China, Japan hold high-level consultations on maritime affairs in Tokyo
Daijiworld reports that China and Japan held the 17th round of consultations on maritime affairs, aiming to turn the East China Sea into a zone of peace and cooperation. Discussions covered maritime defence, law enforcement, and the marine economy. Both sides pledged to manage differences and continue cooperation, with the next meeting set for China next year.
Britain, China Strike Conciliatory Note During Top Diplomat’s Visit
Laurie Chen writes in Reuters that China and Britain sought reconciliation during British Foreign Secretary David Lammy’s visit to Beijing. Both nations committed to renewing dialogue, with Lammy emphasising “mutually beneficial cooperation” despite ongoing disputes, particularly over Ukraine and human rights. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi highlighted the need for pragmatic ties. Lammy also urged China to stop supporting Russia’s military, while reaffirming Britain’s focus on national security.
China’s Minister of Industry and Information Technology Meets Apple CEO Tim Cook
Xinhua reports that China’s Industry Minister Jin Zhuanglong met Apple CEO Tim Cook in Beijing to discuss Apple’s growth in China, data security, and cloud services. Jin highlighted China’s efforts to open its telecommunications sector for foreign investment and urged Apple to enhance innovation and collaboration with Chinese firms. Cook expressed Apple’s commitment to increasing its investment and supporting China’s industrial development.
Microsoft Warns of Interference by Russia, Iran, China in US Election
Dilara Zengin Okay writes in Anadolu Agency that Microsoft has alerted about potential interference by Russia, Iran, and China in the upcoming US presidential elections on 5 November. Iranian cyber actors allegedly leaked materials from the Trump campaign, while Russian operatives targeted Kamala Harris and Tim Walz with deepfake videos. China’s efforts focused on down-ballot candidates, using AI tactics to create uncertainty about election integrity.
Tech in China🖥️
China’s biggest internet forum to focus on AI as Beijing seeks greater role in governance
Ben Jiang writes in the SCMP that the 2024 World Internet Conference, or Wuzhen Summit, will centre on AI under the theme “intelligence for good” from November 19-22. The event aims to strengthen Beijing’s influence in global AI governance, featuring discussions on AI innovation, governance, and responsible development.
Chinese self-driving startup WeRide files for $119mln U.S. IPO
Scott Murdoch and Rishav Chatterjee write in Reuters that Chinese autonomous vehicle company WeRide has filed for a $119.4 million initial public offering (IPO) on Nasdaq. Additionally, the company plans a private placement of $320.5 million, aiming to enhance its global expansion and technology development.
De/Cypher Data Dive📊
Approx. 162 million international visitors travelled to China in 2023. The number of visitors dropped dramatically in 2020 and has been slowly recovering with 35.5 million visitors to China in 2023.
In 2019, 38% of tourists visiting China originated from Hong Kong, SAR China. This percentage saw a significant increase, rising to 51% by 2023.
Domestic and international spending has declined in 2023 as compared to the year 2019.
De/Cypher Lighthouse
China’s Growing Role in Multilateral Development Banks
Written By Farheen, Policy & Trust Analyst
The recently concluded BRICS Summit in Kazan left much to be discussed, but one of the most notable takeaways was China’s growing ambition in international multilateral governance. In his address, President Xi Jinping made it clear: “BRICS countries should play a leading role in reforming global governance… The New Development Bank should be expanded and strengthened.”
Image Credit: Mapping China’s Participation in Multilateral Development Institutions and Funds
China’s involvement in multilateral development banks (MDBs) has changed dramatically over the last few decades, reflecting both its economic growth and a deliberate strategic shift in its approach to global financial regulation. With its rapidly expanding economy, China has sought a stronger voice in multilateral development banks (MDBs) such as the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and regional development banks. This participation has elicited both praise and skepticism, as China has established itself not only as a borrower, but also as a major donor, shareholder, and procurement powerhouse. Analyzing China’s interactions with MDBs sheds light on its broader geopolitical ambitions and the shifting dynamics of global development finance.
From Borrower to Major Shareholder: China’s Ascent in MDBs
China’s relationship with MDBs began in 1980, when it joined the World Bank and received 12,000 shares of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), making it the sixth-largest shareholder. Decades of rapid economic growth have propelled China to its current status as the third-largest shareholder, with a voting power of 5.87%. This expansion is mirrored in other MDBs, including the International Finance Corporation (IFC) and regional banks like the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the African Development Bank (AfDB), where China has increased its voting shares through strategic capital contributions and share purchases.
Image Credit: Mapping China’s Participation in Multilateral Development Institutions and Funds
However, as the Center for Global Development(CGD) Brief points out, China’s rise within MDBs is not solely due to its economic prowess. China has made concerted efforts to expand its influence by increasing mandatory and voluntary financial contributions, as well as establishing new MDBs such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the New Development Bank (NDB). China has the largest or co-largest voting shares in these institutions, cementing its position as a global leader in development finance. China’s voluntary contributions to concessional windows, such as the World Bank’s International Development Association (IDA), have also significantly increased. This shift reflects China’s willingness to play a more active role as a donor in global development, though its contributions still lag behind those of traditional Western powers.
Balancing Influence and Strategic Interests
China’s increasing involvement in MDBs has raised concerns about the consequences of its growing influence. As noted by Yunnan Chen in a recent interview with The China-Global South Project, China’s involvement in MDBs has shifted from a more collaborative stance to a more strategic and, at times, contentious one. One notable example is China’s insistence that MDBs, such as the IMF and World Bank, accept “haircuts” or losses on their loans as part of debt restructuring agreements for distressed countries. This demand was especially evident during China’s negotiations over Sri Lanka’s debt restructuring, when China initially offered a two-year moratorium before agreeing to full support for a restructuring plan that enabled Sri Lanka to secure $2.9 billion in IMF funding.
This move reflects China’s broader approach to MDBs, which seeks to reshape global financial system rules to benefit its strategic interests. China believes that MDBs, like commercial creditors, should share the burden of debt relief for developing countries. However, this has sparked tensions with Western-led MDBs, which claim that their preferential creditor status exempts them from such losses. Some see China’s demand for more equitable debt restructuring as a challenge to multilateral development finance norms, but it is consistent with Beijing’s long-standing goal of reforming global governance institutions to better reflect the interests of emerging economies.
Image Credit: Mapping China’s Participation in Multilateral Development Institutions and Funds
Aside from its role as a major shareholder, China has become a dominant player in MDB procurement. According to the CGD Brief, Chinese firms, both state-owned and private, consistently outperform firms from other countries in terms of securing MDB contracts. Critics argue that this may undermine political support for MDBs in other donor countries, especially since China continues to benefit from both procurement opportunities and financial support from these institutions.
The Future of China’s Multilateralism
The rapid and efficient establishment of its multilateral institutions shows that China has a more expansive strategic goal. MDBs allow China to counter Western narratives and strengthen Global South ties. Duarte et al. (2024) suggest this approach could create a “parallel and redundant order composed of Chinese fora,” which could overlap with Western (particularly US-led) institutions. The blurring of development assistance and geopolitical leverage, with China often accused of using MDBs to advance its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) agenda under the guise of multilateral cooperation, causes friction.
China’s growing influence in MDBs is changing institutions and global development finance. It has given the Global South much-needed resources and innovative financing mechanisms, but it raises governance, transparency, and geopolitical balance concerns. China’s multilateral objectives raise the question: will they create a cooperative global order or deepen geopolitical divides and create new dependencies?
Image of the Week📸
