De/Cypher Debates💬
Assessing Trump’s China Policy
Point: Aurko Chakrabarti
Trump’s “America First” policy aggressively counters China with tariffs, technological decoupling, and strengthened Indo-Pacific alliances, aiming to reduce dependence, protect US industries, and maintain global leadership.
Counter-Point: Priyanka Garodia & Manashjyoti Karjee
Critics highlight rising costs for Americans, ineffective trade goals, and China’s resilience through diversification. Trump’s confrontational style risks alienating Indo-Pacific allies and destabilising global partnerships.
Point
Trump’s China Policy: America First
Donald Trump’s first term saw the United States’ take a hawkish approach to China, enforcing policies to limit their growing influence in US and global markets. Trump has promised to maintain an aggressive stance and his initial actions post-election suggest he plans to. This forms part of a broader philosophy rooted in his “America First” approach to leadership on the global stage.
Economic Strategy: Tariffs and Trade Realignment Donald Trump has long championed tariffs as a central tool for reshaping trade relations, dating back to his criticism of foreign economic practices in the 1980s. During his first term, he significantly raised tariffs on Chinese imports, as well as aluminium and steel globally, to protect U.S. industries. As part of his 2024 campaign and subsequent policy announcements, Trump has proposed even steeper tariffs, including 60% on all imports from China and 10–20% global tariffs on imports from all countries. Additionally, he has threatened tariffs on specific companies, such as John Deere, for considering manufacturing shifts abroad.
In recent statements, Trump has expanded the use of tariffs beyond traditional trade disputes. He has outlined plans to impose tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China to compel action on issues like migration and drug trafficking. He has further suggested the possibility of 100% tariffs on the BRICS nations—India, China, Russia, Brazil, and South Africa—if they pursue an alternative currency to challenge the U.S. dollar in global trade.
Trump’s strategy hinges on tariffs as a multipurpose tool for “diplomatic negotiations.” His administration also supports legislative measures, such as eliminating China’s WTO benefits, empowering reciprocal tariffs that mirror foreign tariff levels, and removing China’s Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) status. The president-elect has expressed willingness to bypass established processes, using tools like Section 301 or Section 232 of trade law to impose unilateral tariffs. He has also suggested invoking the International Economic Emergency Powers Act to justify global tariffs.
While Congress has leaned toward protectionism, uncertainties remain about the implementation and scope of Trump’s tariff plans. Key questions include how quickly they will take effect, whether they will be universally applied, and how affected nations might retaliate. Trump considers these uncertainties an asset, leveraging them to keep trade partners off balance and maximise U.S. negotiation power.
Trump’s motivations for higher tariffs span several goals:encouraging onshoring by penalising companies that manufacture abroad, protecting domestic industries even if they are less competitive, reducing bilateral and global trade deficits, and achieving reciprocity in tariff rates. Additionally, tariffs are positioned as a revenue-raising tool and a bargaining chip for broader trade agreements.
At the heart of this strategy is a desire to reduce economic dependence on China. While Trump has not explicitly called for full decoupling, his proposed tariffs aim to create barriers that discourage trade. Simultaneously, the use of tariffs as leverage for political objectives—such as curbing drug trafficking or migration—reflects his administration’s broad application of economic tools in pursuit of diverse policy goals.
Technological Leadership: Countering China’s Military-Civil Fusion
The Trump administration’s strategy to counter China’s “military-civil fusion” policy, which integrates civilian research with military objectives, is set to intensify during his second term. Building on initiatives from the Biden administration, Trump’s team will inherit a Section 301 trade probe into China’s semiconductor industry, targeting “legacy chips” crucial to products like automobiles and medical devices. This investigation could pave the way for Trump’s proposed 60% tariffs on Chinese imports, escalating efforts to limit Beijing’s dominance in critical technologies.
The Biden administration launched the probe to address China’s state-driven semiconductor production, which U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai described as threatening fair competition by flooding global markets with artificially low-cost chips. Trump’s administration is expected to leverage this foundation to safeguard sectors such as AI, advanced manufacturing, and critical infrastructure, ensuring technological leadership and resilience.
Trump’s domestic initiatives, such as a $20 billion investment in U.S. data centres announced by Emirati billionaire Hussain Sajwani, aim to bolster AI and cloud infrastructure. These measures are designed to reduce reliance on foreign supply chains while strengthening America’s capacity to innovate in emerging technologies. By combining trade policies with domestic investments, Trump’s approach seeks to challenge China’s ambitions in global tech markets.
Recalibrating Alliances in the Indo-Pacific
Trump’s proposed foreign policy was pivotal in swaying voters during the recent US election. His promises of ensuring the protection of American citizens and alleviating the stress on national debt by reducing the United States’ military presence in conflict zones around the world strongly aligned with his America-First vision.
The former president championed the idea that allies must shoulder more responsibility for their defence—a principle exemplified by his efforts to push NATO members to increase their defence spending. In the Indo-Pacific, Trump’s administration advanced initiatives like AUKUS (Australia-UK-US) to strengthen collective security. While Trump reduced America’s direct military footprint in Asia, his strategy encouraged allies such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia to deepen their defence cooperation. For instance, Taiwan was urged to bolster its self-defence capabilities, ensuring it could deter potential aggression from China without over-reliance on US intervention.
A key example is the evolving US-India defence and technological partnership. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan recently highlighted this relationship’s growth, pointing out that joint initiatives like the US Chips and Science Act and India’s Semiconductor Mission are reshaping supply chains and reducing dependency on China. These collaborations, including co-production of advanced military systems and semiconductor packaging, have positioned India as a significant hub in the global technology ecosystem.
Beyond defence manufacturing, the partnership extends to maritime cooperation through initiatives like Exercise Malabar, which involves the US, India, Australia, and Japan. These efforts enhance regional readiness to address piracy, trafficking, and natural disasters, demonstrating the commitment to maintaining stability in the Indo-Pacific. Agreements allowing US Navy vessels to undergo maintenance in Indian shipyards further deepen operational ties, enabling broader collaboration across the Indian Ocean region.
Opportunities for Dialogue
The balance of US-China ties will be tested by the assertive approach that Donald Trump plans to implement going forward but reports suggest that there may be space for compromise, with Trump and Xi maintaining backchannel communications through their aides. Despite the nationalist rhetoric laid out by both parties, Xi’s has noted the need for “mutual respect” and “win-win cooperation”. The open dialogue suggests that Trump is willing to avoid immediate escalation but not at the cost of American jobs and manufacturing ability. An America-first mindset does not necessarily need to envision China in last place but rather not provide opportunities for China to exploit them.
Counter-Point
America First, At What Cost?
Donald Trump’s second term as President of the United States is expected to continue with his campaign rhetoric of aggressive nationalism and a strong containment plan for China’s growing influence. Rooted in the concepts like “Make America Great Again” (MAGA), “Never Surrender” and an unpredictable personalised style of politics, Trump is expected to adopt hard-line measures in ensuring American supremacy and Chinese containment. The most prominent measures in this include a strong tariff imposition plan, a focused development of critical and emerging technologies and the vague contours of Pacific cooperation. While partnerships are spoken about strongly, it will be interesting to see how they play out with the very ‘my-way-or-the-highway’ attitude that Trump adopts when dealing with other nations.
Trump, Tariffs and Technology
The discussion on tariffs and their implications on the states and the world economy is back in the forefront with Donald Trump taking office again in 2025. Tariffs are said to help promote protection for domestic industries against imports and reduce trade deficits. However, tariffs also tend to have effects that run beyond their intended goals. Both China and the United States stand to gain since such consequences will morph or remake domestic policies and trading systems.
Tariffs, so to say, are typically paid by American consumers and businesses. As an example, during Donald Trump’s first term, a 12% tariff increase on washing machines cost consumers an aggregate of $1.5 billion per year. A few studies demonstrate that the latest wave of tariffs may cost middle-income American households between $1,700 and $3,900 per year. While tariffs are presented as essential for economic protection, they unfairly burden American businesses and consumers.
Supply chains get distorted because of tariffs going beyond direct price hikes. It especially hits sectors of industries of imported component-based industries. Take, for example, the steel tariff imposed; it significantly increased costs for the US manufacturers and sharply reduced competitiveness for automotive and machinery-related industrial output. Many multinationals such as Chinese solar manufacturers exited the tariff zones and shifted towards Vietnam or Malaysia – effects which watered down the very purpose and protectionist intent of the very same policies.
Despite these policies, the trade deficit increased from $480 billion in 2016 to $653 billion in 2020 during Trump’s first term. In terms of other currencies, tariffs make the US dollar stronger, which indirectly makes US exports less competitive. Several savvy companies such as Stanley Black and Decker and Man Wah Holdings circumvented tariffs by shifting production to third-world countries, which exposed the weakness of unilateral protection policies.
An aggressive policy for imposing tariffs would also threaten to accelerate fragmentation in the global economy. In general, China has continued to use the Belt and Road Initiative and sought membership in agreements such as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), so that it can diversify its trade partnerships in the global arena. These overtures have reduced China’s reliance on the US markets and potentially marginalised American influence.
Domestic tariffs brought in volatility. Tariffs, fuel, inflation, and unsettled stock markets also provoked a public backlash. These dynamics limit the sustainability of such policies. Political and public pressures frequently undercut the long-term viability of aggressive tariff strategies. However, China has prepared for the challenges. Through this focus on other markets and self-reliance, it is positioned to react with resilience to American restraints. Programs like “Made in China 2025” have accelerated progress in many sectors including semiconductors, AI, and green technologies. Despite having sanctions on major firms like Huawei, China continues to lead in areas like 5G, electric vehicles, and solar panels, which reduces its vulnerability to external pressures.
The diversification of Chinese trade partnerships has also been pivotal. The Chinese export controls on critical minerals, like rare earths, can also show the Chinese precision in countering US restrictions. These give strategic leverage that enables targeted responses without escalating into full-scale traders.
The Chinese approach to preparedness can also become central. Several years of expectations have enabled Beijing to perfect its response to efforts at decoupling. Chinese leadership in 37 of the 44 global critical technologies ensures that its advancing Digital Silk Road initiative further expands China’s prowess as a powerhouse in tech and trade. At home, the dual circulation strategy by Xi Jinping focuses on domestic economic resilience by fortifying China’s capacity to sustain external shocks.
Nonetheless, challenges remain. The semiconductor sector is still one of the biggest vulnerabilities for China. The Chinese are highly dependent on the United States and their allied technologies for high-end chips. Economic decoupling could raise costs and slow innovation because of reduced global cooperation.
While aggressive policies on trade and technology could disrupt China in the short run, by partnering with investment diversification, strategic countermeasures, and self-reliance, China would stand well-positioned for sustainable growth and wield greater influence. An entangled, complex play of policies and counter-policies, this underscores a link in global trade, where no action exists in isolation and every move impacts each other and, ultimately, the larger game.
Potential Pacific Cooperation or Lack Off
The Trump administration is anticipated to build on alliances that they have in the Pacific to ensure that China’s expansionist policies are controlled. This includes focusing on regional security measures in the Pacific including military exercises, intelligence sharing and access to military bases in the region. Alliances like the QUAD and AUKUS are expected to be strengthened under Trump to achieve collective security goals with China being seen as a shared threat in the region.
Trump is expected to adopt a more confrontational approach to China when compared to the policies of Biden who was looking mostly to manage the competition with China. This confrontational style may not suit the national priorities of the allies of the United States. The economic uncertainty that is anticipated in the Trump regime could also act as a deterrent to the security needs of such partnerships and alliances. The tariff imposition that Trump seeks to impose on all foreign goods will influence trade with South Korea, Japan and Vietnam. When hit with restrictions in trading with the United States, these Asian countries could begin to look for other options and proliferate the international trading landscape.
The Asian-Pacific region would welcome closer cooperation in matters of security but remain apprehensive of the unpredictability of Trump and his transactional foreign policy. This includes the criticism Trump has levied time and again on the reliance that countries like Japan and South Korea have on the US military for their defence needs. The same can be said for the Philippines that is seeking to deepen military ties with the United States to counter Chinese aggression but finds itself grappling with the volatility that comes with Trump. Thus, Pacific cooperation to balance US-China relations while is the ideal scenario for the United States, the aggressive self-reliance that Trump endorse could jeopardise the collective needs of security.
Conclusion
The world is watching Trump’s return to power – some in gleeful anticipation and some in weariness. His panache for unpredictability, volatility and shrewd transactions will colour his second term as President. U.S.-China relations are expected to hit major roadblocks and one can only wait and see what the future holds for the two countries.
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