Written By Priyanka Garodia, Geopolitical Research Analyst – South Asia
The international world order has largely been described as anarchic and state behaviour as insecure. States are subject to a two-fold categorization that sees them as either greedy and expantionists looking to increase their sphere of interest or insecure, where military buildups are seen as the safest bet that they have. The nature of states combined with the nature of the international order has led to the establishment of what scholars of international relations call the ‘security dilemma’. Coined in 1950 by John Herz, the security dilemma rests on the premise that an insecure state, in order to protect itself, will engage in actions that become the source of insecurity for another state. This leads to the other state increasing their offensive capabilities, which in turn furthers the insecurity of the first state. What follows is the intensification of competition between states. Nations-states start investing in its offensive capabilities and a military build-up follows. The more arms a nation amasses, the more secure a state gets. However, the resultant buildup leads to an extremely precarious situation, waiting for a great catastrophe to hit on a simple miscalculation of intention. The security dilemma can provide several insights into the policies that a government adopts.
The application of the security dilemma in understanding the actions of some of the major players in the global order can be useful. The actions of the US, China and Russia can all be categorised to a large extent by the insecurity that these countries produce for each other.
China and Russia are often described as either expantionists or insecure. However, it would be more prudent to view China and Russia as both greedy and expantionist. The invasion of Ukraine by Russia is a prime example of how its imperialist tendencies intersected with its geopolitical insecurity. Russia’s belief in the Soviet sphere of influence and Ukraine’s decision to join NATO, prompted an ‘insecure and greedy’ Russia to invade the country. Similarly, Taiwan has emerged as the linchpin in China’s expantionist visions of itself. Added to the mix is Taiwan’s closeness with the United States and its quest for democratic rule. Even the smallest action by Taiwan activates China’s insecurities, and it feels threatened. Russian and Chinese actions have a direct impact on the strategic calculations and decisions that the United States makes. The United States has to be prepared for any situation with Russia and China, including a military conflict that could have catastrophic implications for not just the countries involved but also the global world, given that all of these states are nuclear powers.
State behavior does not adhere to the tenants of international relations theories. Nonetheless, by employing ideas such as the security dilemma, one can develop hypothetical situations and scenarios that might occur, as well as comprehend the reasoning behind state action. This allows analysts, policymakers, and decision-makers to make better informed decisions and ensure a state of preparedness when it deals with great power rivalry.
