Af-Pak De/Cypher
See the Complete Map and report here: https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2022/12/al-qaeda-leaders-use-afghanistan-as-a-safe-haven.php
The Border Situation
On 6th September 2023, four Pakistani security personnel were killed as large number militants attempted to enter Pakistan from Afghanistan in Chitral bordering the Afghan province of Nuristan. The attempt was foiled by troops deployed along the border. More than 16 militants were killed. In Lower Chitral, militants attacked two security check posts in the southern part of the district in the early hours. The pre-dawn attack targeted check posts in Astui Pass and Jinjiret Koh situated in the south of Lower Chitral. Astui Pass is located in the Bumburet Valley, one of the three valleys in southern Chitral where the Kalash community resides. The outlawed Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) reportedly claimed responsibility for the attack through its spokesperson, Mohammad Khorasani. For the past few days, reports were being circulated across Chitral regarding an imminent militant attack and security was put on high alert. In August 2011, a similar cross-border attack on several check posts falling within the limits of the Drosh and Arandu police stations left dozens of police and paramilitary personnel dead.
On the same day, a border skirmish erupted between Pakistani and Afghan border security forces at Torkham, shutting the busiest trade crossing between the two countries. At least two people, including a Frontier Corps (FC) official, were injured. Officials in Pakistan blamed the other side for starting the midday firefight, which lasted for around two hours and came after the Afghan authorities started building a checkpoint on their side in a prohibited area, close to the main border crossing. Officials said the Afghan authorities already had a checkpoint, commonly known as the Larram Post, in the vicinity, but they started building another post over a small hill without discussing it with the Pakistani side. However, the Afghan Taliban government blamed Pakistan. “Pakistani forces attacked the Afghan side when Afghan forces wanted to reactivate their old outpost with an excavator,” said Quraishi Badloon, an official for the information and culture directorate in Afghanistan’s eastern Nangarhar province. The Torkham border crossing still remains closed. Hundreds of trucks laden with goods have been halted and traders have complained that trade is affected. On 9th September Taliban administration’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs released a statement saying “The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan deems the closure of Torkham gate and opening of fire on Afghan security forces by the Pakistani side contrary to good neighbourliness. The closure of Torkham gate can adversely affect bilateral and regional trade, and cause trade and financial losses to common mercantile class on both sides,”.
Read More: Zahiruddin, Dawn. Ibrahim Shinwari, Dawn. Mohammad Yunus Yawar and Charlotte Greenfield, Reuters.
Security Report – Afghanistan
A United Nations report released on 10th September 2023, has claimed that methamphetamine trafficking in and around Afghanistan has surged in recent years, even as the Taliban have curbed heroin trafficking since taking power. According to the report, meth seizures in and around Afghanistan jumped 12-fold in the five years through 2021. Between 2019 and 2022, nearby countries such as Iran and Pakistan also reported increased seizures. Countries as far away as France and Australia have reported seizing methamphetamine that likely originated in Afghanistan. Afghanistan is home to the ephedra plant, which can be used to make methamphetamine, but United Nations Office of Drugs and Crime said the quantities needed to produce the drug and the risk of unreliable crops meant that Afghanistan’s production did not depend on the plant alone.
Read More: Reuters, Dawn.
Security Report – Pakistan
Women in Pakistan are not just the victims of terrorism. Sometimes they are the perpetrators of political violence. Baloch Liberation Army, Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan and Islamic State Khorasan have deployed female operatives in different capacities, from logistical support to suicide bomber, over the years. Women are no longer limited to the sidelines of terror operations but are increasingly supporting operations by facilitating recruitment, fundraising, and disseminating propaganda. A shift towards utilizing female fighters for pragmatic reasons would not be without precedent, as evidenced in case studies of Boko Haram or Islamic State affiliates in Southeast Asia. Pakistan presents a largely “untapped female operative market”.
Read More: Dr. Amira Jadoon and Iqraa Bukhari, 9Dashline
National Politics
The All Pakistan Lawyers Convention has called for countrywide protests on 14th September 2023, to defend civilian supremacy. Their Primary demand is for Election Commission to hold general elections according to the Constitution. General elections are required to be held within 90 days of the dissolution of the assemblies. The Convention emphasized that no caretaker government can go beyond 90 days thereafter it becomes unconstitutional and illegal. The caretaker governments in the Punjab and KP have already become unconstitutional and are liable to be removed. They further said that every civilian is entitled to fair trial and due process before the courts established by the Constitution and laws framed thereunder and trial of civilians before military courts is a complete negation of fair trial, due process and other fundamental rights guaranteed under the Constitution. It has been decided that on 14th September, lawyers will demonstrate peaceful protests in their respective Bar Associations in shape of rallies and marches to defend and uphold the Constitution.
Read More: Shahid Rao, The Nation
Muhammad Khurshid Khan of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) won by-elections held in GBLA 13 Astore 1 seat of Gilgit-Baltistan.The unofficial, incomplete results of all 56 polling stations have been received, according to which Muhammad Khurshid Khan of Tehreek-e-Insaf won with 6,219 votes, while Rana Farman Ali of Muslim League-N secured 5,225 votes. This seat was vacant after the disqualification of former Chief Minister Khalid Khurshid in a fake degree case.
Read More: Web Desk, Bol News
Business and Economy
Over 3,300 Pakistani companies joined the Dubai Chamber of Commerce (DCC) in the first quarter of 2023, according to Pakistan’s Ambassador to UAE Faisal Niaz Tirmizi. He said that the development reflected the dynamism of Pakistani businesses and the increasing attractiveness of the UAE as an investment destination. He further added that during the last year, the number of Pakistani expatriates increased from around 1.6 million to 1.8 million in the Emirates.
Read More: Web Desk, Bol News
Pakistan is expected to sign a free trade agreement (FTA) with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) during the upcoming visit of an Emirati delegation in the last week of September, caretaker Commerce Minister Dr Gohar Ejaz announced on Sunday. UAE is Pakistan’s third-largest trade partner after China and the United States. The Gulf country is also home to an estimated 1.8 million Pakistani expatriates and hence the second-largest source of remittances of more than E240 million after Saudi Arabia.
Read More: APP, The Express Tribune
Caretaker Prime Minister Anwaarul Haq Kakar unveiled a new, simplified visa system to welcome foreign businessmen wishing to visit Pakistan. Following the fifth meeting of the Apex Committee of the Special Investment Facilitation Council, PM Kakar announced that foreign business visitors could obtain visas based on a single document from their home country or international business organizations. PM noted that if Pakistan’s business chambers or organizations issue a document to a foreign businessman, they would also be granted easy visas.
Read More: Web Desk, Bol News
Foreign Affairs
In a media Report on 10th September, Senator Chris Van Hollen, a Democrat senator from the state of Maryland dismissed the impression that the United States was interfering in Pakistani politics as completely false, saying that Washington wanted a strong bilateral relationship with Islamabad. He stressed that it was the power and will of the people of Pakistan to choose the leadership and the US interest was in free and fair elections in any democratic country, including Pakistan.
Read More: News Desk, The Express Tribune
Views and Analysis
In this Article, Martin Stanton, a retired United States Army officer, compares the Soviet efforts to build the Army of the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan (DRA) in the 1980s and the US efforts to build the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) of the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (GIRoA) in 2000s. He analysis the different approaches taken by the Superpowers towards the same objective of building a modern military institution in Afghanistan. The conclusion in the article states that the Soviet operation was a much more successful one compared to the US, even after the US invested billions more than the Soviets. The Soviets went into Afghanistan knowing they weren’t going to stay forever. The US on the other hand, informally but at the very highest levels operated on the assumption that we wouldbe in Afghanistan over multiple decades. US provided much higher amounts of military aid and ground level tactical support to ANDSF, which ultimately made the Afghans corrupt and overdependent on US. Compared to the relatively austere environment in which the Soviets supported the DRA Army, the efforts of the US and its partner nations to train, resource, and sustain the ANDSF can only be described as “lavish”. Unlike the callous Soviets, the US/Coalition attitude towards their Afghan partners was far more solicitous. Up to 2014 American advisors were on hand much farther down in the tactical structure than their Soviet predecessors.
Read More: Helicopter Parents: Comparing the US and Soviet efforts to build the Afghan Army By Martin Stanton
Short Essay
Pakistan is facing a deteriorating border situation at the Durand Line. As Pakistani Taliban or TTP continues its aggressive campaign against the state of Pakistan, it becomes more dificult for the Afghan Taliban to have cordial relatioship with Islamabad.
Read More: A never-ending conflict, De/Cypher Asia
Infographic
Pakistan’s Pakistan Foreign Investment: Direct Investment: Outflow: U.A.E from Jul 2012 to Jul 2023
Bangladesh De/Cypher
Top Stories from this week
UN ‘concerned’ by harassment of human rights defenders in Bangladesh
On Tuesday, the UN human rights chief expressed concern about the continued harassment and detention of human rights defenders in Bangladesh, including Nobel laureate Mohammad Yunus. The UN urged authorities to create a safe and enabling environment for activists and civil society leaders. Read more: Aljazeera
WHO: Bangladesh Hit by Worst Dengue Outbreak on Record
On Wednesday, the WHO issued a statement detailing how Bangladesh is experiencing its worst dengue outbreak on record, with over 135,000 cases and 650 deaths reported since April. Climate change, according to the WHO, has aided in the spread of the disease. Read more: VOA News
Bangladeshi officials call for increased Belt and Road cooperation
On Friday, Bangladeshi officials called for increased cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), claiming that the initiative has brought significant changes to the South Asian country. They emphasised the BRI’s role in bolstering Bangladesh’s position in the regional trade network, increasing investment and trade, and addressing infrastructure deficits. Read more: Xinhua
International Outlook
On Sunday, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina returned home from the G20 summit in New Delhi. She met bilaterally with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and attended various summit sessions, where she delivered two speeches. She also met with the leaders of Argentina, South Korea, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia. Read More: The Daily Observer
Relevant Stories
On Wednesday, US National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby stated that the US position on Bangladesh remains unchanged, explaining that the US supports democratic institutions and the will of the Bangladeshi people. Kirby made these remarks during a press conference in which he addressed a journalist’s concerns about allegations levelled against the United States. He emphasised the US’s support for free and fair elections, as well as their commitment to championing the Bangladeshi people’s aspirations. Read more: Bangi News
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina launched the Global Biofuels Alliance (GBA) with US President Joe Biden and other world leaders to help reduce the world’s reliance on fossil fuels. The GBA aims to improve collaboration and increase the use of sustainable biofuels in various sectors, including transportation. Read More: The Daily Star
At the G20 Summit in New Delhi, Bangladesh’s Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina, emphasised the urgent need to operationalise the Loss and Damage Fund to address climate-induced migration. Despite its minor contribution to climate change, Bangladesh has been affected greatly as a result of its consequences. Hasina also expressed concern about the Rohingya refugee crisis, urging their return to Myanmar with continued humanitarian assistance. Read more: The Daily Star
Following Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Bangladesh and India signed three Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs). The MoUs include agricultural research and education collaboration, an extension of the Cultural Exchange Programme, and a collaboration between Bangladesh Bank and the National Payments Corporation of India for network connectivity to facilitate transactions. During a press conference, Foreign Minister AK Abdul Momen provided this information. Read more: Prothom Alo
On Saturday, Iwama Kiminori, Japan’s Ambassador to Bangladesh, expressed his country’s interest in increasing investment in Bangladesh’s economic zones. He also stated that Japan is working to improve the two countries’ commercial relationship and communication, and that Japan will collaborate with Bangladesh to expand employment opportunities in Japan and travel for Bangladeshis to Japan. Read more: Daily Industry
On Sunday, French President Emmanuel Macron arrived in Bangladesh for the first time in 33 years. The Bangladesh Armed Forces greeted him with a red-carpet reception at Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport and provided him with a guard of honour. During Macron’s two-day visit, the two countries are expected to discuss ways to boost trade and investment, climate change, and regulated migration. Read more: The Financial Express
National Politics
On Friday, police detained five leaders and activists of the Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami during a secret meeting at a residence in the Shahbandar area of Moulvibazar, Bangladesh. A case against them is currently being prepared. Read more: Prothom Alo
On Saturday, the ruling Awami League’s Dhaka South City unit in Bangladesh held a ‘peace and development rally’ in front of the party’s central office on Bangabandhu Avenue. The rally aimed to raise awareness about the Awami League-led government’s development efforts while also highlighting what they saw as opposition parties causing chaos. The rally’s chief guest was Awami League General Secretary Obaidul Quader. Read more: New Age
On Sunday, twenty-five retired Bangladesh Armed Forces officers officially joined the opposition party Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). The ceremony was held at the BNP chairperson’s political office in Gulshan, and they were greeted by BNP Secretary-General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir. The retired officers included 19 from the Bangladesh Army, two from the Bangladesh Navy, and four from the Bangladesh Air Force, indicating a significant military addition to the BNP’s ranks. Read more: The Daily Observer
Quotes of the week
Statements from Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP)
Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, Secretary General of the BNP spoke at a mass procession on Saturday:
“You (leaders and activists) have to bear more pains next to topple this government and establish a pro-people one,” he told a rally on Saturday outside the party’s Nayapaltan headquarters. Read more: Jago News 24
Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, Secretary General of the BNP spoke at a discussion meeting on Sunday:
“You (ruling party) are so bankrupt and helpless that you are excited by a selfie with Biden (US President). You’re now canvassing because you’ve won” Read more: The Daily Sun
BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir claimed on Sunday that the country’s dengue outbreak has become an epidemic due to rampant corruption in the health sector:
“Due to its incompetence and corruption, the government has utterly failed to prevent dengue.” Read more: Dhaka Tribune
Statements from Awami League (AL)
Obaidul Quader, general secretary of the ruling Bangladesh AL, addressed a peace rally in front of the party’s main office building on Saturday:
“The BNP was expecting a White House sanction against Bangladesh.” But what is seen? In Delhi, Biden took a selfie with Sheikh Hasina accompanied by Putul. BNP leaders were shocked when they saw the photo,” Read more: New Age
Hasan Mahmud, Minister of Information and Broadcasting, held a press conference on Sunday:
“It is clear from Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir’s statement that their one-point demand cannot be met. And Fakhrul has already admitted it in his statement.” Read more: Prothom Alo
Business and Economy
According to Bangladesh Bank data, remittance inflows to Dhaka, Bangladesh’s capital, decreased by 13.14% during fiscal year 2023, falling to $6.9 billion from $8 billion in FY2021. This decline is attributed to a disparity in exchange rates between the informal (kerb market) and formal channels. Remitters receive higher rates through the kerb market, leading to an increase in the use of informal channels such as hundi, which has an impact on the country’s economy. Remittances fell by 21% in August 2023, contributing to economic challenges. The declining trend in remittances is concerning for the country’s economy, as it affects expectations for financial inflows. Read more: The Business Post
Relevant Stories
According to Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics data, the country’s inflation rate reached 9.92% in August 2023, the highest since fiscal year 2011. The increased inflation is primarily due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which caused global market prices to skyrocket, as well as domestic issues related to USD supply. While global prices have begun to level off, Bangladesh continues to face persistent inflationary pressures. Read more: The Business Post
Bangladesh’s foreign exchange reserves have decreased to $21.70 billion after making import payments totalling $1.36 billion through the Asian Clearing Union (ACU). The country’s central bank recently cleared import bills for July and August and sold $75 million worth of dollar currency to other banks from the reserve. Prior to these transactions, the foreign exchange reserves stood at $23 billion. Read more: The Financial Express
Nguyen Manh Cuong, Vietnam’s Ambassador to Bangladesh, expressed his country’s strong friendship with Bangladesh, emphasising the two countries’ mutual support. He noted that both countries are on track to meet their $2 billion trade goal, with bilateral trade volume reaching nearly $1.5 billion last year and $554.8 million in the first half of 2023. Read more: The Financial Express
Bangladesh has risen dramatically in the Economist Intelligence Unit’s (EIU) China Going Global Investment Index 2023, ranking as the 12th most appealing destination for Chinese investors, an increase of 40 places in a decade. Bangladesh’s appeal stems from its status as a global business hub, cultural ties to China, and neutrality in tensions between China and the West. Read more: The Business Post
In the last five years, the Hortex Foundation, in collaboration with the Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE), has successfully generated over 18,000 agro entrepreneurs, boosting agricultural trade across 30 districts in Bangladesh. These efforts have resulted in significant agricultural trade and exports, benefiting both farmers and entrepreneurs. Read more: The Financial Express
Rohingya Refugee Situation
Border guards from Bangladesh and Myanmar are meeting to set a date for the repatriation of Rohingya citizens who were forcibly displaced from Myanmar. The meeting will take place in the Bandarban district of Bangladesh, at the Bangladesh-Myanmar friendship bridge. During this meeting, Bangladesh hopes to finalise the date for the repatriation of Rohingya refugees. Restrooms and transit camps near the Bangladesh-Myanmar border are also being established for returning Rohingya refugees. Approximately 9.6 million Rohingya are currently being housed in camps in Cox’s Bazar, with repatriation efforts underway. Read more: Kaler Kantho
Relevant Stories
The UN has asked for more money to help Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh. They also set aside $8 million for Rohingya refugees in Cox’s Bazar and Bhasan Char camps. The humanitarian funding shortfall for the Rohingya refugee response remains a concern, with the refugees relying on international community assistance. The UN Refugee Agency and its partners launched the Joint Response Plan, which had an initial appeal of $876 million but had only received 30.6% of the funding as of September 6. Read more: Andalu Ajnasi
The Rohingya refugee camps in Cox’s Bazar have a high birth rate, with around 100 children born every day, causing concerns and crises. The high birth rate is attributed to a lack of interest in family planning, an increase in rations, and a lack of entertainment options. Although there are efforts to raise awareness and provide family planning services, repatriation remains a critical issue. Read more: Somoy News
As part of the Rohingya repatriation efforts, temporary rest camps and repatriation camps are being built in Ghumdhum, Naikshyongchari, and Bandarban. Repatriation will entail transporting Rohingyas first to a temporary rest camp, then to a repatriation camp, and finally back to Myanmar. Read more: Prothom Alo
Latest in Society
Between Saturday and Sunday (uptil 8am) Bangladesh recorded 14 dengue-related deaths and admitted 2,993 patients to various hospitals. This surge brings the total number of dengue deaths in the country to 730 for the year, the highest since the disease was first detected in 2000. Of these deaths, 424 were female, and 306 were male. The mosquito-borne disease is no longer limited to Dhaka city but has spread throughout all 64 districts of Bangladesh. Read more: Jago News 24
A roundtable discussion titled ‘Expatriate workers’ safety and the scope for justice’ emphasised the importance of strict oversight of expatriate workers’ safety in their host countries. The discussion, which took place in Dhaka, Bangladesh, addressed concerns about expatriate workers becoming ill soon after leaving the country and the lack of post-mortem examinations for deceased workers upon their return. Read more: Prothom Alo
Additional Deputy Commissioner Harun-Ar-Rashid of Dhaka Metropolitan Police’s (DMP) Ramna Zone was withdrawn from his position and transferred to the Armed Police Battalion (APBn) following allegations of beating two central leaders of Bangladesh Chhatra League, the student wing of the ruling Bangladesh Awami League. The incident occurred at Shahbagh police station, where the police allegedly beat the two leaders, despite their identification as BCL leaders. Read more: Prothom Alo
Views and Analysis
Politics
Avinash Paliwal on What Lies Ahead for Bangladesh
The opposition has threatened to boycott the upcoming general elections in Bangladesh in January 2024 if their demand for elections under a caretaker government is not met. The current political impasse could open the door to multiple violent paths, with the possibility of decentralised political violence and widening political fault lines. Read more: The Diplomat
Economy
Will the BRICS Dethrone the U.S. Dollar?
The recent BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) summit invited the Emirates, Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Argentina, and Ethiopia to join the group, sparking speculation about the impact on the US dollar’s status as a global reserve currency. However, the author contends that BRICS or similar groups are unlikely to challenge the US dollar’s status. Read more: Mises Institute
Climate
Bangladesh is Forging Ahead with a Green Foreign Policy
Bangladesh, one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change, is pursuing a green foreign policy to combat climate change and strengthen international partnerships. Through diplomatic outreach, the country hopes to form “green partnerships” focused on capacity development, technology transfer, and sharing best practises. Read more: South Asian Voices
Infographic
The oil price slump between 2015-2016 had a significant impact on the economies of the Gulf countries, which are a major source of remittances for Bangladesh. As a result, many Bangladeshi workers in the Gulf countries lost their jobs or had their wages cut, which led to a decline in remittances.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this newsletter are solely those of the respective authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policies or positions of the publishers.
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