De/Cypher Data Dive 📈
At the end of 2022, households held approximately $12 trillion in offshore assets, accounting for 12% of global GDP. In South Asia, Afghanistan owns more offshore financial wealth (% of GDP). Offshore financial wealth refers to the equities, bonds, mutual fund shares, and associated bank deposits owned by households in banks outside of their country of residency.
Af-Pak De/Cypher
20 May, 2024
Top Stories📜 this week
Pakistan test-fires a new rocket system developed by its military, the army says
Pakistan’s military said it successfully test-fired Wednesday a short-range, indigenously developed rocket system meant to boost its ability to deter any offensive action from archenemy and neighbor India. According to a military statement, the Fatah-II Guided Rocket System has a range of 400 kilometers (240 miles), as well as a state-of-the-art navigation system, unique trajectory, and maneuverable features. Read more: AP News
Concern over resurfacing of polio in three key regions
While the Technical Advisory Group (TAG) for polio eradication is scheduled to review Pak-Afghan progress at the upcoming Doha meeting, the reemergence of the virus in Karachi, Quetta Block, and Peshawar-Khyber has become a cause of concern for health experts. A polio expert, who had held a key position at the National Emergency Operation Centre (NEOC), said the three core areas of Karachi, Quetta block (Quetta, Pishin, Killa Abdullah, Chaman) and Peshawar-Khyber have once again become hubs for poliovirus transmission to the rest of Pakistan and Afghanistan. Read more: Dawn
Flash floods due to unusually heavy seasonal rains kill at least 68 people in Afghanistan
Flash floods in western Afghanistan have killed 50 people, with more missing, as reported by a Taliban official based on initial findings, suggesting the toll could increase. Unusually heavy seasonal rains in Afghanistan have contributed to the deadly flash floods. Ghor province faced severe financial losses with property damage and agricultural land destruction, impacting thousands of homes, following devastating floods in the region. Read more: Ground News
Dubai Unlocked: Pakistanis’ $12.5bn property empire
A data leak in Dubai exposes the wealth of Pakistan in offshore real estate. The FBR chairman says Dubai leaks will prompt investigation, trigger new tax laws. Pakistan’s political, media, military and business elite have been listed as owners in the Dubai Data leaks. The leaked data provides a detailed overview of hundreds of thousands of properties in Dubai and information about their ownership or usage, largely from 2020 and 2022. While 17,000 Pakistani citizens are listed owners in the 2022 leak, academics using the data and additional sources put the actual number of Pakistani owners of residential property in Dubai at 22,000. They further estimate that the apartments and villas may have been worth more than $10 billion at the start of 2022, but with the more than 25 per cent increase in property prices over the last two years, the real worth of Pakistanis’ residential properties in Dubai could now be well above $12.5bn. Read more: Dawn
Islamic State claims responsibility for deadly tourist attack in Afghanistan
The Taliban says four people were arrested over an attack at the Bamiyan heritage site that killed three Spanish visitors and an Afghan. The Islamic State has claimed responsibility for the attack by gunmen in Afghanistan’s central Bamiyan province that killed three Spanish tourists on Friday. The Taliban’s interior ministry spokesperson, Abdul Mateen Qani, said on Sunday that four people had been arrested over the attack. One Afghan citizen was also killed, and four foreigners and three Afghans were injured in the attack, he added. Read more: The Guardian
Russia Expands Oil Trade South via Afghanistan, Seeking Warm Water Ports
Afghanistan is emerging as a key transit point for Russian oil as the Kremlin seeks to establish new trade routes to Asia and the Middle East. Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Afghanistan announced plans to build a logistics center in Herat province in western Afghanistan. The proposed hub will operate as part of the wider International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a 7,200 kilometer intergovernmental transport project first established in 2000 by Iran, Russia, and India. The list of participants in INSTC later expanded to 14, including Oman, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Ukraine is also a member, although the current conflict has put a stop to its active participation. he new logistics hub in Afghanistan will supposedly serve as a distribution channel, offloading tanks and other commodities from the road onto rail and then toward seaports in Iran, Pakistan, and India to be shipped to the Middle East and Asia-Pacific region. Read more: The Diplomat
Pakistani students return from Kyrgyzstan after mob violence in Bishkek
The Pakistani government has repatriated 140 students from Kyrgyzstan after mobs attacked foreign citizens in the capital, Bishkek, over the weekend. A special flight bringing the first batch of Pakistani students home landed at an airport in Lahore on Saturday night, with Islamabad planning to use more such flights to bring back citizens who want to leave Bishkek after violent incidents in the Kyrgyz capital. On Friday, hundreds of Kyrgyz men in Bishkek attacked buildings where foreign students live, including Pakistan citizens who are among thousands studying and working in the Central Asian country. The angry mob reportedly targeted these residences after videos of a brawl earlier this month between Krygyz and Egyptian students went viral online, prompting anti-foreigner sentiment over the past week. The Kyrgyz government deployed forces on Friday to mitigate the violence. Read more: Arab News
Imran Khan Wins Bail From Pakistan Court in Misuse of Power Case
A Pakistani court granted bail to former Prime Minister Imran Khan in a case where he was charged with legalizing billions of rupees of a business tycoon when he was in power in 2019. The jailed leader won’t be set free as he is serving a sentence in other cases. A two-member panel of Islamabad High Court judges accepted Khan’s appeal for bail, former leader’s lawyer Shoaib Shaheen confirmed. The National Accountability Bureau alleged Khan and his wife obtained land from a real estate developer, Malik Riaz, in return for legalizing the equivalent to $240 million in funds that were retrieved from the UK’s National Crime Agency. Read more: Bloomberg
Turkish FM Hakan Fidan arrives in Islamabad on official visit
The Turkish FM of Turkiye Hakan Fidan arrived in Islamabad on Sunday on a two-day official visit to Pakistan. Ambassador Ahmed Naseem Warraich, the Additional Foreign Secretary (Afghanistan & West Asia), received FM Fidan. He will call on Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif and hold extensive discussions with Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Senator Mohammad Ishaq Dar, a Foreign Office statement said. The two sides will review the state of bilateral relations and assess preparations for upcoming high-level engagements between the two countries. Read more: Express Tribune
Pakistan needs a home-grown economic reform plan to chart a path to sustainable growth
Pakistan no longer faces an economic emergency as it did last year when it teetered on the edge of sovereign debt default. It has come out of that crisis and managed to establish a modicum of stability and improve market sentiment. This creates a window of opportunity for the government to evolve an economic vision and craft a home-grown economic plan to drive a robust recovery and prevent the country’s slide into another crisis. Although they prevented a collapse, the IMF bailout package and the rollover of foreign loans will not be enough to guarantee economic recovery. A credible plan should address the country’s weak macroeconomic fundamentals, which persist and make the nascent recovery very fragile. Unless they are tackled head-on, they will spark another crisis. Read more: Dawn
Tribal elders help Pakistan, Afghanistan agree to truce
A jirga comprising tribal elders and officials from Pakistan and Afghanistan agreed to a ceasefire on Saturday after four days of clashes on the border in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The skirmishes between the forces of Pakistan and Afghanistan escalated on Friday, prompting large-scale displacement from villages and settlements near the Kharlachi border crossing in Kurram. The area is once again at peace thanks to the truce, and the border crossing should reopen soon. Read more: Dawn
The Hazara Crisis in Afghanistan
Written By Priyanka Garodia, Geopolitical Research Analyst – South Asia
Human Rights Watch released a report in May 2024 highlighting the vulnerability of the Hazara community in Afghanistan. The Hazaras are an ethno-religious community in Afghanistan who have faced systematic marginalization and discrimination. The community lacks basic amenities, and basic security needs like food, health care, environmental protection and education. They comprise 19% of the population of Afghanistan and are the third largest ethnic group in Afghanistan. The Pashtuns make up the majority ethnic group in Afghanistan.
Easily identifiable due to their Turkish-Mongolian features, they are Shia Muslims in a predominantly Sunni country. The social fabric of Afghanistan is a complicated landscape, given the fact that religious communities are often further divided along the lines of tribal identity. Since the establishment of the modern state through violence, social disintegration, and ethnic manipulation by King Amir Abdur Rahman, the community has been estranged from the majority of Afghans. “Hazaras do not all share a single religious affinity, but rather represent a plurality of positions across branches of Islam and atheism.” They espouse liberal and often democratic views that run in strict contradiction with the hardline interpretation of Islam by the Taliban.
The Hazara community has championed the rights of women, including the right to education, among others. “In addition, Shias were deemed as Kafirs, unbelievers or non-Muslims, which had an inevitable impact on the image of Hazaras in the extremely traditional Islamic state of Afghanistan.” The ISKP, or ISIS-Khorasan, a terrorist outfit in the Afghani Emirate, has been attacking Hazara mosques in Kabul, Kandahar, Kunduz, and other places. A radical hardline organization responsible for a recent terror attack in Moscow, the group has done little to hide their animosity towards the Hazara community.
The Hazaras are concentrated in the area of Hazarajat, which is cut off from the rest of the country due to its remoteness. This remoteness, compounded with the state’s exclusion of the Hazaras from its political, social, and economic services, has exacerbated their cycle of suffering and despair. These structural inequalities stem from the common association of Afghani identity being seen as synonymous with Pashtun identity. Some of the pertinent problems faced by the community include:
- Lack of Infrastructural Development: The Hazarajat region of Afghanistan has limited fertility and, owing to its climatic conditions and snow cover, remains inaccessible by road in the winter. The roads are underdeveloped, and the region lacks basic infrastructure. This forced the Hazara community to migrate to better areas – settling in Kabul, Mazar-e Sharif and Herat. The Hazara settlements in Kabul have abysmal facilities and lack basic infrastructure.
- Lack of Healthcare Facilities: Most districts in Hazarajat do not have proper drainage, far off hospitals, and lack of proper latrines, baths and covered ditches, which has led to sanitation concerns. The lack of medical facilities, doctors, and medical supplies have added to the health crisis faced by the people. Death from Typhoid and pregnancy, are some of the consequences of the lack of investment in healthcare in the region.
- Lack of Education: the group has historically faced lesser levels of education, including limited and no access to schools, teachers, buildings, books, etc. They have faced cultural isolation and unbalanced cultural policies that have resulted in the loss of the nuances of their cultural expression.
- Increasing Terrorist Attacks: The Taliban, followed now by the ISKP, have attacked the areas inhabited by the Hazara as part of a systematic campaign of terror against the community. They have attacked Shia places of worship, like mosques and even public arenas, where the Hazara people have settled. Historic attacks like the Mazar-e-Sharif massacre that killed 2000 people in 1998; the Robatak Pass massacre in 2000 that left 31 people dead; the Yakaolang massacre in 2001 that saw the death of 300 Hazaras; and the destruction of the Bamiyan Buddha statues by the Taliban in 2001 are all examples of the use of terror against the Hazaras. Mosques, cultural centres, and education centres have come under attack by ISIS.
Conclusion: The reason for the persecution and systemic marginalization of the Hazara community in Afghanistan lacks international attention. Most of the information about the community that comes to light is usually from western sources. All action in Afghanistan stems from western and outsider information, where the people have no agency and do not get to provide their side of the story for the world to see. The international community must shift its focus to the Hazaras and the possible genocide they face in Afghanistan today.
Bangladesh De/Cypher
20 May, 2024
Top Stories📜 this week
Awami League and alliance leaders step up ties with China
A nine-member delegation from the Awami League-led 14 Party alliance has arrived in Kunming, China, to strengthen cultural exchanges and strategic cooperation with the Communist Party of China. This visit builds on a 2019 Memorandum of Understanding, which aimed to foster mutual respect and partnership between the two parties. Read more: Prothom Alo
Dhaka worried over attacks on Bangladeshi students in Kyrgyzstan
Dhaka expressed deep concern about recent attacks on Bangladeshi students in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, through Foreign Minister Dr. Hasan Mahmud. The Bangladeshi ambassador in Tashkent has been instructed to visit Bishkek to ensure the students’ safety. The Bangladesh embassy in Uzbekistan, which is in charge of Kyrgyzstan, is in constant communication with the students and Kyrgyz officials, and has provided an emergency contact number for students in Bishkek. There have been no reports of serious injuries among students thus far. Read more: Daily Sun
Bangladesh lawmaker goes missing after going to India for treatment
Anwarul Azim Anar, the lawmaker from Jhenaidah-4 constituency in Bangladesh, has been missing since May 14, after traveling to India for medical treatment on May 11. His family and party members lost contact with him, and his phone remains unreachable. His wife and daughters reported the disappearance to the authorities in Dhaka, while relatives went to India to search for him without success. The prime minister and high-ranking party officials have been informed, and local police have notified higher authorities due to the international nature of the incident. Read more: New Age
India- Bangladesh Bilateral meeting held to discuss the road-map for implementation of capacity building programs for civil servants of Bangladesh
A bilateral meeting between the Secretary of India’s Department of Administrative Reforms and Public Grievances and senior officials from Bangladesh’s Ministry of Public Administration discussed a number of capacity-building projects. These included plans for programs for faculty and senior civil servants, an alumni meeting, and attendance at an e-Governance conference. Agreements were made for specific programs, including a one-week program at NCGG and two-week programs for faculty members in July and September 2024, with the goal of improving skills and collaboration between the two countries. Both parties also agreed to continue working together on additional capacity-building programs for civil servants from 2025 through 2030. Read more: PIB
Australian FM’s Visit: Trade, investment, Rohingya, regional security to get priority
Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong is scheduled to visit Bangladesh on May 21-22 to strengthen bilateral relations and discuss key issues such as trade, investment, the Rohingya crisis, and regional security. The visit aims to strengthen cooperation in sustainable energy, maritime security, technology transfer, and the preservation of a free and open Indo-Pacific region. Wong, accompanied by a small delegation, intends to visit the Rohingya camps and assess the situation. The visit demonstrates Australia’s determination to assist Bangladesh in its efforts to repatriate Rohingya refugees and provide humanitarian aid. Both countries intend to strengthen their partnership through the recently signed Trade and Investment Framework Arrangement (TIFA). Read more: BD Pratidin
Bangladesh, Ireland hold first ever foreign office consultations
Bangladesh and Ireland held their first foreign office consultations (FOC) in Dublin on May 13, 2024, led by Foreign Secretary Masud Bin Momen and his Irish counterpart, Secretary-General Joseph Hackett. They signed the first memorandum of understanding (MoU) for biennial consultations, marking an important milestone in their 52-year diplomatic relationship. The discussions covered bilateral relations, trade, investment, employment, migration, climate cooperation, and the well-being of the Bangladeshi diaspora in Ireland. They also talked about regional and international issues, like the Gaza situation, the Ukraine conflict, and the Rohingya crisis. Read more: Prothom Alo
UK provides $50m debt commitment for MSMEs, women entrepreneurs
The British International Investment (BII) has announced a $50 million loan commitment to Bangladesh’s BRAC Bank to help grow micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) and female-led businesses. This investment aims to boost economic opportunities and job creation for small businesses and female entrepreneurs in Bangladesh, demonstrating the UK’s commitment to inclusive and sustainable development. The funding will also assist BRAC Bank in expanding credit facilities, strengthening foreign exchange positions, and supporting up to 3,500 MSMEs and female entrepreneurs, all in accordance with the UN Sustainable Development Goals of gender equality, economic growth, and innovation. Read more: Business Post
USDA investing $34m in Bangladesh to achieve sustainable results in climate resilience
The US Embassy in Dhaka, through the Food for Progress Programme, is investing more than $34 million in a five-year project to achieve long-term climate resilience in Bangladesh. The project, led by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), will work with the Ministry of Fisheries and Livestock and the Bangladesh Livestock Research Institute to improve livestock sector efficiency and climate resilience. Over 250,000 livestock farmers in 16 targeted districts will benefit from the project’s introduction of advanced production technologies, improved animal health, and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. It also aims to boost livestock sales by $940 million over the next five years while supporting Bangladesh’s national climate goals. Read more: The Financial Express
Bangladesh to launch US roadshow with 30 banks’ MDs to advertise offshore services
Bangladesh is organizing a significant roadshow in the United States on May 24 with 30 managing directors from various domestic banks to attract dollar deposits in the wake of recent foreign exchange fluctuations. A total of 45 officials, including the MDs of 30 banks, will take part in the special promotion program aimed at increasing US dollar deposits through offshore accounts. This is the first large gathering of Bangladeshi bank MDs abroad. Commercial banks are launching special campaigns to increase dollar deposits, encouraging expatriates to send dollars through banking channels. The event, which focuses on Offshore Banking Fixed Deposits for Expats, will be attended by Bangladesh Ambassador to the United States Mohammad Imran and other dignitaries, highlighting Bangladeshi banks’ growing interest in diversifying their foreign currency reserves. Read more: The Business Standard
Taka 1,200b & Taka 1,306b external financing on cards in next 2 FYs
The Bangladesh government plans to secure Taka 1,200.3 billion and Taka 1,306.4 billion in external financing for the fiscal years 2024-25 and 2025-26, respectively, to address projected deficits of Taka 2,792.3 billion and Taka 3,170.7 billion. The strategy includes enhancing the domestic debt market with more marketable securities and Islamic Sukuks, while shelving Eurobond issuances. The banking sector will significantly contribute to domestic borrowing, complemented by savings certificates and other sources. The government aims to keep the fiscal deficit around 5% of GDP and maintain a stable debt level at 33% of GDP, balancing deficit financing with sustainable economic development. Read more: The Business Post
Top terrors still control Dhaka crime world from abroad
Dhaka’s crime world continues to be influenced by notorious top terrors, with many operating from abroad. Despite some being killed or arrested, others have fled overseas, maintaining control and orchestrating criminal activities in Dhaka. Extortion remains a major focus, targeting various businesses and individuals, with criminals using threats and violence to enforce their demands. Efforts are being made by law enforcement to address this issue, with plans to extradite criminals abroad. The situation underscores the ongoing challenges posed by organized crime in the city. Read more: Prothom Alo
Train accidents on the rise, negligence in rail line maintenance blamed
Train accidents in Bangladesh are on the rise, with 63% attributed to poor maintenance of deteriorating rail lines and bridges. Despite new development projects, Bangladesh Railway faces challenges due to outdated infrastructure, signaling errors, and systemic mismanagement. Efforts are underway to modernize the signaling system and recruit skilled staff, but nearly 2,500 kilometers of tracks remain risky. Over the past five years, more than 2,000 accidents have resulted in over 150 deaths and 500 injuries, highlighting the urgent need for better maintenance and safety measures. Read more: Bangladesh Post
Sustainable Solutions: The Energy Landscape of Bangladesh
Written By De/Cypher Team
Bangladesh faces a significant challenge in its energy evolution, balancing the task of meeting rising energy demands with the need to address climate change. Historically dependent on fossil fuels, particularly LNG imports, the country is now turning to renewable energy sources to ensure energy security.
According to recent reports, Bangladesh’s plan to boost economic growth through LNG imports has been hampered by global market volatility and weak fiscal conditions. Shafiqul Alam, Lead Analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), emphasizes the importance of energy efficiency measures, saying, “An insatiable appetite for gas could lock Bangladesh into a vicious cycle of spiraling prices and supply issues.” Efforts to improve energy efficiency have gained traction, with a particular emphasis on gas-powered captive power generation. Studies indicate that enhancing efficiency in this sector could save Bangladesh $460 million annually and reduce LNG imports by 50.18 billion cubic feet, representing a significant step towards energy independence. Beyond efficiency improvements, Bangladesh has made progress in renewable energy adoption. The country’s first wind power plant in Cox’s Bazar, with a capacity of 60MW, demonstrates the potential of renewable energy sources. This project, which covers only 7.5 acres of land, outperforms solar projects in terms of land use efficiency, demonstrating the viability of wind energy in Bangladesh’s coastal regions.
The government’s commitment to renewable energy targets is also clear in its plans to diversify the energy mix. Initiatives include seeking consultants for a 100-MW solar project in Patuakhali district and aiming to generate 15% of electricity from renewables by 2030, rising to 100% by 2050. Despite these positive developments, challenges persist. Infrastructure limitations, policy implementation gaps, and investment constraints impede Bangladesh’s energy transition. However, the country’s renewable energy potential, bolstered by favorable wind speeds along coastal belts and abundant solar resources, offers opportunities for long-term development. Aligning with global climate goals, increasing energy efficiency, and accelerating renewable energy deployment are critical to achieving energy security, economic growth, and environmental sustainability.
Asia Headlines Quick Recap 🌏
Iran president helicopter crash: ‘no sign of life’ detected at site, says head of Red Crescent
A helicopter carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian reportedly crashed in a mountainous area amid bad weather. The head of the Iranian Red Crescent stated there were “no signs of life” detected at the crash site. Rescuers have sighted the wreckage, which appeared to be completely burned, and efforts to reach the site are ongoing. There has been no official statement from the Iranian government yet. Read more: The Guardian
Lai pledges to retain status quo in Taiwan Strait, calls on Beijing to jointly maintain peace
In his inaugural address, Taiwanese President William Lai Ching-te pledged to maintain the status quo in the Taiwan Strait and urged Beijing to work together for peace. Lai emphasized Taiwan’s commitment to sovereignty, democracy, and freedom, while also calling for mutual respect between Taiwan and China. “We all know that a country has sovereignty. According to the constitution of the Republic of China, the sovereignty of the Republic of China belongs to the people as a whole,” Lai said. Read more: SCMP
Vietnam nominates its public security minister as new president
Vietnam has nominated Public Security Minister To Lam as the new president following the resignation of former President Vo Van Thuong amidst a sweeping anti-corruption campaign. Read more: AP News
Malaysia-China secret maritime deal
Intelligence Online has learned that an unwritten agreement governs interactions between Chinese and Malaysian vessels in the South China Sea. Malaysian coast guards tolerate the presence of Chinese ships during their three-week rotation around the James Shoal and Luconia Shoals reefs. Read more: IO
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