De/Cypher Data Dive 📊
Af-Pak De/Cypher
19 Feb, 2024
How an Afghan Drug Kingpin Became Beijing’s Man in Kabul?
Published in Foreign Policy; written by Lynne O’Donnell
Summarized by De/Cypher Team
Haji Bashir Noorzai, a drug kingpin known for funding the Taliban through his heroin empire, has now established business partnerships with China. The Taliban’s control over Afghanistan has allowed them to exploit cash and aid intended for humanitarian purposes. China, despite its own human rights concerns, has maintained a long-standing relationship with the Taliban and has benefited from contracts with Chinese mining companies, bringing in significant amounts of money.
China’s interest in Afghanistan goes beyond access to strategic minerals. The country sees Afghanistan as integral to its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a global infrastructure program aimed at connecting Chinese manufactured products to European markets via Central Asia. As part of this initiative, China plans to build roads and railways through Afghanistan.
China has also been providing surveillance technology and equipment to the Taliban. This serves a dual purpose: the Taliban can more effectively track down their enemies, while Chinese security agencies can identify Uyghurs who have sought refuge with the Taliban as members of the anti-China East Turkestan Islamic Movement. It is worth noting that China has detained approximately one million Muslim Uyghurs in detention camps.
Noorzai’s involvement in mining and oil contracts in Afghanistan is attributed to his close relationship with top Taliban leaders, including the acting foreign minister. However, it is suggested that corruption and lack of transparency in the bidding process have played a significant role in Noorzai’s success. The article raises concerns about the potential for further corruption and a “chain reaction of corruption” as shares in Noorzai’s company may be sold to Chinese partners and subsequently to small-scale Chinese companies.
China’s recognition of the Taliban’s legitimacy is evident in its acceptance of the credentials of the Taliban representative as the ambassador for Afghanistan. This move sets China apart from the rest of the world, which has been hesitant to acknowledge the Taliban’s legitimacy due to their history of human rights violations and ties to banned terrorist organizations.
Iran and the perils of intervention
Published in International Institute for Iranian Studies /Arab News
Analyzed by De/Cypher Team
Iran is facing multiple challenges in 2024. The country is experiencing a legitimacy crisis, with widespread corruption scandals involving senior officials eroding public trust in the government. The rise of the “Woman, Life, Freedom“ movement has also brought issues of women’s rights and political freedoms to the forefront, further fueling demands for change.
Economically, Iran is struggling with the effects of international sanctions, high inflation, and stagnant growth. The government’s proposed budget, which relies heavily on tax revenue, raises concerns about increased economic burden on the population, particularly the middle and lower economic classes. The lack of progress in nuclear negotiations with the West has further contributed to the economic stagnation and poverty in the country.
Iran is facing several economic challenges. These challenges include:
- International Sanctions: Iran has been subjected to international sanctions that have severely restricted its trade and foreign investment prospects. These sanctions have negatively impacted the country’s economy and further isolated it from the global financial system.
- High Inflation: Iran is grappling with high inflation rates, which erode the purchasing power of the currency and negatively affect businesses and individuals. The exact inflation data has been kept under wraps, adding to the economic uncertainty.
- Stagnant Growth: The Iranian economy has been experiencing stagnant growth, with limited signs of actual development. The government’s claims of economic growth reaching 4 percent have been questioned due to the lack of independent verification.
- Budget Deficit: Iran is facing a significant budget deficit estimated to be around $10 billion. This deficit adds to the economic challenges and highlights the need for effective fiscal management.
- Poverty and Declining Living Standards: More than half of Iran’s population is reported to be living below the absolute poverty line. This alarming state of affairs indicates the struggle faced by millions of Iranians in their daily lives and highlights the need for improved economic conditions.
The economic turmoil in Iran, exacerbated by international factors like sanctions and geopolitical maneuvering, requires urgent attention and effective economic policies for stability and growth. The parliamentary elections in March 2024 will occur amid conservative faction power struggles, with past exclusion of moderate candidates fostering voter apathy and deepening regime-citizen divides. The Guardian Council’s candidate vetting and conservative faction dynamics will heavily influence the political landscape.
- Exclusion of Candidates: In previous elections, there have been instances of the Guardian Council, a group chosen by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, excluding candidates with moderate and reformist views. This exclusion has been perceived as limiting the choices available to the public and exacerbating the sense of disillusionment among the population.
- Voter Apathy: The exclusion of certain candidates and disillusionment with the political system have led to voter apathy. The low turnouts in recent election cycles serve as indicators of the widening gap between the regime and its citizens. The upcoming parliamentary elections may see even more pronounced voter apathy, potentially resulting in the lowest turnout since the founding of the Islamic Republic.
- Legitimacy Crisis: The legitimacy of the regime is under scrutiny due to a combination of factors, including corruption scandals, political violence, and perceived bad governance. The exclusion of candidates and the sense of disillusionment among the public have further contributed to the legitimacy crisis.
- Power Struggles: There are intense power struggles within conservative factions in Iran. These power struggles not only impact the composition of the parliament but also have implications for the upcoming presidential election in 2025. The rivalries between factions and the jostling for power within the Majlis (parliament) can lead to intrafactional strife and further political instability.
- Influence of the Guardian Council: The Guardian Council plays a significant role in the electoral process by vetting candidates. Its track record of barring moderate and reformist candidates has shaped the country’s political landscape. The council’s influence in filtering out candidates deemed unsuitable for the regime’s objectives raises questions about the fairness and representativeness of the elections.
These challenges in Iran’s political landscape, including candidate exclusion, voter apathy, power struggles, and the Guardian Council’s role, complicate elections. The Assembly of Experts, appointed by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, also plays a key role in Iran’s future. The upcoming assembly election will reflect current politics and may impact the selection of the next supreme leader, amid economic turmoil and legitimacy crises, putting Iran at a crossroads.
Read full report here.
Pakistan official admits involvement in rigging election results
The 2024 Pakistan general elections have been marred by allegations of election rigging, casting doubt on the country’s democratic processes. The admission of manipulation during the polls by Rawalpindi Commissioner Liaquat Ali Chatha shocked the nation, implicating himself, the head of the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP), and a top judge. This confession raised serious concerns about the integrity of the electoral process, highlighting long-standing issues with Pakistan’s electoral system.
The controversy erupted with the nationwide shutdown of social media platform X, which sparked protests by political parties, including Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), against the alleged rigging. Digital rights activists and cybersecurity experts condemned the shutdown as a violation of civil liberties, exacerbating disinformation and chaos rather than addressing the root causes.
Meanwhile, Syed Khurram Ali, Rawalpindi’s Regional Police Officer (RPO), left for a pre-approved trip to the United Kingdom amid rigging allegations, fueling speculation. Authorities clarified that his leave was unrelated to the allegations, but suspicions remained, adding to the chaotic aftermath of the elections.
What Next?
In the midst of this turmoil, the formation of Pakistan’s next government is uncertain. Negotiations between key political parties, including the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), are currently underway. While the PML-N emerged as the largest party, winning more than 90 seats, the PPP wields significant power with 54 seats. Despite indications of support from PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto, the party has declined to join the government, citing concerns about the election process.
However, the PPP is preparing to form a government in Balochistan, with senior party leader Sarfraz Bugti announcing plans to work with the PML-N in the province. The PPP’s victory in 11 provincial assembly seats places them as the frontrunner in Balochistan’s government formation, though specific details about the timeline and chief minister candidate are still unknown.
Despite widespread protests against alleged rigging in Balochistan, the PPP remains determined to form a government, emphasizing their acceptance of election results in the national interest. As negotiations between the PML-N and the PPP continue, stakeholders await a breakthrough that could pave the way for a stable government. With pressing economic and social challenges facing the country, forming a coalition government is critical for meeting Pakistan’s needs and fostering political stability.
Pakistan Can’t Stop the Cycle of Discontent
Published in Foreign Policy; written by Husain Haqqani
Summarized by De/Cypher Team
In Pakistan, the recent general elections have highlighted widespread dissatisfaction with the political and military establishment. Despite the victory of independent candidates affiliated with Imran Khan’s PTI party, which is now barred from running under its banner, a majority is still elusive, necessitating coalition building. The next government is likely to be a coalition of legacy parties such as the PML-N and the PPP. This result maintains the status quo in Pakistan’s political landscape, in which parties compete for both popular and military support, though the PTI’s performance has harmed the military’s image without diminishing its influence.
This political upheaval comes against the backdrop of an economic crisis and security threats from groups such as the TTP. Political polarization makes it difficult to address Pakistan’s economic challenges, which include a significant external debt and deficit. Furthermore, the country must deal with the presence of jihadi groups, which were previously supported as proxies but are now sources of internal terrorism. Populist narratives shift responsibility to external entities, complicating efforts to combat extremism.
Given the acrimonious results of the election and suspicions of manipulation, a national unity government is urgently needed. Such a government may ease the military’s exit from politics and promote meaningful policy debates. However, the developing coalition would certainly face criticism from Khan’s loyalists, exacerbating Pakistan’s tensions. Khan’s refusal to engage in talks with major parties emphasizes his preference for a populist, anti-establishment narrative over consensus-building. Despite voters’ dissatisfaction with traditional politics and military intervention, the route to peace remains elusive amid entrenched power dynamics and populist enthusiasm. Read more: Foreign Policy
News stories from Pakistan
IHC summons PM Kakar on Feb 19 in missing Baloch students case
The Islamabad High Court summoned caretaker Prime Minister Anwaarul Haq Kakar on February 19 regarding the failure to recover missing Baloch students, amidst concerns over enforced disappearances. Read more: Dawn
Nine terrorists killed in K-P in two separate operations
Security forces in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa conducted two separate operations on Friday and Saturday, killing nine terrorists, including a ‘High-Value Target’ in Tank District and seven others in South Waziristan. Read more: The Express Tribune
CJCSC discusses bilateral ties with Turkish Army’s deputy chief
Turkish Armed Forces Deputy Chief of General Staff, General Irfan Ozsert, discussed bilateral military engagements and cooperation with Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (CJCSC) General Sahir Shamshad Mirza in Rawalpindi. Read more: ARY News
Pakistan’s earns $1,454m from IT services’ export in 6 months
Pakistan earned $1,454.881 million from IT services exports in the first six months of the fiscal year 2023-24, marking an 8.98% increase compared to the same period last year. Read more: The Nation
Bangladesh De/Cypher
19 Feb, 2024
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina at the Munich Security Conference
Bangladesh actively participated in the 2024 Munich Security Conference (MSC), demonstrating the country’s growing significance on the global security stage. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s attendance at the conference was her first foreign trip since securing a fourth term in office, indicating Bangladesh’s commitment to being involved in international security discussions.
Prime Minister Hasina held discussions and negotiations with several countries, fostering diplomatic relations and promoting cooperation on a variety of fronts. Deals and agreements were made with key partners such as Germany, Ukraine, the Netherlands, Azerbaijan, Qatar, and Denmark. During a meeting with Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, they discussed reducing dependency on other currencies like the US dollar and reiterated Bangladesh’s commitment to supporting regional stability.
A meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, led to discussions on ways to strengthen bilateral ties and expand cooperation in areas like trade, investment, and technology exchange. Similarly, discussions with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy centered on regional security concerns and Indo-Pacific stability strategies.
One of the key outcomes of Bangladesh’s participation in the MSC was the emphasis on climate financing and adaptation measures. Prime Minister Hasina urged world leaders to divert resources from the senseless arms race towards combating climate change, stressing the importance of fulfilling commitments to provide USD 100 billion annually for climate financing until 2025 and agreeing on new financing targets post-2025.
Bangladesh’s participation in the Munich Security Conference in 2024 confirmed the country’s growing importance on the global security stage. Bangladesh’s strategic position in the Indo-Pacific region, as well as its economic expansion, provide opportunities for collaboration and alliance-building in addressing common security challenges.
Top Bangladesh Stories
PM Hasina urges world leaders to stop genocide in Gaza
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, speaking at the Munich Security Conference, urged global leaders to intervene and halt what she described as genocide in Gaza. Read more: Prothom Alo
Dhaka, Paris likely to sign 1b euro climate pact
Bangladesh and France are anticipated to finalize a Climate Adaptation Pact valued at 1 billion euros ($1.1 billion) during Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s forthcoming visit to France later this year. Read more: The Daily Star
UN very concerned over issues related to Dr Yunus
The UN expressed concern over recent events involving Nobel laureate Professor Muhammad Yunus, emphasizing his significant contributions to UN initiatives over the years. Read more: The Daily Ittefaq
330 Myanmar servicemen sheltered in Bangladesh sent back
Amid ongoing conflict in Myanmar, 330 Myanmar nationals, including Border Guard Police (BGP) members, army personnel, immigration personnel, and civilians, who had sought refuge in Bangladesh, were returned to their country on Thursday (15th Feb) morning. Read more: Daily Bonik Barta
Recurrence of malware attacks increases by 71.39pc: BGD e-GOV CIRT
The Bangladesh Government’s e-Government Computer Incident Response Team (BGD e-GOV CIRT) has reported a significant increase of 71.39% in the recurrence of malware attacks in the country, particularly associated with ransomware threats. Read more: Prothom Alo
45 percent women malnourished
A recent study revealed that approximately 45.18 percent of women in Bangladesh are malnourished, with the majority being either overweight or underweight. Read more: The Daily Star
Asia Headlines🌏: Quick Recap
Thai tycoon Thaksin tastes freedom in homeland, 15 years after fleeing
Thaksin Shinawatra, former Thai PM, was released on parole after six months, marking his return to Thailand after 15 years. Controversy surrounded his release due to perceived VIP treatment and concerns over his potential influence on politics. (Reuters)
Tensions between doctors, government reach crescendo in South Korea
Trainee doctors in South Korea planned mass resignations over government’s plan to increase medical student quota, sparking tensions. Government threatened tough measures, while medical associations and students joined protests. (Korea Times)
China to send coast guard ships as tensions rise over Taiwanese islands
China’s coast guard announced plans to increase law enforcement activities around Taiwanese-controlled islands following tensions over the deaths of two Chinese nationals. Taiwan defended actions of its coast guard, prompting condemnation from China. (Reuters)
Ukrainian foreign minister discusses peace prospects with Chinese counterpart
Ukrainian Foreign Minister discussed peace prospects with Chinese counterpart Wang Yi, aiming to bolster relations and garner support for Kyiv’s 10-point peace plan. Talks included bilateral relations, trade, and plans for a global peace summit hosted by Switzerland. (Arab News)
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