Decypher Data Dive 📊
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) has developed a unique pricing system to measure the volume of deliveries of major conventional weapons and components using a common unit— the SIPRI trend-indicator value (TIV). The TIV of an item being delivered is intended to reflect its military capability rather than its financial value. This common unit can be used to measure trends in the flow of arms between particular countries and regions over time.
Asia Headlines: Quick Recap
Chinese turn US embassy post into ‘Wailing Wall’ for stock plunge
Many Chinese are venting their frustration at the slowing economy and the weak stock market in an unconventional place: the social media account of the U.S. Embassy in Beijing. A post on Friday on protecting wild giraffes by the U.S. embassy on Weibo, a Chinese platform similar to X, has attracted 130,000 comments and 15,000 reposts as of Sunday, many of them unrelated to wildlife conservation. “Could you spare us some missiles to bomb away the Shanghai Stock Exchange?” one user wrote in an repost of the article. (The Standard)
U.S. State Department approves $4bn sale of armed drones to India
U.S. State Department approved the potential sale of 31 armed MQ-9B SkyGuardian drones, along with missiles and equipment, to India for nearly $4 billion. The move marks progress in bilateral discussions that began in 2018, aiming to overcome bureaucratic hurdles. (Nikkei)
Japan’s Murata, Keyence face falling profits on China slowdown
Twenty one Japanese firms with heavy exposure to China, net profit fell compared to an year earlier. The exposure to Chinese firms in Japan where due to a weak Yen and price hikes companies reporting higher profits were clouded due to the slowing Chinese economy. The China conundrum could have a long shadow in the Asian economy. (Nikkei)
China’s Lunar New Year pork gloom exposes deep economic trouble
Bloomberg has put out a story that showcases the weakening and subdued demand for Pork around the lunar new year in China on 10th February 2024. “Pork consumption apparently clearly hasn’t kept up with supply since China reopened last year, despite a surge in people eating out again,” said Duncan Wrigley, chief China economist at consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics. While good data is scarce, he added, farmers have ramped up production in response to swine fever losses and large-scale operations have taken up a greater share of the market. The subdued volume of sales mean that the depression in Chinese economy is not responding to the CCP’s shock therapy, what would happen next? (Bloomberg)
Turkey central bank governor quits and points to campaign against her
Turkey’s push for standard economic policies that made it an investor favourite will be hard to sustain as central bank governor Hafize Gaye Erkan quit on Friday.While the resignation was not a shock — pressure has been building on her for weeks amid local media reports on nepotism at the bank — the lira weakened on the news. It dropped as much as 0.8% versus the dollar before paring losses, and was on track to the weakest level on record. (Financial Times)
Af-Pak De/Cypher
5 Feb, 2024
Top 10 Stories from Pakistan
At least 10 police personnel killed in attack on police station in DI Khan
Terrorists launched a deadly attack on a police station in Tehsil Daraban, Dera Ismail Khan, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, at 3 am on January 5, 2024. Tragically, 10 police officers were killed, and six others sustained injuries during the assault. The attackers, using heavy weapons and grenades, targeted the station from all sides. Despite a retaliatory response from the police, the terrorists managed to escape under the cover of darkness. A search operation is underway, with the area cordoned off, and additional forces deployed. Read more: Business Recorder
Record voter registration as over half of Pakistani population to shape country’s future
Pakistan sees a historic surge in voter registration, with 128 million citizens eligible to vote in the upcoming general elections on February 8. This record number constitutes 53.2% of the total population, marking Pakistan as the fifth-largest democracy globally. Read more: The News International
Pakistani forces neutralize 24 militants in restive southwest ahead of next week’s elections
Security forces in Balochistan, Pakistan, have eliminated 24 militants involved in coordinated attacks in Mach and Kolpur cities over the last three days. The Baloch Liberation Army claimed responsibility, linking the assaults to Pakistan’s missile strikes in Iran. Read more: Arab News
US strongly condemns attack on PTI rally in Sibi, says it ‘undermines electoral process’
The United States strongly condemned the attack on the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) election rally in Sibi, stating that it “undermines the electoral process.” The State Department emphasized the Pakistani people’s right to choose their leader without fear for the country’s stability and prosperity. Read more: Business Recorder
China, Pakistan sign agreement to route Internet traffic through Pakistan, generate $400 million revenue
In a ground-breaking agreement, Pakistan and China have signed a deal to route internet traffic through Pakistan, solidifying the country’s role as a regional digital connectivity hub. Read more: CPEC
China, Pakistan discuss situation in Afghanistan, regional collaboration
China’s top diplomat on Afghanistan, Ambassador Yue Xiaonyou, discussed regional collaboration and the Afghan situation with Pakistan’s Foreign Secretary Syrus Qazi. This follows China’s official acceptance of credentials for the Taliban-appointed ambassador to China, raising questions about China’s stance on the Taliban regime. Read more: Pakistan Today
Imran, Bushra get seven-year jail sentence for unlawful marriage
The legal troubles of former Prime Minister Imran Khan and his wife Bushra Bibi intensified as they were sentenced to seven years in jail for an unlawful marriage case. This comes on the heels of earlier convictions in cipher and Toshakhana cases. Read more: The News International
ECP finalises preparations for February 8 general elections
The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) has completed preparations for the upcoming general elections scheduled for February 8. With 120 million registered voters, 90,675 polling stations have been established across the four provinces, including combined and gender-specific stations. Read more: Minute Mirror
Pakistan elections garner no significant attention in US
The February 8 elections in Pakistan have not gained significant attention in Washington, where discussions primarily focus on the Gaza conflict, the upcoming US presidential election, and the ongoing situation in Ukraine. While daily news briefings at the US State Department touch on the Pakistani election, it is not a central topic. Concerns are raised about the US prioritizing short-term interests and the need for transparent and fair elections. Read more: Dawn
Trade deficit shrinks to $13.1b
Pakistan’s trade deficit shrank to $13.1 billion, reducing pressure on foreign exchange reserves. The $6.4 billion cut in the deficit now equals 78% of existing reserves, crucial for managing debt and the current account deficit. Pakistan remains reliant on $25-30 billion annually for the next three years. Read more: The Express Tribune
Pakistan must ensure free and fair elections to avert a meltdown – Dr. Farzana Shaikh for The Chatham House
Farzana Shaikh of Chatham House has written an interesting commentary on the Pakistan elections scheduled for 8th February 2024. There are allegations of interference in the electoral process by the military establishment, which is reportedly working with the judiciary to keep former prime minister Imran Khan out of the elections. Imran Khan was ousted as prime minister in 2022 and is currently in prison.
There are also concerns about the lack of a level playing field and allegations of pre-poll rigging, which could undermine the fairness of the elections. The media is said to be sanctioned for giving coverage to Khan and pressured to offer privileged airtime to former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, who is seen as the military’s favorite.
Sharif, however, has struggled to galvanize support, and his party is blamed for the country’s economic challenges, including high inflation and public debt. Many fear that the return of Sharif’s party can only be secured through high levels of election engineering.
Furthermore, there are risks of low voter turnout, which could raise questions about the legitimacy of the new government. Deteriorating security conditions also pose a risk to the elections, with instances of violence reported. The knowledge base suggests that without a credible result in the upcoming elections, Pakistan may face formidable economic and political challenges. The repercussions could extend beyond the country’s borders, affecting regional stability and increasing pressure on Western governments.
Her arguments are enumerated below.
There are several arguments and concerns surrounding the upcoming elections in Pakistan:
- Lack of a level playing field: There are allegations of interference in the electoral process by the powerful military establishment. It is reported that the military is working with the judiciary to keep former prime minister Imran Khan out of the elections. This raises concerns about the fairness of the electoral process.
- Pre-poll rigging: There are allegations of pre-poll rigging, which refers to denying candidates known to be out of favor with the military room to campaign freely. This undermines the integrity of the elections and raises questions about the representative credentials of the new government.
- Media censorship: The media is said to be sanctioned for giving coverage to Imran Khan and pressured to offer privileged airtime to former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, who is seen as the military’s favorite. This raises concerns about freedom of the press and the ability of the media to provide unbiased coverage of the elections.
- Low voter turnout: There are risks of low voter turnout, which could indicate a lack of confidence in the election results. Pakistan has a history of low turnouts, and anything below 44 percent would suggest a lack of confidence in the electoral process.
- Security risks: Deteriorating security conditions pose a risk to the elections. Instances of violence, such as the shooting of an independent candidate and the killing of four people at a PTI election rally, have been reported. This raises concerns about the safety and security of voters and candidates during the electoral process.
- Economic and political challenges: Pakistan faces formidable economic and political challenges, and a credible result in the elections is seen as crucial for overcoming these challenges. Without a fair and free election, it may be difficult for Pakistan to address its economic and political crises.
The blasphemy law in Pakistan criminalizes derogatory remarks against religious groups or religious feelings. It is primarily based on three sections of the Pakistan Penal Code:
- Section 295-A: This section criminalizes the use of derogatory remarks, spoken or written, that are intended to outrage religious feelings or insult religious beliefs. It specifically targets remarks against any religion or religious belief.
- Section 295-B: This section deals with the desecration or defiling of the Qur’an. It criminalizes acts that involve damaging or desecrating the Qur’an, which is considered a holy book in Islam.
- Section 295-C: This section focuses on insulting the Prophet Muhammad. It criminalizes any spoken or written words, representations, or imputations that directly or indirectly defile the name of the Prophet Muhammad.
The penalties for violating these sections can range from imprisonment to even death. The punishments can vary depending on the severity of the offence and may include fines, imprisonment for a specific period, or, in extreme cases, the death penalty.
It is important to note that the blasphemy law has been a subject of controversy and criticism due to its potential for misuse, leading to false accusations, mob violence, and human rights abuses. The knowledge base highlights concerns about the misuse of the law and calls for reforms to protect religious freedom and prevent its misuse.
The report provides detailed information about the blasphemy law in Pakistan and its impact on religious freedom and human rights. The law, which originated from British colonial rule, has been strengthened over the years and has become one of the strictest and most frequently enforced blasphemy laws in the world.
One of the main concerns raised by human rights groups is the misuse of the blasphemy law to target religious minorities, particularly Christians and Ahmadiyya Muslims. False accusations of blasphemy are not uncommon, often driven by personal feuds or political motives. This has led to instances of violence, mob attacks, and even killings of individuals accused of blasphemy.
The report highlights the case of Asia Bibi, a Christian woman who spent eight years on death row after being falsely accused of blasphemy. Her acquittal in 2018 resulted in riots and calls for her execution, demonstrating the deep-rooted tensions surrounding blasphemy allegations.
Discrimination against the Ahmadiyya Muslim community is another significant issue discussed in the report. Ahmadis face strict restrictions on practising their faith, including prohibitions on publicly declaring their faith, building mosques, and even using Islamic practices in worship. They are required to sign statements renouncing their faith to obtain official documents.
The report also mentions the censorship of organizations and websites deemed to have blasphemous content. In some cases, the government has blocked entire platforms, such as Wikipedia. This raises concerns about freedom of expression and the government’s control over information.
Despite international calls for reform and concerns about the impact of the blasphemy law on religious freedom, the Pakistani government has taken steps to strengthen the legislation. This has further raised concerns about the misuse of the law and the lack of safeguards to protect individuals from false accusations and mob violence.
Overall, the report presents a grim picture of the blasphemy law in Pakistan, highlighting its detrimental effects on religious minorities, freedom of expression, and human rights. The information provided raises important arguments for the need to address these issues and ensure the protection of religious freedom for all individuals in the country.
Read more:
Bangladesh De/Cypher
5 Feb, 2024
Top 10 Stories from Bangladesh
Number of troops fleeing Myanmar conflicts to Bangladesh rises to 95
At least 58 Myanmar troops have fled to Bangladesh, seeking shelter amid conflicts in the Rakhine State. The Bangladeshi government has sought Chinese assistance for de-escalation. The troops, including Myanmar army and Border Guard Police, crossed the border with arms. Bangladesh aims to repatriate them and emphasized a desire to avoid war. Read more: New Age
Biden writes to Hasina, expresses willingness to work together
US President, Joe Biden expressed commitment to collaborating with Bangladesh in a letter to Prime Minister Hasina. The US President emphasized supporting Bangladesh’s economic goals and shares a vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific. The letter underscored joint efforts on security, economic development, climate change, global health, and humanitarian aid, especially for Rohingya refugees. This comes after the US Government stated that they believed the National Elections in Bangladesh were neither free or fair. Read more: Rising BD
Charge-sheet filed against Dr Yunus, 13 others in graft case
The Anti-Corruption Commission (ACC) filed a charge-sheet against Dr. Muhammad Yunus and 13 others, including Grameen Telecom officials, for embezzling Tk25 crore from a fund reserved for workers. The case is scheduled to be heard on March 3. Read more: Dhaka Tribune
China invites Bangladesh PM Hasina for official visit to Beijing
China invites Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina for an official visit to Beijing, expressing readiness to deepen cooperation. The invitation comes as China aims to collaborate with Bangladesh’s new government, fostering mutually beneficial and friendly ties. Read more: The Business Standard
First Regional Session of Executive Board of UNDP, UNFPA, UNOPS 2024 concludes
The first Regional Session of UNDP, UNFPA, UNOPS for 2024 concluded in New York, emphasizing commitment to support vulnerable populations amid crises. Ambassador Muhith, the first Bangladeshi to preside over this Board, pledged support for the agencies through technical guidance. Read more: Daily Sun
FM meets Belgian, Czech, Swedish, Vietnamese counterparts
Bangladesh’s Foreign Minister, Hasan Mahmud, engaged in bilateral meetings with counterparts from Belgium, the Czech Republic, Sweden, and Vietnam during the 3rd Indo-Pacific Ministerial Forum in Brussels. Read more: Somoy News
Bangladesh, US to work together on climate change
Bangladesh and the United States are set to collaborate on combating climate change and protecting the environment. Environment Minister Saber Hossain Chowdhury and US Ambassador Peter Haas discussed the importance of scaling up initiatives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance Bangladesh’s capacity to adapt to climate change impacts. Read more: Daily Bonik Barta
Female participation declines despite record high labour migration in 2023
The Refugee and Migratory Movements Research Unit reported a 27.45% decline in female migration from Bangladesh in 2023, despite an overall 13% increase in migration, reaching a record 13,05,453 people. In 2023, Bangladesh earned $21.91 billion in remittances, reflecting a 2.88% increase. Read more: New Age
41pc youth are neither working nor studying
Around 41% of Bangladeshi youth aged 15-24 are inactive, per the BBS Sample Vital Statistics Report. Girls face a higher rate at 61.71%, with factors including early marriage and lack of job skills. Despite UN SDGs aiming to reduce youth unemployment, Bangladesh’s targets haven’t been met, and disengaged youth show concerning trends. The number of inactive youth is about 12.9 million, with varying data due to definitional differences. Read more: Prothom Alo
Pressure of foreign debt payment mounts amid dollar crisis
Bangladesh faces increasing pressure on foreign debt payments due to the ongoing dollar crisis, with instalments for loans from Russia, China, and other partners beginning. The repayment amount has doubled over the past decade, and short durations of loan payments for major projects like Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant add strain to the situation. Read more: Prothom Alo
‘India Out’ campaign heats up in Bangladesh after lopsided election
Following a contentious election in Bangladesh, the ‘India Out’ campaign has gained traction, claiming Indian interference in local politics. Following Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s victory and the opposition boycott, social media campaigns, such as #IndiaOut, have called for a boycott of Indian products. Pinaki Bhattacharya, an exiled figure, leads the movement and calls for unity. The campaign, which affects the $14 billion annual trade between India and Bangladesh, is motivated by resentment of perceived Indian support for the ruling Awami League. The movement has resonated with opposition parties, with some calling for a boycott of Indian products to protest alleged Indian interference. Read more: Nikkei Asia
Corruption Perceptions Index 2023: Bangladesh performs the lowest in the last fifteen years.
Bangladesh slipped two ranks in the Corruption Perception Index 2023, ranking 149th out of 180 countries, the second-lowest among South Asian nations. In South Asia, Pakistan (29) and Sri Lanka (34) face challenges of debt burdens and political instability. Both countries, however, benefit from strong judicial oversight, with the Supreme Court of Pakistan expanding citizens’ right to information. In Sri Lanka, the Supreme Court holds former officials responsible for the 2021 economic crisis. India (39) experienced minor score fluctuations. Bangladesh (24), while emerging from least developed country status, encounters obstacles in accessing public sector information due to a press crackdown amid economic growth. Read more: Transparency International
Thank you for Reading!!!
