“Pakistan Soars into Space, Sundarbans Ablaze, and Afghan Diplomat Steps Down”

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De/Cypher Data Dive 📈

Aramco has acquired a 40% equity stake in Pakistan’s Oil & Gas Company. The development is expected to “boost competition, elevate service standards, and provide consumers with a broader range of high-quality products,” reports the Competition Commission of Pakistan.

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Vital Statistics: Asian Development Outlook released by ADB in 2024

The Asian Development Outlook (ADO) April 2024 provides a comprehensive analysis of economic trends and prospects across various regions in Asia. Here are the key insights from the report:

Economic Growth

• Overall Growth: Developing Asia is expected to maintain robust growth, with a projected rate of 4.9% for both 2024 and 2025. This growth is supported by strong domestic demand and a recovery in goods exports, particularly due to an upturn in the semiconductor cycle.
• Regional Variations:
  • East Asia: Growth is rebounding, particularly in China, due to the removal of pandemic-related restrictions.
  • South Asia: Despite economic contractions in Pakistan and Sri Lanka, the region’s growth is supported by strong performance in India.
  • Southeast Asia: Growth has slowed due to weaker external demand.
  • The Pacific: Growth has declined significantly due to a downturn in Papua New Guinea’s resource sector.

Inflation

• Inflation across developing Asia is expected to moderate, with a forecast of 3.2% in 2024 and 3.0% in 2025. This is attributed to the end of interest rate hiking cycles and easing inflationary pressures from supply-side constraints.

Risks and Challenges

• Geopolitical Tensions: Escalating conflicts could disrupt supply chains and reignite inflationary pressures.
• Public Debt: While public debt has stabilized in many economies, it remains higher than pre-pandemic levels, posing a challenge to fiscal sustainability.
• Property Market: Stress in China’s property market could dampen regional growth prospects.

Special Topics

• Semiconductor Industry: The report highlights the rebound in Asia’s semiconductor sector, driven by the surge in artificial intelligence (AI) applications. This rebound is particularly significant for economies like South Korea and Taiwan, which are major players in the semiconductor industry.

Policy Recommendations

• Policymakers are advised to strengthen trade and investment cooperation, enhance social safety nets, and focus on sustainable economic practices, including green investments and reducing reliance on fossil fuels.

Economic Outlook by Country

• Detailed forecasts are provided for various countries, including growth projections and economic health indicators. For instance, India is noted for its strong investment-driven growth, while Southeast Asian countries like Indonesia and Malaysia are expected to see stable growth rates.

Overall, the ADO April 2024 underscores a cautiously optimistic outlook for Asia, with strong growth potential tempered by external uncertainties and internal vulnerabilities.

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Asia View

Pakistan’s Lunar Mission: A Snap Shot of Its Space Ties with China

Written by Priyanka Garodia, Geopolitical Research Analyst, South Asia

Pakistan has launched its first lunar satellite with the help of China for the first time. A tiny module titled “icube-Q,” designed by the Institute of Space Technology with Shanghai University and the Pakistani space agency Suparco, will take pictures of the lunar surface. The icube-Q is part of China’s  Chang’e 6, a space programme named after the moon goddess that aims to document the ‘dark side’ of the moon for research purposes. This mission is exclusive and has never been undertaken by any other nation. 

Islamabad has emerged as one of China’s most important allies in South Asia. The ‘iron brotherhood’ forged between the two countries manifests itself in matters of diplomatic, economic, social, and geopolitical developments. China has invested heavily in Pakistan’s economy, which is in crisis presently. This includes the creation of the ‘China Pakistan Economic Corridor,” – the CPEC. It is an essential pawn in China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which seeks to create a new trading route connecting Asia and Europe. Development initiatives for communications, energy, transportation, and infrastructure are all part of the BRI. The two nations share a close strategic bond, with China playing a crucial role in developing Pakistan’s military capacities. Pakistan has played an important role in China’s Afghanistan policy that allows it access to West Asia – a new theatre for Chinese power play in terms of energy, technology, and mining. Overall, maintaining close ties with Islamabad is crucial to China’s global plan to emerge as a driver of development; the fact that Pakistan is India’s bitter adversary helps dearly. 

The strategic partnership between China and Pakistan has led to the sharing of technology and research. The Sino-Pakistani space partnership has been operational for a while now, with the launch of Badar-1, Pakistan’s first indigenous satellite, in 1990 from China. Beijing helped in the launch of Pakistan’s communication satellite – Paksat-1R successfully in 2011 as well. The two countries engage in multilateral space forums like the Asia-Pacific Space Cooperation Programme, created in 1992 between China, Pakistan, and Thailand. China possesses one of the world’s most rigorous space programs, and it has been transparent about using space to further its nationalist goals. Its close ties to Pakistan’s space development program align well with its nationalist objectives.

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Top Stories📜 this week 

Two-day Pakistan-Saudi Arabia investment conference begins in Islamabad today

The conference between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia is set to begin in Islamabad today, Monday, to promote trade and investment between the two countries, Pakistani state media reported. A 50-person Saudi delegation headed by Assistant Minister of Investment Ibrahim Al-Mubarak arrived in Pakistan the day before to look into potential investment opportunities. The two countries have lately been working to increase bilateral trade and investment, and the Kingdom recently reaffirmed its commitment to expedite an investment package worth $5 billion for Pakistan. Read more: Arab News

Aramco acquires 40% stake in GO, marking first entry into Pakistani fuel retail market

The Competition Commission of Pakistan this week approved Saudi oil giant Aramco’s decision to acquire a 40 percent stake in local company Gas & Oil Pakistan Ltd, officially marking the Saudi company’s entry into Pakistan’s fuel retail market. Pakistan and Saudi Arabia enjoy strong trade, defense, and cultural ties. The Kingdom is home to over 2.7 million Pakistani expatriates and serves as the top source of remittances to the cash-strapped South Asian country. Read more: Arab News

Sher Afzal Marwat replaced by Waqas Akram for Public Accounts Committee chief slot

The chairmanship of the National Assembly’s Public Accounts Committee (PAC) has become a bone of contention and triggered a tug of war between senior PTI figures after it emerged that its political committee had voted to replace maverick Sher Afzal Khan Marwat with Sheikh Waqas Akram. Read more: Dawn 

Punjab industries minister for boosting trade with South Korea

Punjab Industries Minister Shafay Hussain says Pakistan has trade cooperation with South Korea, but there is a need to increase bilateral economic cooperation. The Korea-Pakistan Business Forum 2024 was organised by the Korean Embassy in Pakistan. South Korean Ambassador Park Kajin and the business communities of Pakistan and Korea attended the forum. The minister stressed the importance of improving the environment and suggested that Korea consider setting up an electric vehicle manufacturing plant in Punjab. Read more: Dawn

Bilawal may return as foreign minister

Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) Chairman Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari is likely to return as the country’s foreign minister as the ruling Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N) and PPP were close to finalising a power-sharing deal, according to people familiar with the development.  Read more: Tribune Express

Jinnah House attack: Arrest warrants issued against nine suspects

An Anti-Terrorism Court (ATC) in Lahore on Friday issued non-bailable warrants against nine suspects, including a woman, in the Jinnah House attack case, ARY News reported.  ATC Judge Arshad Ahmed heard the case and expressed displeasure over the absence of nine accused. The ATC issued non-bailable warrants and directed the police to arrest and produce the suspects before it on May 15. Violent clashes broke out across Pakistan after the former prime minister and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf chief Imran Khan was arrested at the Islamabad High Court (IHC) on May 9. The protests were held in remote and major cities as the party workers were agitated due to their chairman’s arrest, with Balochistan, Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Islamabad summoning the armed forces to ensure law and order. Read more: ARY News

Improvised explosive kills three and wounds seven in Pakistan’s southwest Baluchistan province

A blast from an improvised explosive device killed three people and wounded seven on Friday in the Pakistani province of Baluchistan, a police officer said. The attack took place in Khuzdur, a second of its kind in the past month. Read more: Ground News

Pakistan: Bus crash in the north kills at least 20

A bus accident in northern Pakistan caused the deaths of at least 20 people, with 21 others injured and rescued, according to a local official. The bus was en route from Rawalpindi to Gilgit-Baltistan when it veered off the road, resulting in the tragic incident. The injured passengers were promptly evacuated and taken to hospitals for treatment after the bus plunged into a ravine due to the driver losing control. Read more: Ground News

IMF says its mission will visit Pakistan this month to discuss new loan

An International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission is expected to visit Pakistan this month to discuss a new programme, the lender said on Sunday ahead of Islamabad beginning its annual budget-making process for the next financial year. Pakistan last month completed a short-term $3 billion programme, which helped stave off sovereign default, but the government of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has stressed the need for a fresh, longer-term programme. Pakistan is expected to seek at least $6 billion and request additional financing from the Fund under the Resilience and Sustainability Trust. Talks are to be held this month. Read more: Express Tribune

Top Afghan diplomat in India quits after $2.7m gold smuggling reports

Afghanistan’s top diplomat Ms Wardak, resigned days after she was reportedly caught by the airport authorities smuggling nearly US$2 million (S$2.7 million) worth of gold into India. Afghanistan’s embassy in New Delhi shut down in November, more than two years after the Taliban returned to power in Kabul following the collapse of the Western-backed government, leaving Ms Wardak as the country’s most senior representative in India. According to reports in Indian media, Ms. Wardak and her son were stopped by financial intelligence officials at the Mumbai airport in April when they arrived from Dubai with 25 kg of gold. She was not arrested because of her diplomatic immunity, the reports said, but the gold – worth around US$1.9 million was confiscated. Ms Wardak’s resignation leaves thousands of Afghan nationals, including students and businessmen, without any consular representation in India. Read more: The Strait Times

Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Afghanistan discuss possible transport corridor to India & West Asia

Two Central Asian states, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan along with Afghanistan have agreed to enhance transit and transport infrastructure in Afghanistan at a trilateral meeting last week between Kazakh Deputy Prime Minister Serik Zhumangarin, Director General of the Transport and Communications Agency under Turkmenistan’s Cabinet of Ministers Mammetkhan Chakyev, and Afghan Minister of Commerce and Industry Nooruddin Azizi in Kabul. It would emerge as a key route for transporting goods from Russia and Belarus through Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to Afghanistan, India, and West Asia. Read more: TCA

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De/Cypher Lighthouse 🔦

Pakistan’s Blasphemy Laws and Minorities

Written by De/Cypher Team

The Condition: 

Minority rights in Pakistan are in an abysmal state. Although it is not new, the weaponization of laws in Pakistan to benefit the majority community has drawn harsh criticism from the international humanitarian community. The recent acquittal of Mubarak Ahmad Sani, a member of the Ahmadiya community, took the country by storm, with protests in Punjab and an arrest in Rawalpindi. The Ahmadiya community is a minority group in Pakistan that is not recognized as Islamic, despite their belief in being Muslim. The Ahmadiyas have been the victims of a sustained target of violence in the state and have been indiscriminately subject to the jurisdiction of the Blasphemy Laws enforced in the country. In 2017, anti-Ahmadiyya protests by the Tehreek-e-Labaik brought the country to a standstill. Christian and Shia Muslims alike have been subject unequally to the jurisdiction of the Blasphemy Laws. Pakistan is a Sunni-majority state.

The Legal Edifice:

The Pakistan Penal Code (PPC), like most postcolonial countries, finds its roots in imperial rule. Adopted from the Indian Penal Code of British rule, its Blasphemy Laws date back to 1860. The 1970’s and 1980’s saw multiple revisions to the existing Blasphemy laws under General Zia-Ul Haq. General Zia’s strategy was to use religion as a means of fortifying political consensus and appeasing the more conservative segments of society. The original clause consisted of four chapters, and an additional five were added under Haq. Although Pakistan has consistently argued that the anti-blasphemy laws protect minority groups by shielding them from mob justice, it is impossible to ignore how discriminatorily they are applied.

An advocacy group based in Pakistan, the Center for Social Justice, has revealed that between 1987 and 2016, blasphemy provisions were used to charge at least 1,472 individuals. Many others are serving life sentences for related offenses, and several blasphemy convicts are currently on death row. Despite this, there have been no executions. The laws clearly violate the right to freedom of expression and have been used to persecute minorities, especially the Ahmadiya community. 

The Humanitarian Challenge: 

Pakistan has a bloody history when it comes to the implementation of the Blasphemy Laws. In 1997, a local judge was shot dead for reversing an anti-blasphemy judgment; in 2011, a Christian federal minister and a provincial minister were killed while asking to revise the laws; in 2018, the infamous Aisa Bibi, a Christian woman, fled the country upon judicial release; and in 2021, a Sri Lankan national was lynched to death on accounts of blasphemy. These are a few high-profile examples of the violence Pakistani society sees in the name of blasphemy. 

In the Islamic world, Pakistan has the strictest laws of blasphemy, second only to Iran. It has some of the highest levels of religious violence and deaths. Despite their discriminatory nature and opposition to the spirit of the Pakistani constitution and international humanitarian rights law, these laws have been exempt from change. Developed and strengthened to serve authoritarian purposes, the blasphemy laws of Pakistan have emerged as a political tool and means of appeasement for the conservatives in society, catering to a majority Sunni populace. 

Conclusion: 

The Blasphemy Laws have been extremely controversial in Pakistan, especially given the government’s and the judiciary’s leaning towards limiting the rights of minorities and appeasing the often violent majority. The government closely monitors and controls the limited space for free speech in the country. Pakistan’s commitment to its minorities, and the politicization of the judicial edifice for electoral gain is under international scrutiny. 

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Top Stories📜 this week

OIC Summit: Foreign Minister holds meetings with counterparts from Malaysia, Brunei, Azerbaijan

Foreign Minister Dr. Hasan Mahmud met bilaterally with counterparts from Malaysia, Brunei, and Azerbaijan during the 15th OIC Summit in Banjul, Gambia. The discussions focused on strengthening bilateral relations, including employment opportunities for Bangladeshi workers in Malaysia, Rohingya repatriation, trade, investment, and specific issues such as cattle exports to Brunei and energy imports from Azerbaijan. Read more: The Business Standard

 

Bangladesh, Egypt agree to strengthen bilateral cooperation

Bangladesh and Egypt reaffirmed their commitment to strengthening bilateral cooperation by agreeing to hold regular foreign office consultations. Foreign Minister Hasan Mahmud and Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Hassan Shoukry met on the sidelines of the OIC Summit to discuss trade and investment, the Rohingya crisis, and a proposed mutual visa exemption. Egypt also pledged to support the construction of Bangladesh’s mission in Egypt. Read more: The Financial Express

 

80 Saudi companies keen to invest in Bangladesh

Salman F Rahman, Bangladesh’s Prime Minister’s Private Industry and Investment Adviser, announced that 80 Saudi companies are interested in investing in Bangladesh’s various sectors. During his visit to Saudi Arabia, Rahman discussed potential investment opportunities with Saudi ministers and officials, such as energy cooperation and the possibility of Saudi Arabia purchasing crude oil from Bangladesh on a deferred payment basis. Furthermore, a feasibility study for a urea fertilizer factory, a joint initiative between Bangladesh and Saudi Arabia, is underway, with technical discussions continuing. Read more: Bangladesh Post

 

UN agencies concerned over Bangladeshi workers stranded in Malaysia

Three international organizations, including the IOM, ILO, and UNODC, have expressed concern about Bangladeshi workers being duped into traveling to Malaysia for non-existent jobs. They are ready to help the Malaysian government review its labor migration system and provide immediate assistance to stranded workers while aiming for long-term solutions. According to reports, an increasing number of workers are arriving in Malaysia without jobs and living in deplorable conditions, prompting calls for action from UN experts and activists. Read more: The Business Post

UN adopts Bangladesh’s ‘Culture of Peace’ resolution

The UN General Assembly unanimously adopted Bangladesh’s ‘Culture of Peace’ resolution, which was co-sponsored by 112 member countries. The resolution, presented by Ambassador Muhammad Abdul Muhith, emphasizes the promotion of peace and nonviolence and calls for action in eight specific areas. Bangladesh has presented this resolution annually since 1999 and has hosted a high-level forum on the culture of peace since 2012. Read more: Somoy News

 

Bangladesh to loosen interest rate on IMF prescription

Bangladesh’s central bank plans to implement a flexible interest rate and exchange rate system in line with IMF recommendations. Governor Abdur Rouf Talukder announced plans for a completely market-based interest rate and the use of the “crawling peg” method for exchange rates. The move is intended to improve market dynamics and economic stability. Experts emphasized the importance of effective monetary and fiscal policies in addressing inflation and increasing government spending to ensure long-term growth. Former officials emphasized the importance of central bank autonomy in maintaining financial discipline. Read more: The Daily Star

 

Sundarbans in peril: Frequent forest fires fuel threats to biodiversity

A fire which started in the Amurbunia area of the Sundarbans’ East Zone was extinguished after 26 hours, thanks to the combined efforts of volunteers, forest guards, and various agencies such as the fire service, navy, coast guard, and air force. Precautions are being taken because reemergence is possible. All passes to the affected areas have been cancelled, and a three-member committee will investigate the cause. This blaze adds to the Sundarbans’ recurring threat of forest fires, which have caused significant damage in 32 incidents over the past 22 years. Despite recommendations for preventive measures, tangible action has been lacking, threatening biodiversity and the Sundarbans’ survival as Bangladesh’s primary oxygen source. Vigilant forest guards and awareness campaigns are essential for preventing illegal activities such as poaching and arson. Read more: Dhaka Tribune

 

BNP expels 61 more leaders for contesting upazila polls

The BNP has expelled 61 leaders, including the chairman, vice chairman, and female vice chairman candidates, for defying the party’s decision to boycott the upazila parishad elections. The decision comes ahead of the second phase of the elections, which is scheduled for May 21. The BNP’s Senior Joint Secretary General cited a lack of fair election conditions and prevailing anarchy as reasons for boycotting the polls, echoing the party’s opposition to previous elections under the current government. Read more: Jago News 24

Dr Yunus, 13 other get bail in graft case

A Dhaka court granted bail to Nobel Laureate economist Prof Dr Muhammad Yunus and 13 others accused of misappropriating Taka 25.22 crore from the Grameen Telecom Workers’ Profit Participation Fund. Dr. Yunus’ lawyer applied for bail, and the charge framing hearing has been scheduled for June 2. Other accused include Grameen Telecom officials and union representatives. The Anti-Corruption Commission initiated the case last year, alleging money laundering and misappropriation of funds. Read more: The Daily Observer

Bangladesh slips 2 notches to 165th in RSF press freedom index

Bangladesh’s press freedom fell two notches in the 2024 World Press Freedom Index, ranking 165th out of 180 countries surveyed with a score of 27.64, compared to 35.31 last year. The country has slipped 13 notches in the last three years. The RSF highlighted challenges in Bangladesh, such as limited media access for a large portion of the population and the dominance of state-owned outlets used as propaganda channels. Private media faces ownership and government influence issues, with attacks on journalists and judicial harassment becoming commonplace. The Cybersecurity Act was chastised for further restricting press freedom. Read more: Prothom Alo

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Heatwaves in Bangladesh: Response Plan

Summarized by De/Cypher Team, Published in ReliefWeb

Introduction:

The Bangladesh Red Crescent Society (BDRCS) has launched a Response DREF Operation (MDRBD034) in May 2024 to combat Bangladesh’s severe heatwave. With millions affected and fatalities reported from heatstroke, the operation aims to provide relief to vulnerable populations such as rickshaw pullers and street vendors across several districts.

Operational Overview:

• The Response DREF Operation covers Barisal, Dhaka, Khulna, Rajshahi, and Rangpur.
• A budget of CHF 342,337 has been allocated for relief efforts until August 31, 2024, with a focus on timely procurement, staff rotation, and provision of personal protective items.
• The strategy draws on lessons from previous operations, emphasizing the engagement of the National Disaster Response Team (NDRT) members for support and reporting.

BDRCS’s Early Action Protocol (EAP) Activation:

• On April 21, 2024, the BDRCS launched an EAP in Dhaka, focusing on awareness campaigns, leaflet distribution, and water bottle provision.
• Over 200 volunteers were mobilized, and cooling stations were established to provide first-aid support.
• The organization prioritizes protection, gender equality, and inclusion for vulnerable groups.

Health Risks and Vulnerable Populations:

• The severe heatwave exacerbates health risks for low-income individuals, outdoor workers, elderly, children, pregnant women, and those with pre-existing conditions.
• A surge in heat-related illnesses and waterborne diseases necessitates urgent action to protect vulnerable populations.

Targeting and Community Engagement:

• Relief efforts prioritize vulnerable groups, such as children, pregnant women, the elderly, and those working outdoors.
• Community engagement entails sharing accurate health information and prevention strategies through various channels.

Planned Intervention:

• The operational strategy aims to support 500,000 affected individuals with health, protection, risk reduction, and community engagement initiatives.
• Activities include raising awareness, distributing safe drinking water, establishing cooling stations, and offering first aid and psychosocial support.

Operational Execution and Monitoring:

• The operation involves over 400 volunteers and 50 BDRCS staff.
• BDRCS manages procurement activities, with IFRC support for specific items.
• IFRC and BDRCS collaborate to provide regular operational progress reports and updates.

Communication Strategy:

• BDRCS works with IFRC to improve communication, including press releases, social media engagement, and public communication.
• Key messages are disseminated to raise awareness and engagement with the operation.

Conclusion:

The Response DREF Operation in Bangladesh seeks to mitigate the heatwave’s impact on vulnerable populations through targeted interventions, community engagement, and strategic collaboration among BDRCS, IFRC, and other partners.

Read the full report here.

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CIA chief travels to Doha with Gaza talks ‘near to collapse’

An official briefed on negotiations between Israel and Hamas says CIA Chief Bill Burns is traveling to Qatar’s capital for an emergency meeting with the country’s prime minister, as talks “near to collapse.” Read more: Middle East Eye

Israel orders Al Jazeera to close its local operation and seizes some of its equipment

Israel has ordered the closure of Al Jazeera’s local office and confiscated some of its equipment. This comes amid ongoing disputes between Israel and Qatar’s broadcaster. Notably, the shutdown occurred as Qatar was mediating a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Read more: AP 

Japan seeks Sri Lanka recovery for regional stability

Yoko Kamikawa, Japan’s Foreign Minister, emphasized the importance of Sri Lanka’s economic recovery to Indo-Pacific stability. During talks with her Sri Lankan counterpart, Ali Sabry, Kamikawa urged Colombo to quickly restructure its foreign debt and reach agreements with bilateral lenders and international sovereign bondholders to restore suspended foreign funding. Read more: The Japan Times

North Korea bolsters leader Kim with birthday loyalty oaths

According to a South Korean research institute, for the first time since Kim Jong Un assumed power in 2011, North Koreans were asked to take loyalty oaths on his 40th birthday, which is believed to be January 8, 2024. The loyalty oaths were administered as part of efforts to strengthen Kim’s rule and signal a shift toward political assertiveness. Read more: CNA

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