De/Cypher Data Dive 📈
Af-Pak De/Cypher
4 March, 2024
The Afghanistan-Pakistan Border Dispute
Written by De/Cypher Team
Historical Context
Afghanistan-Pakistan (Af-Pak) relations have been tumultuous, characterized by areas of cooperation and contention. One of the primary sources of conflict between the two nations include a long-standing border dispute, dating back to British colonial rule. The “Durand Line” drawn by the British, consolidated the demarcation of the Pakistani and Afghani territories in a predominantly Pashtun belt. Afghanistan which comprises a majority Pashtun population sees the area of present-day Waziristan (in Pakistan) as a part of Afghani territory. They were not happy with the division and demanded a more porous border. Waziristan with time has emerged as a highly militarized area where lawlessness and terror run rampant.
Pakistan’s Influence on Afghan Politics
Pakistan has played a major role in shaping Afghanistan’s history and polity. The Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency, along with Saudi Arabia was paramount in the training of the Mujahideen who were used to beat the Soviets. The support that Pakistan advanced to the Afghan Mujahideen included military and logistical help, along with being the key liaison between the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) of the US and the Afghan resistance groups. The conflict within Afghanistan also led to a major refugee problem for Pakistan, whose economic repercussions are still felt today. Pakistan was also the central breeding ground for the radical Islamist group Taliban which originated in the region and presently rule Afghanistan. Pakistan saw the Taliban as an ally and a means of establishing their dominance in Afghanistan, however, things changed radically with the 9/11 terror attacks on the United States.
The Impact of Post-9/11 Dynamics on Waziristan
Following 9/11, Af-Pak relations deteriorated significantly, with the border issue becoming extremely volatile, and the presence of Taliban leaders in Pakistan making matters worse. The Afghani refugee camps in the country were fertile grounds for most of the Taliban cadre and terrorism also began to see a rise in the region. Waziristan was one such area that was deeply affected by these changing relations. The people of Waziristan are troubled by the increasing terror the Taliban brings due to the porous nature of the border. While the Pakistani forces patrol the town during the day and multiple checkpoints have been established in the area, the fall of night brings a different story to the fore. The check-posts are abandoned and the people are left to fend for themselves.
The Tehrik-i-Taliban (TTP), an offshoot of the Taliban, officially recognised as a terrorist body, is essentially responsible for most of the violence in Waziristan presently. The TTP refuses to acknowledge the Durand Line and sees the area as essentially Afghan territory. Its mission is to establish an independent state in the borderlands and they have used violence in their mission to do so. Typical of Taliban fashion, the TTP has created an aura of fear and naked violence in the region. They seek to establish a regime based on Islamic Extremism and entice the youth with wealth and power. They are dangerous and an existential threat to the people of the area. Pakistan has to crack down on the organization and create a strategic plan to bring stability to the region.
Top Stories from the Week…
Shehbaz Sharif, Pakistan’s new prime minister
On Sunday, Pakistan’s newly formed parliament elected Shehbaz Sharif as prime minister for the second time, defeating Omar Ayub by 201 votes. This follows weeks of delays due to uncertain national elections. Read more: The Express Tribune
PTI protests against ‘rigging’ met with arrests across country
The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party protested across the country against alleged rigging in the February 8 general elections. During the protests, Punjab police reportedly arrested and thrashed several PTI workers and leaders. Around 80 protesters were arrested in Lahore alone, with demonstrations taking place in 38 cities throughout Punjab. Read more: Dawn
Amid X outage, ban sought on all social media
Senator Bahramand Khan Tangi of Pakistan’s upper house of parliament has called for a permanent ban on all social media platforms in response to the ongoing disruption of the social media platform X (formerly known as Twitter). Read more: Dawn
Britain to bar entry to ‘hate preachers’ from Pakistan, other Asian countries
According to reports, the UK government is working on plans to prevent hate preachers with extremist Islamist views from entering the country from Pakistan, Afghanistan, or Indonesia. Concerns about a “shocking increase” in extremist activity prompted officials to identify and add the most dangerous international extremists to visa warning lists. Read more: Geo TV
China rolls over $2 billion loan to Pakistan, finance minister says
China has extended a $2 billion loan to Pakistan, as confirmed by caretaker finance minister Shamshad Akhtar. The loan, originally due in March, has been rolled over for another year. Read more: The Business Recorder
Pakistan hopes for ‘greater success’ at LEAP conference in Riyadh amid push to grow local IT industry — minister
Pakistan’s Caretaker Information Technology (IT) Minister, Umar Saif, expressed optimism for “greater success” at the LEAP 2024 conference in Riyadh, aiming to strengthen the country’s local IT industry in the Middle East. Read more: Arab News
IMF proposes overhaul of Pakistan’s tax system to increase revenue
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has proposed a comprehensive overhaul of Pakistan’s tax system to increase revenue, including changes to the personal income tax framework. Read more: Pakistan Today
More than 30 killed in heavy rain
Over 30 people have died in rain-related incidents across the country. The severe rain that began on Thursday has caused significant disruption, forcing all schools in Balochistan to close until Thursday. Read more: The Express Tribune
Pakistan under Shaky Sharif
Written By Syed Talat Hussain, Published in Talat’s Substack
Pakistan’s political life after the polls and the formation of governments is exactly what it was before the polls—unpredictable, uncertain, living on the edge amidst expanding social chaos
201 votes and 24th Prime Minister. Now that Shehbaz Sharif is back in the seat, Pakistan should get on with the business of governance including primarily fixing a chronically ailing economy.
It should, but it might not. That’s not naysaying a new beginning, but only a realistic assessment of the ground reality.
The foremost hurdle in the smooth functioning of the system is the mayhem that is built into its mechanics. Everyone—and I mean everyone—has a grievance against the election result. Baloch, Pashtun, Sindhi nationalists, and the religious right, everyone is crying rigging.
The more vocal among them, the PTI, has already called the National Assembly farcical and fraudulent. This echoes precisely what they said about the 2013 assemblies—a street legend that culminated in the so-called 126-day protest that wasted endless national energies and subverted the whole system. Of course, then it was the Establishment that first civil-engineered this chaos and then let loose Imran upon the assemblies as Pindi and Aabpara’s pet plague.
It is different at present. He is in jail and the Establishment wants to see the assemblies start their work. But anger levels are too high this time around. Bitterness, pettiness, and a mob mentality rule every facet of the present order. The treatment meted out to a female member of the PMLN in the KP assembly’s oath-taking ceremony is but one example of such a lot now feels empowered as a mob and can pounce upon anyone at any point in the name of mandate. The KP under Mr Gandapur looks set to become political intrigue’s paradise and the weakest link in the stability of the system.
The crucial province, from where Imran Khan won a landslide majority, is the jailed leader’s revenge upon an Establishment that he can’t hate enough.
This hate-filled momentum will be reflected in the National Assembly and also in the Punjab Assembly where the PTI and associates have substantial presence. Their mandate from the jail is just one word: sabotage. Sabotage proceedings, sabotage legislation, sabotage personalities, sabotage functioning of the state (consider the letter to the IMF pleading to halt its economic dealings with this government).
So it’s going to be sabotage and of course endless protest. A minority government under such vicious attack from all sides will at best be surviving with the skin of teeth borrowed from shaky allies. But that is not what will save this country from further disasters. A strong arrangement would. That however is not what we have, Shehbaz’s 201 votes notwithstanding.
… Read the full opinion here.
Bangladesh De/Cypher
4 March, 2024
Myanmar’s Civil War Spillover: Impact on Bangladesh
Written by De/Cypher Team
Escalation of Conflict
Myanmar’s civil war, particularly in Rakhine state, has taken a toll on its neighbor, Bangladesh. Since November 2023, fighting between Myanmar’s junta and the Arakan Army rebel group has intensified, making the situation increasingly precarious. Casualties have been reported on both sides of the border, with stray mortar rounds killing people in Bangladesh’s Bandarban District, emphasizing the immediate impact on Bangladeshi civilians.
Rohingya Refugee Crisis
Bangladesh, home to more than a million Rohingya refugees, is at the center of the crisis. The predominantly Muslim Rohingya minority fled Myanmar, particularly following the brutal “clearance operation” in 2017. Now, with the Arakan Army seeking autonomy from Myanmar’s central government, Rohingya refugees in Cox’s Bazar are skeptical of the rebels’ ability to improve their situation, even if they are successful against the junta.
Security Concerns and Border Dynamics
The conflict has raised security concerns in Bangladesh, which is closely monitoring the situation. The influx of Rohingya refugees over the years has strained resources, prompting Bangladesh’s reluctance to accept additional refugees. In a decisive move, Bangladesh announced that no more Rohingya refugees from Myanmar would be allowed to enter the country. Minister Quader emphasized the strain on resources caused by the Rohingya presence, citing a reduction in international aid. Over 327 Myanmar border troops and police officers, some injured, have sought refuge in Bangladesh, emphasizing the volatile situation.
Diplomatic Efforts and International Support
Bangladesh’s Foreign Minister, Hasan Mahmud, recently visited India to discuss the crisis. The talks focused on how to work together to address the Myanmar situation, with an emphasis on regional stability and peace. Discussions also covered the Rohingya refugee issue, the Teesta water-sharing agreement, and trade barriers, demonstrating the conflict’s multifaceted impact on bilateral relations. Donald Lu, the US Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia, expressed concern about the security risks posed by the Rohingya crisis in Bangladesh and India. Lu acknowledged Bangladesh’s generosity in hosting the refugees and emphasized the need for international cooperation to address the crisis.
Humanitarian Crisis and Response
The International Rescue Committee (IRC) reported a surge in displaced people crossing the Myanmar border, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis. Over 2.7 million people are internally displaced in Myanmar, with 800,000 more displaced since October 2023. Despite Bangladesh’s current stance on accepting more refugees, the IRC is ready to expand its response in Cox’s Bazar if necessary.
With the crisis showing no signs of ceasing, Bangladesh is seeking assistance from the international community, including donors, to meet the mounting humanitarian needs. Collaboration between Bangladesh and foreign organizations is critical in managing the growing situation and giving assistance to individuals affected by the disaster.
Top Stories from the Week…
Hasan Mahmud to join OIC meeting on Israeli aggression
Foreign Minister Hasan Mahmud, who is currently in Türkiye, is scheduled to attend an extraordinary meeting of the OIC Council of Foreign Ministers in Jeddah to address Israel’s ongoing aggression against the Palestinians. Read more: The Daily Star
Bangladesh to start importing essentials from Russia
Bangladesh is set to sign a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Russia to begin importing essential food products on a government-to-government basis. The MoU, aims to address the disruption in imports caused by the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Read more: The Business Post
Japan grants $2.7m each to Unicef, IOM for Rohingya refugees
Japan has pledged $2.7 million each to the United Nations Children’s Fund (Unicef) and the International Organization for Migration (IOM) to assist Rohingya refugees and host communities in Cox’s Bazar. Read more: The Business Standard
Army chief leaves for Qatar to attend DIMDEX-2024
General SM Shafiuddin Ahmed, Chief of Army Staff, has traveled to Qatar to attend the Doha International Maritime Defence Exhibition and Conference (DIMDEX 2024). Read more: The Bangla Herald
Remittance hits 8-month high in Feb
In February, remittance inflows increased by 39% to $2.16 billion, the highest level in eight months. This increase was attributed to expatriate Bangladeshis taking advantage of higher exchange rates offered by some banks, which went above the official rate of Tk 110 per dollar. Read more: The Daily Star
Prof Yunus gets bail in ACC, labour law cases
Nobel laureate Professor Muhammad Yunus was granted bail in two separate cases in Dhaka, Bangladesh. The Dhaka Metropolitan Senior Special Judge’s Court granted bail to Yunus and seven others in a case involving alleged embezzlement of Tk 25.22 crore from the Grameen Telecom Workers Profit Participation Fund, with the next hearing scheduled for April 2. Read more: New Age
Krishi Bank hides Tk3,188 crore defaulted loans thru window-dressing
Bangladesh Krishi Bank, the leading agricultural sector financier, is under investigation for allegedly concealing approximately Tk3,188 crore in defaulted loans, accounting for roughly 50% of total defaulted loans, using “window dressing.” Read more: The Business Post
44 dead in Bailey Road building fire
On Thursday night, a devastating fire engulfed a commercial building on Baily Road in Dhaka, killing at least 44 people and leaving over 20 others seriously injured. Read more: Dhaka Tribune
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Asia Headlines Quick Recap 🌏
South Korea moves to suspend licenses of 7,000 doctors, health official says
South Korea’s government has announced plans to suspend the licenses of approximately 7,000 trainee doctors who defied a back-to-work order while on strike. This decision came in response to doctors’ protests against the government’s plan to increase medical school admissions. Read more: Reuters
Malaysia’s widening anti-graft probe zeroing in on high-profile corporate bailouts of the Mahathir era
The Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) is expanding its investigation into prominent figures such as former finance minister Daim Zainuddin and former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad’s sons. The investigation focuses on controversial state-funded bailouts of businessmen associated with the two leaders in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Read more: CNA
Chinese firms agree to raise investment in Democratic Republic of Congo copper-cobalt mining deal
Two Chinese companies, Sinohydro Corp and China Railway Group, have agreed to increase their investment in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) as part of a minerals-for-infrastructure deal. The deal, involving the Sicomines copper and cobalt joint venture, has been increased from the previous US$3 billion to a total of US$7 billion for infrastructure development. Read more: SCMP
U.S. seeks to revive idled shipyards with help of Japan, South Korea
The United States hopes to revive idle shipyards with Asian investment, particularly from Japan and South Korea. The aim is to increase naval shipbuilding capacity, which is critical in countering China’s growing fleet. Read more: Nikkei Asia
