Note: This edition of De/Cypher follows an analysis of the India General Election results 2024, allowing us to consider the possibility of shifting dynamics with neighbouring countries such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Afghanistan.
India’s Modi sworn in as PM for third term
Narendra Modi has been sworn in as India’s prime minister for a third term in a ceremony at the presidential palace in Delhi. The leader of the Bharatiya Janata Party took his oath, saying he would “do right to all manner of people without affection or ill-will”. Mr. Modi’s BJP-led National Democratic Alliance won the general election with 293 seats, a much lower margin than predicted by exit polls. Thousands of guests have been attending his inauguration at Delhi’s presidential palace. Among them are the heads of neighboring Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives – but not Pakistan or China. Read more: Reuters
De/Cypher Data Dive 📈
The Election Commission of India announced the General Election 2024 results, revealing that the BJP won 240 seats and the Congress secured 99 out of total 543 seats. This is a decrease from the BJP’s previous victories, when it won 303 seats in the 2019 general elections and 282 seats in the 2014 general elections.
Af-Pak De/Cypher
10 June, 2024
Economy
Pakistan and China sign 23 MOUs aimed at strengthening bilateral ties across multiple sectors
Pakistan and China have signed 23 Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs) aimed at enhancing collaboration across various sectors. The MoUs signed Friday in Islamabad included transportation infrastructure, industry, energy, agriculture, media, healthcare, water management, socio economic development, and other mutual areas of interest. Following delegation-level discussions between Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Chinese Premier Li Qiang in Beijing, Foreign Office spokesperson Mumtaz Zahra Baloch briefed the media, emphasizing the robust Pakistan-China Strategic Cooperative Partnership founded on mutual trust, shared principles, and strategic governance. Read more: Express Tribune
Pakistan’s impoverished Balochistan province reports six cases of highly contagious Congo virus
Pakistan’s southwestern Balochistan province has reported six cases of the Congo virus, or Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever (CCHF), this year, health officials said on Sunday, warning the number could go up ahead of Eid Al-Adha. Ticks and contact with infected animals can spread the highly contagious Congo virus. Outbreaks require swift action to prevent further spread. It leads to severe symptoms and can be fatal if not treated promptly, particularly in endemic regions such as parts of Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. Officials at Fatima Jinnah Chest Hospital in Quetta, the only facility that treats Congo virus patients in Balochistan, reported that three of the six Congo virus patients were women, who had been discharged after treatment, while three men were still admitted to the hospital’s isolation ward. Read more: Arab News
Awais invites Chinese firm to set solar panels fabrication in Pakistan
Minister for Power Division Sardar Awais Ahmed Khan Leghari on Saturday invited the Chinese company LONGi Green Energy Technology Co. Ltd. to set up a solar PV manufacturing plant in Pakistan. In a meeting with President of LONGi Green Energy Company, Zhenguo Li, the minister invited him to set up the solar manufacturing plant in Pakistan, according to a statement issued by the Power Division here. Read more: Express Tribune
Internal Politics 🏛️
Budget 2024-25: NEC meets today amid calls for more uplift funding
The newly constituted National Economic Council (NEC) is set to convene today (Monday) to review ongoing and future investments and set targets for the next fiscal year. The planning division is pushing to raise the federal Public Sector Development Programme to Rs 1.5 trillion next year instead of the Rs 1.22 trillion that the Annual Plan Coordination Committee (APCC) recommended last week. In the midst of this, the council is aiming to achieve a growth rate of 3.6 percent. Under the leadership of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, the highest constitutional forum on economic policymaking would examine a six-point agenda. The 13-member body also comprises four provincial chief ministers, four federal ministers (for foreign affairs, defense, finance, and planning), and four provincial cabinet members from the respective provinces. Read more: Dawn
Security
Roadside bombing targeting security convoy kills 7 soldiers in northwest Pakistan
A roadside bomb near a security convoy in north-western Pakistan killed seven soldiers, including an army captain, indicating increased militant attacks on security forces. The attack occurred in Lakki Marwat, a Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province district bordering Afghanistan. While no group claimed responsibility, the Pakistani Taliban is suspected due to their strong presence in the region. Read more: Ground News
15 terrorists arrested during intelligence operations in Pakistan’s Punjab
An official stated on Saturday that police in Pakistan’s Punjab province had detained up to 15 terrorists from outlawed militant groups after they stopped a significant terrorist attack. A spokesperson for the Counter Terrorism Department (CTD) said the terrorists were arrested this week during intelligence-based operations in Lahore, Rawalpindi, Sargodha, Gujranwala, Multan, Toba Tek Singh, Muzaffargarh, Attock, Mianwali, Faisalabad and Chiniot. Read more: Business Standard
Pakistan And The World🌐
Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif meets China’s Xi in Beijing ahead of IMF talks
China’s President Xi Jinping met Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in Beijing on Friday, Chinese state media reported, days before Pakistan presented its annual budget and applied for a new International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan. Pakistan’s location on the Arabian Sea gives it strategic importance for China, providing an overland route out towards the Gulf of Aden and onto the Suez Canal and enabling Chinese ships to avoid the potential chokepoint of the Malacca Strait. Read more: Reuters
The Future of India-Pakistan Ties
Written By De/Cypher Team
India and Pakistan relations remain tense as the new government under the leadership of PM Modi’s is sworn in. In the first two governments led by PM Modi, there has been an assertive stance with regards to foreign policy which has contributed to a significant increase in military spending. Following the doctrine of offensive defense articulated by the NSA advisor Ajit Doval, with India’s defence budget reaching a record $72 billion in 2023. Simultaneously, Pakistan grapples with internal political instability following Imran Khan’s removal and the formation of a new coalition government. The Pakistani military’s considerable influence adds another layer of complexity, inevitably shaping its posture towards India.
These internal dynamics are compounded by the increasingly divergent foreign policy goals of the two nations. India, under PM Modi, seeks to project its growing economic and geopolitical clout, exemplified by its burgeoning $3.9 trillion GDP Conversely, Pakistan, facing economic challenges with a GDP of $338 billion, seeks to maintain strategic relevance through closer ties with China, as evidenced by its $65 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor project.
Two major issues continue to overshadow bilateral relations:
- The Border Dispute: Initial optimism of the first Modi cabinet surrounding India-Pakistan relations following Modi’s 2014 election proved short-lived. Despite diplomatic openings, including the invitation of PM Nawaz Sharif, PM Modi’s surprise 2015 Pakistan visit, the 2016 Uri attack, by Pakistan-based militants marked a turning point. Cross-border violence surged, with over 3,000 ceasefire violations in 2017 alone. While a ceasefire was reinstated in 2018, underlying tensions persisted. The 2019 revocation of Article 370, altering Jammu and Kashmir’s status has been a flashpoint. The border dispute is one of the primary reasons of the Pakistani military being in charge of much of the economy and polity so much so that scholars such as Isthiaq Ahmed have argued that Pakistan has become a ‘garrison state‘.
- The Indus Water Treaty and Climate Change: The Indus Water Treaty, a crucial agreement regulating water sharing since 1960, faces new challenges due to climate change. The melting of Himalayan glaciers, altered precipitation patterns, and increased frequency of extreme weather events threaten the delicate balance of the Indus river system, vital to the well-being of both nations. While both nations have cooperated during past natural disasters, disagreements over the ongoing hydropower projects and their potential impact on each country’s water security issue threaten to escalate tensions.
- The strengthening of Sino-Pakistan Ties: The strategic relationship between China and Pakistan is at an all time high. The two countries have active alliances and agreements in almost all domains. Pakistan and China have signed 23 MOUs, including in transportation infrastructure, industry, energy, agriculture, media, healthcare, water management, socioeconomic development, and other areas of interest. Often described as an “all weather” partnership, the Sino-Pakistan proximity cannot be overlooked by India. The two are the most significant security threats that India faces in the subcontinent. Economic engagement already exists between the two for the CPEC and the BRI.
Opportunities for engagement exist between India and Pakistan, particularly in addressing shared concerns like climate change, cross-border terrorism, and regional connectivity. However, the path towards improvement remains challenging. This challenge is highlighted by the notable absence of Pakistan from PM Modi’s third swearing-in ceremony.
Regional meeting on Afghanistan held in Iran
Special representatives of Iran, China, Russia and Pakistan attended the meeting held at the Iranian Foreign Ministry’s Institute for Political and International Studies. In a message sent to the meeting, Iranian Caretaker Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani said that the United States should release Afghanistan’s assets, which had previously been frozen. He added almost three years had elapsed since the U.S. troops’ withdrawal from Afghanistan, the country was still struggling to solve outstanding problems in economy and development. Bagheri Kani noted that although Afghanistan’s caretaker government had managed to attain achievements in tackling certain challenges, the freezing of the country’s assets had hindered post-war recovery. Read more: Xinhua
Taliban decline to attend regional meeting on Afghanistan in Tehran
The Afghan government has declined to participate in a regional meeting on Afghanistan held in Tehran, a senior Taliban diplomat said on Saturday. Zakir Jalaly, the third political director of the foreign ministry, wrote on X that the Afghan government expects that established mechanisms should be used for discussions on Afghanistan, not new ones. Read more: Daijiworld
What Lies Ahead: India-Afghanistan
Written By Priyanka Garodia, Geopolitical Research Analyst – South Asia
Since 1947, India’s foreign policy has been distinguished by a strong regional focus. It has insisted on using peaceful and collaborative methods to maintain regional stability and has resorted to the use of hard power only when essential. Neighborhood diplomacy has been a pillar of Indian foreign policy since its independence. Every government, regardless of party, has endorsed this idea. The Neighbourhood First Policy (2008) and the Gujral Doctrine (1997) have stressed the need to build powerful partnerships among neighbors and to ensure cooperation in terms of economics, defense, technology and climate research.
The NDA led coalition government that has come to power in 2024, with Narendra Modi, taking the mantle of Indian Prime Minister for the third time, comes with its own geostrategic needs in regional cooperation and counterbalance. India grapples with the Pakistan-China all weather partnership, the Maldives question, the Sri Lanka issue, and its skirmishes with Nepal. Afghanistan and its Taliban government also pose an important strategic question for the South Asian country.
The Early Years
Afghanistan and India share important civilizational ties and have had deep-rooted cultural exchanges. A ‘Treaty of Friendship’ was signed between the two nations in 1950, establishing a partnership in economic and development assistance for mutual benefit. The post 9/11 scenario led to India adopting a more “assistance-driven” foreign policy approach towards the country rather than military engagement. India took a backstep with the increased presence of Pakistan in the internal affairs of Afghanistan post-9/11. India, despite its limited presence in Afghanistan, is engaged in the fields of irrigation, agriculture and hydroelectric projects. Diplomatic relations between Afghanistan and India came to a standstill when the Taliban took over the country in 1996, but diplomatic ties were resumed with its fall.
The Taliban 2.0
Afghanistan has been instrumental for India in its strategic calculations against Pakistan, where it sees a ‘zero-sum’ situation, i.e., the loss for one party would mean a gain for the other party. The fall of Kabul in 2021, after the withdrawal of the American troops, was seen as a strategic victory for Pakistan. Despite its embassies being shut down in the country and the arduous task of evacuating its citizens, India still maintained communication with Afghanistan. It helped when faced with a severe economic crisis due to failed crops, it was one of the swiftest and largest donors of food aid to the country. In exchange, the Taliban offered to ensure the security of returning Indian workers, and the embassy was opened up in Kabul again. While operations have not reached 100% capacity, it is a start.
What Next?
India needs to build a strategic presence in Afghanistan that it lacks presently. Given Afghanistan’s geostrategic value as a strong counter to Pakistani aggression, India needs to create a new Afghan policy that takes into account regional calculations and players, with a little more attention to detail. Some ways could include:
- Afghanistan-Pakistan relations are in a dilapidated state, with trust running low on either side. India should leverage this tension to build a more consolidated base in Afghanistan.
- The Chinese are becoming a palpable force in Afghanistan, symbolizing greater control in one of the more strategic countries in the region. India needs to calibrate its economic and diplomatic arsenal to remain relevant and present in Afghanistan, not allowing the Chinese more clout than it has.
- India can leverage regional bodies like the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) to conduct operations and engage with the Taliban more effectively to promote a more inclusive environment in the country.
Afghanistan is a country in crisis, where economic failure has been exacerbated by a severe climate crisis, Malnutrition and starvation figures are at an all time high. Severe floods, droughts, and heatwaves raised the risks of crop failure, livestock starvation, crop or animal disease, and pests. Afghanistan ranks 114th out of 125 countries on the Global Hunger Index. The Indian government has sent out a technical team to evaluate the situation. The NDA led government can see a more robust role in the country, it wills to do so.
Bangladesh De/Cypher
10 June, 2024
Economy
Economic stability, fighting corruption among main priorities
The national budget for the fiscal year 2024-25, unveiled by Finance Minister Abul Hassan Mahmood Ali, prioritizes economic stability, financial discipline, and a zero-tolerance policy against corruption. Other key areas of focus include enhancing science education and research, supporting agriculture and food security, improving health services, promoting youth training and self-employment, digitizing services, developing infrastructure, and addressing climate change. The budget aims to transform Bangladesh into a developed, prosperous, and smart country by 2041, aligning with the priorities outlined in the Awami League’s election manifesto. Read more: Prothom Alo
Govt aims for cashless transactions by 2031, full broadband coverage by 2041: Document
The government has set ambitious goals to transition to cashless transactions by 2031 and achieve full broadband coverage by 2041. An official document presented to Parliament outlines these objectives, along with aims to reach an average per capita income of $12,500 and eradicate poverty by 2041. The plan includes fostering a Smart Economy through industry modernization, ICT sector expansion, and technological advancements, aiming for 2.5% Total Factor Productivity growth in GDP. The government also targets creating 50 unicorn startups by 2041 and ensuring 3% Foreign Direct Investment in GDP by 2031. Read more: TBS
Gazaria’s gas crisis halts factories’ production
Several factories in Gazaria, Munshiganj, including Pacific Denims Limited, have halted production due to repeated gas supply cuts by Titas Gas Transmission and Distribution Company, which began on February 25 without prior notice. The disruption, linked to actions against illegal gas connections, has led to significant financial losses, with Pacific Denims alone losing at least Taka 20 crore. Factory owners have appealed to the Bangladesh Investment Development Authority (BIDA) for intervention. Despite a BIDA meeting on June 6 urging Titas to restore gas supplies, the issue remains unresolved, forcing factories to rely on costly alternatives or cease operations entirely. Read more: Business Post
Bangladesh globally second in freshwater fish production
Bangladesh has moved up to second place globally in freshwater fish production, surpassing China, according to the latest FAO report “The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2024.” This progress is attributed to initiatives such as hilsa sanctuaries and seasonal fishing bans. Bangladesh produced 1.32 million tonnes of freshwater fish in 2022, representing 11.7% of global production. The country has also made advancements in marine fish production, rising to 14th place globally. Read more: Prothom Alo
6,000 more doctors to be recruited to fill vacant posts: Health minister
The Health and Family Welfare Minister, Dr. Samanta Lal Sen, announced that the government will recruit 6,000 doctors to address vacancies in health institutions across Bangladesh. This statement was made in a written response at the national parliament on June 9. Additionally, a proposal for appointing 2,000 doctors in the first phase has already been submitted to the Directorate General of Health Services. Read more: Rising BD
Internal Politics 🏛️
PM defends budgetary proposal for whitening black money
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina defended the budgetary provision for legalizing black money, asserting it should be integrated into the legal financial system with a nominal tax. Addressing concerns that this might discourage legal taxpayers, she emphasized the need to first bring such money into the banking system. She highlighted the significant increase in budget size under her government and the focus on education, health, agriculture, and social safety. Hasina also addressed inflation, the provision of family cards for essential goods, and the importance of enhancing food production and supply to control prices. Read more: TBS
National Tree Plantation Campaign begins today
The ‘National Tree Plantation Campaign and Tree Fair-2024’ and ‘Environment Fair’ kick off in the capital today to mark World Environment Day. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina will inaugurate the event, with various awards and recognitions set to be conferred. The campaign aims to plant 8.33 crore saplings during the upcoming monsoon. Read more: Bangladesh Post
Bangladesh And The World🌐
Sheikh Hasina, Narendra Modi exchange pleasantries
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi exchanged pleasantries after Modi’s swearing-in ceremony for his third consecutive term. They greeted each other warmly and inquired about one another. Following the ceremony, Modi showed Hasina the banquet hall and accompanied her to the dinner hosted by President Smt. Droupadi Murmu at Rashtrapati Bhavan. Sheikh Hasina attended the ceremony with her daughter Saima Wazed. The event saw a record presence of over 8,000 dignitaries. Read more: TBS
PM meets veteran BJP leader Advani in India
During her official visit to India, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina paid a courtesy call to veteran BJP leader LK Advani at his residence in New Delhi. The meeting was brief, with three photos released by an Indian media outlet, providing no further details. LK Advani, a Bharat Ratna awardee, had a significant political career, serving as the president of the Bharatiya Janata Party and holding key positions like Home Minister and Deputy Prime Minister under Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s leadership. Prime Minister Hasina’s visit aims to strengthen the close and deep-rooted bonds of friendship between Bangladesh and India. Read more: The Daily Star
Bangladesh secures resounding victory in ECOSOC election for 2025-2027
Bangladesh secures a resounding victory in the ECOSOC election for the 2025-2027 term, garnering 181 out of 189 votes at the UN headquarters in New York. Alongside Saudi Arabia, Sri Lanka, and Uzbekistan, Bangladesh’s election shows its prominent role in multilateral diplomacy, particularly in development and social issues. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s leadership and Bangladesh’s progress towards Agenda 2030 and Vision 2041 are lauded internationally. Ambassador Muhammad Abdul Muhith, Permanent Representative of Bangladesh to the UN, was also elected as the Chair of the Economic and Financial Committee of the UN General Assembly. Read more: Dhaka Tribune
Japanese special envoy Yohei Sasakawa in Dhaka
Yohei Sasakawa, the Japanese Special Envoy for National Reconciliation in Myanmar and Chairman of the Nippon Foundation, is currently on a two-day visit to Bangladesh. He arrived in Dhaka yesterday and was welcomed at the airport by Additional Foreign Secretary Md Nazrul Islam. Sasakawa, with over 20 years of experience in the business sector, joined The Nippon Foundation in 1981. Read more: The Daily Star
Continuity and Collaboration: Bangladesh-India Relations Post-2024 General Election
Written By De/Cypher Team
While the outcome of the Indian parliamentary elections was unexpected, it is unlikely to cause significant changes in the country’s foreign policy. Bangladesh and India have deep historical ties, with India’s pivotal role in Bangladesh’s liberation war in 1971 significantly strengthening relations, particularly under Prime Ministers Modi and Hasina.
Economic Collaboration and Connectivity Initiatives
Bangladesh is India’s largest trading partner in South Asia, with bilateral trade expected to reach $15.9 billion in fiscal year 2022-23. Notably, energy cooperation has emerged as a key component of this relationship, as evidenced by Bangladesh’s import of 1,160 MW of power from India. Collaborative efforts in the energy sector, such as the construction of power plants and cross-border electricity transmission lines, have been critical in meeting Bangladesh’s energy needs and promoting overall development.
Connectivity projects have been a focus of leadership under Modi and Hasina, with efforts aimed at revitalizing old railway lines, establishing new bus and train services, and improving border infrastructure to encourage people-to-people contact and economic activity. Notable infrastructure projects, such as the India-Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline and various railway projects funded by India’s Lines of Credit program, demonstrate the country’s commitment to strengthening bilateral ties.
Security and Defense Cooperation
In the realm of security, India and Bangladesh have demonstrated substantial progress in enhancing cooperation through various measures, including joint military exercises, expanded defense training exchanges, and collaborative efforts in countering terrorism and transnational crimes. Bangladesh has specifically sought increased support from India in addressing the Rohingya crisis, anticipating a more proactive role from India under its continued leadership.
Environmental Cooperation and Policy Challenges
While both countries work together to conserve biodiversity in the Sundarbans, the plight of its residents has received little attention in policy discussions. Regional intergovernmental organizations, such as SAARC and BIMSTEC, could provide platforms for India and Bangladesh to exchange ideas on how to address climate migration challenges, which have significant political implications.
Conclusion
Under Modi- Hasina’s leadership, India-Bangladesh relations have made significant progress in areas such as trade, connectivity, defense, and cultural exchanges. While issues such as the Teesta Water Sharing Agreement remain unresolved, ongoing discussions demonstrate both leaders’ commitment to strengthening bilateral ties. The positive rapport between Modi and Hasina, combined with tangible benefits, lays a solid foundation for future cooperation between India and Bangladesh.
Headlines Quick Recap
Palestine welcomes UN’s decision to add Israeli army to global ‘list of shame’
Palestine has welcomed the United Nations’ decision to add the Israeli army to the global “list of shame” for violations against children. Read more: Andalou Ajansi
South Korea, US to hold new round of nuclear planning talks in Seoul
South Korea and the United States are holding talks in Seoul to enhance coordination of their nuclear response to potential North Korean threats. Read more: Reuters
Pakistan, Somalia, Panama, Denmark and Greece elected to UN Security Council
Pakistan, Somalia, Panama, Denmark, and Greece have been elected as non-permanent members of the UN Security Council for two-year terms starting on January 1, 2025. They will replace Ecuador, Japan, Malta, Mozambique, and Switzerland. Read more: UN
Vietnam national security police confirm arrest of prominent writer Truong Huy San for Facebook post
Vietnamese authorities have charged prominent journalist and historian Truong Huy San, known by his pen name Huy Duc, with violating national security laws due to his Facebook posts. Read more: AP
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