Data Dive 📊- Decypher
Asia Headlines: Quick Recap
The 66 terabytes of documents on ISIS driving a wedge between UN and Baghdad
The Iraqi government and the United Nations investigations mission in the country, which will end this year, do not see eye to eye on who owns the thousands of pieces of evidence gathered on the Islamic State fighters. (intelligence Online)
Iranian soldier kills 5 comrades in southeastern city where Daesh attack killed dozens, state TV says
An Iranian soldier opened fire on fellow soldiers Sunday, killing five of them in the southeastern city of Kerman, where 94 people were killed in a bombing attack earlier this month, Iranian state TV reported. (Arab News)
Iran Launches Air Defense Drill Amid Rising Regional Tensions
Iran successfully deployed drones in air defense drill amid regional tensions, covering Abadan to Chahbahar. The US and Israel accuse Iran of supplying drones to Middle East armed groups; Iran seizes ship in retaliation. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Yemen’s presidential council appeals to world to label Houthis terrorists
Yemen’s internationally recognized Presidential Leadership Council asked the world on Sunday to follow the US lead in labeling the Iran-backed Houthis as terrorists and impose stiffer penalties on the militia for jeopardizing international marine trade and perpetrating crimes in Yemen. (Arab News)
China is moving up the rare earth value chain. The West is trying to catch up
Last month, a Chinese firm acquired the entire stockpile at Canada’s first and only operating rare earth mine. Shenghe Resources also bought a 9.9 per cent stake in Vital Metals, the Australian company that owns the project. Shenghe has been importing rare earths from American and Australian miners and processing them in China since 2016. Duan Xiaolin, assistant professor of global studies at Chinese University of Hong Kong in Shenzhen, said China was attempting to make its use of rare earth resources sustainable. “These efforts include environmental regulations, production control, and industrial restructuring to consolidate rare earth production among state-owned enterprises, which has led to an undersupply of rare earth raw ores within China,” (SCMP)
Japan pension giant GPIF opens door to more asset managers
Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund plans to expand its choice of asset managers, bringing in newer companies as part of a push into active management. “We look forward to discovering superior asset management companies by opening our door wider,” GPIF President Masataka Miyazono told reporters Friday. (Nikkei)
Af-Pak De/Cypher
22 Jan, 2024
Iran and Pakistan: The View from Experts
On January 16, Iran launched missile strikes into Pakistan’s Baluchistan province, targeting the anti-Iran insurgent group Jaish al-Adl. In response, Pakistan conducted airstrikes in south-eastern Iran near Saravan, targeting hideouts of armed non-state actors that each country accuses the other of harboring. These military exchanges have raised concerns about potential escalation and their impact on regional conflicts involving Iranian proxies in Yemen and Gaza. Experts from the Atlantic Council have provided analysis and insights on the situation. The international community has limited options to reduce tensions between Iran and Pakistan, and the tit-for-tat strikes risk further destabilizing the Middle East. The motives behind the attacks and the potential outcomes remain uncertain.
In January 2024, there were reciprocal attacks between the two countries, with Iran launching missile strikes into Pakistan’s Balochistan province and Pakistan conducting retaliatory strikes inside Iranian territory. These attacks were directed at militant groups operating in each other’s territory that both countries consider problematic.
The attacks were seen as a significant escalation in the historically peaceful relationship between Iran and Pakistan. Relations between the two countries have been generally functional, with occasional political grievances on both sides. However, the recent attacks broke from the trend of minimal border skirmishes and downplayed conflicts.
The motivations behind the attacks remain somewhat unclear. Iran claimed that its strikes targeted terrorist cells of Jaish al-Adl, a U.S.-designated terrorist group fighting against the Iranian regime. Pakistan, on the other hand, targeted Baloch separatists operating in Iran. The attacks were seen as attempts by both countries to project strength and deterrence, as well as to address internal and external pressures.
The international community has limited options to reduce tensions between Iran and Pakistan. The United States, for example, has seen its influence with Islamabad wane due to its decision to keep Pakistan at arm’s length. Other regional actors, such as Qatar, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, may have a role to play in de-escalating the situation.
It is important to note that the situation is dynamic and subject to change.
What is the Iranian Logic?
The Iranian logic behind the recent attacks on Pakistan remains somewhat opaque. Iran claimed that it struck terrorist cells of Jaish al-Adl, a U.S.-designated terrorist group fighting against the Iranian regime, which Iran alleges has a haven in Pakistan. Iran also implied that the group has links to Israel. Jaish al-Adl has been carrying out attacks on Iranian security forces, and Iran sees them as a threat to its stability.
Iran has long complained about Jaish al-Adl enjoying a haven in Pakistan with alleged help from external actors. However, Iran had not previously conducted cross-border raids into Pakistan and had not indicated an intent to undertake such strikes. The Iranian logic behind the pre-emptive strike against Jaish al-Adl in response to the group’s attack on a police station in Rask, Iran, is not fully explained.
There are various factors that may contribute to Iran’s logic. Iran has had a negative perception of Pakistan due to its strong relations with geopolitical forces opposed to Iran, such as the United States and Gulf powers like the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. Iran has also had a closer relationship with Pakistan’s arch rival, India, which has led to suspicions of Iran supporting anti-Pakistan ethno-nationalist groups. The recent attacks may be seen as a way for Iran to showcase its strength and deterrence, as well as to address internal and external pressures. However, the exact reasoning and strategic calculations behind Iran’s logic in conducting these attacks on Pakistan remain complex and may involve a combination of political, security, and regional dynamics.
Gregory Brew, an analyst at Eurasia Group, an international risk consultancy, said Tehran’s strikes were motivated in large part by Iran’s rising concerns about the threat of domestic militant violence in the wake of a deadly Jan. 3 bombing claimed by the ISIS group. “There’s a lot of domestic pressure to ‘do something,’ and the leadership is responding to that pressure,” he said. Spokespeople for the Iranian and Pakistani foreign ministries could not immediately be reached for comment as reported by Asharq Al-Awasat. Pakistan expressed its willingness to work with Iran on “all issues” in a call between their foreign ministers on Friday after both countries exchanged drone and missile strikes on militant bases on each other’s territory. “Foreign Minister Jilani expressed Pakistan’s readiness to work with Iran on all issues based on spirit of mutual trust and cooperation,” the statement said. “He underscored the need for closer cooperation on security issues.” Read more: Atlantic Council & Reuters
Monday
PTI banks on social media to make up for ‘bat’ loss
After losing its electoral symbol, PTI plans to utilize social media and a candidate portal for outreach in the upcoming elections. The portal will feature PTI-backed candidates and their symbols, while online campaigns and door-to-door efforts will be used to connect with voters. Read more: Dawn
ECP dismisses Senate resolution on poll delay
The Election Commission of Pakistan dismissed the Senate resolution seeking a poll delay due to winter conditions, reaffirming its commitment to holding elections on February 8. Read more: The Express Tribune
JUI-F calls for heightened security measures amid life threats
JUI-F formally expressed concerns to authorities, including the electoral body, about potential terrorist threats to its leadership following the apprehension of two bombers targeting JUI-F chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman and ANP chief Aimal Wali Khan. Read more: Pakistan Today
Pakistan, Iran agree to boost bilateral trade to $5b
Pakistan’s Ambassador to Iran, Mudassar Tipu, conveyed a commitment to boost bilateral trade to $5 billion, emphasizing peace and stability in the region. Read more: Daily Pakistan
Tuesday
PM Kakar meets world leaders on sidelines of WEF Summit
Caretaker PM Anwaarul Haq Kakar discussed climate change with US Envoy John Kerry, strengthening ties with Lebanon’s PM Najib Mikati, and exploring trade with Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremsinghe at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Read more: Pakistan Today
Imran, wife indicted in marriage case
Former PM Imran Khan and his wife Bushra Bibi were indicted in an illegal marriage case, accused of marrying without the mandatory pause. Read more: The Express Tribune
Thousands Of Trucks Stranded As Visa Policy Curbs Trade At Torkham Crossing
About 3,000 trucks were stranded at the Torkham border, the main crossing between Afghanistan and Pakistan, due to recently imposed visa restrictions on truck drivers, halting border trade and causing financial losses. Read more: Voice PK
UAE likely to rollover $2bn Pakistan debt for one year
The UAE is expected to roll over a $2 billion loan to Pakistan for another year to help the country facing economic challenges. Pakistan will pay 3% interest on $1 billion and 6.5% interest on the other billion dollars if the rollover is approved. Read more: Daily Pakistan
Wednesday
Iran launches air attacks in Pakistan, leaving ties between two sides in tailspin
An Iranian drone and missile strike on targets in the Panjgur district of Balochistan, which Tehran described as bases for the militant group Jaish al-Adl, killed two “innocent children” and injured three girls, according to the Foreign Office in Islamabad. Read more: Daily Pakistan
Pakistan warns of ‘consequences’ after Iranian incursion
Pakistan has condemned the attack as an “unprovoked violation” of its airspace, warning Iran of serious consequences and emphasising the importance of good neighbourly relations and coordinated counter-terrorism efforts. Pakistan also decided to recall its ambassador to Iran and suspend all high-level visits between the two countries. Read more: The Express Tribune
Three children among 9 wounded in Quetta blast
A blast on Quetta’s Zarghoon Road injured nine people, including three children, as explosive material planted in trash near Sajid Hospital detonated. Caretaker Minister of Human Rights Khalil George condemned the attack, vowing justice for the perpetrators. Read more: The Nation
PM Kakar Appreciates Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation’s Ongoing Collaboration With Pakistan
Caretaker Prime Minister Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar commended the ongoing collaboration between Pakistan and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, particularly in public health, social initiatives, and financial inclusion. In a meeting with Bill Gates at the World Economic Forum, they discussed social support initiatives, emphasizing the importance of building on existing gains and expanding efforts nationwide. Read more: Urdu Point
Thursday
Rude awakening for Iran
Pakistan conducted precision military strikes in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchistan province against hideouts used by terrorists responsible for recent attacks in Pakistan. The operation, named ‘Marg Bar Sarmachar,’ targeted the Balochistan Liberation Army and the Balochistan Liberation Front. Read more: The Express Tribune
US slams Iran for air strikes in Pakistan that killed children
The United States condemned Iran’s air strikes in Pakistan, labeling Iran as a leading funder of terrorism causing regional instability. Pakistan, in response, conducts precision strikes against terrorist hideouts in Iran, leading to heightened tensions. Read more: Daily Pakistan
China says willing to mediate between Pakistan and Iran
China expressed willingness to mediate between Pakistan and Iran after the recent exchange of fire in their border region. The Chinese foreign ministry hopes for calm and restraint, offering to play a constructive role in de-escalating the situation if both sides agree. Read more: Business Recorder
PM cuts short Davos visit, summons National Security Committee moot following strikes in Iran
Caretaker Prime Minister Kakar cut his Davos visit short, convening a National Security Committee meeting amid rising tension with Iran. Read more: Pakistan Today
Friday
Pakistan, Iran agree to work together to ‘de-escalate’ situation
Pakistan and Iran have agreed to de-escalate tensions and strengthen counter-terrorism cooperation. The National Security Committee in Pakistan held an emergency meeting where they established plans to co-operate with Iran and discusses future measures. Read more: Pakistan Today
IHC reserves verdict on Imran’s pleas against jail trials
The Islamabad High Court reserved its verdict on the admissibility of petitions against the jail trial of Imran Khan in the Toshakhana and £190 million NAB references. The PTI counsel argued that the trial process was invalid, citing issues with the notification, appointment of the judge, and the initiation of the trial before the reference was filed. Read more: Daily Times
Security agency issues threat alert for Baloch protestors in Islamabad
Intelligence agencies issued a threat alert for Baloch protestors in Islamabad due to a fluid security situation at the Pakistan-Iran border. The Deputy Commissioner urged heightened security measures to protect protestors from potential threats by anti-state elements and hostile intelligence agencies. Read more: Hum News
Exporters urge govt to resume trade via Chaman
Balochistan exporters called on the government to reopen trade at the Chaman border with Afghanistan, which has been suspended for over three months, causing substantial economic losses. They proposed declaring Chaman a dry port and establishing a free trade zone to attract investment and stimulate trade operations in the region. Read more: Dawn
Weekend News
‘Pakistan, China stand together to safeguard common interests’
Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong affirmed Pakistan-China unity in safeguarding shared interests and continued support against terrorism at the inauguration of a CPEC library symbolized the long-lasting strategic partnership initiated in 2015. Read more: Daily Times
China-Pak companies sign new energy order worth $43 million
Pakistan’s MaxPower and China’s CHISAGE ESS inked a $43 million deal for over 300,000 inverters. The agreement spans low-voltage single-phase, three-phase hybrid inverters, and potential collaboration on battery packs and grid-tie inverters. Read more: Pakistan Today
Repatriation of Afghan nationals continues
The repatriation of ‘illegal’ foreign nationals, including 634 Afghan individuals yesterday, continues. To date, 472,187 Afghans have been repatriated to their homeland. Read more: Radio Pakistan
Education Ministry reveals 2.62 million children out of schools in Pakistan
Pakistan’s Education Ministry has reported that 2.62 million children were out of school in the 2021-2022 academic year. Punjab topped the list with 1.17 million, signaling a slight improvement from 44% in 2016-2017 to 39%. However, deeper issues persist, particularly at the intermediate level, where 60% of students lack access to education. Read more: Pakistan Today
Analysis: Iran’s Missile Attack on Pakistan Was Meant to Send a Message to the Whole Region
By Zvi Bar’el, Published in Haaretz
Iran’s recent missile strike on Pakistan is seen as a strategic message to the region, signaling its readiness to respond militarily to protect key assets. The retaliation follows an attack by an anti-Iranian separatist group in Pakistan. The action is analyzed in the context of regional tensions, ISIS threats, and Iran’s approach to domestic and external challenges, reflecting its commitment to maintaining a strong deterrent presence in the face of potential threats to its allies. Read more: Haaretz
Fact of the Week!!!
Bangladesh De/Cypher
22 Jan, 2024
Monday
PM pays homage to Armed Forces martyrs at Shikha Anirban
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina paid respects to Bangladesh Armed Forces martyrs at Shikha Anirban, laying a wreath and observing a guard of honour. The solemn ceremony honored those who sacrificed their lives during the 1971 Liberation War. Read more: Daily Ittefaq
Statement on polls: UN rights body overstepped its mandate, Dhaka says
Bangladesh rebuffed UN rights body’s claim of election violence, asserting the day was peaceful and accused the OHCHR of bias and misrepresentation, stating it overstepped its mandate. Read more: The Business Standard
Parties in parliament second lowest since 1991
Bangladesh’s 12th parliament sees the second-lowest representation of political parties since 1991, with only five parties, raising concerns about democratic diversity. Read more: The Daily Star
2023 inflation hits 12yr-high
Bangladesh faces a 12-year high average inflation of 9.48% in 2023, with December’s monthly inflation at 9.41%. Analysts highlight insufficient government measures and the powerful influence of market syndicates as contributing factors. Read more: New Age
Tuesday
EU, NDI, IRI teams ask EC about vote cast rate
EU and US teams, monitoring Bangladesh’s 12th parliamentary polls, question the Election Commission about the voter turnout rate in the January 7 elections. Read more: The Daily Star
EU allocates €300,000 in humanitarian aid to gutted Cox’s Bazar Rohingya camps
The European Union released €300,000 in humanitarian aid to assist Rohingya refugees affected by a recent fire in Cox’s Bazar, focusing on urgent needs like shelter and water. Read more: Prothom Alo
Bangladesh to prioritise intel-sharing with India to combat transnational crimes: Home minister
Bangladesh’s Home Minister emphasized enhanced intelligence-sharing with India to combat transnational crimes, border issues, and organized crimes. Read more: The Business Standard
Helpline 333 to be launched for price complaints
Bangladesh will introduce a helpline, 333 for citizens to report overpriced products, promoting consumer empowerment and transparency in commodity pricing. Read more: New Age
Wednesday
Mirza Fakhrul, Khasru get bail in violence cases
BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir and leader Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury granted bail in October 2023 violence cases. The charges relate to incidents during the BNP’s October 28 rally in Dhaka. Read more: New Age
EU eyes step change in relations with Bangladesh: Whiteley
EU Ambassador Charles Whiteley envisions a significant shift in relations with Bangladesh over the next five years, highlighting the upcoming Partnership and Cooperation Agreement as a pivotal driver. Read more: The Business Post
Discussed advancement of Bangladesh-US relations: Peter Haas
US Ambassador Peter Haas anticipates strengthening Bangladesh-US ties, focusing on security, defense, trade, Rohingya crisis, and climate change. Read more: Prothom Alo
Under your leadership, Bangladesh made extraordinary progress: ADB president to PM Hasina
ADB President Masatsugu Asakawa congratulates Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on her fourth consecutive term, commending Bangladesh’s remarkable progress under her leadership in the last 15 years. Read more: The Business Standard
Thursday
Foreign Minister Hasan Mahmud to visit Delhi Feb 7
Foreign Minister Hasan Mahmud will visit New Delhi on February 7 to bolster Bangladesh-India relations, marking his first bilateral trip. Read more: The Business Post
Russia proposes wheat export to Bangladesh
Russian Ambassador Alexander Mantytskyi expressed interest in exporting wheat to Bangladesh during discussions with Food Minister Sadhan Chandra Majumder. Read more: New Age
Four factors may subdue growth, fuel inflation: BB
Bangladesh Bank’s annual report highlights potential challenges to growth, including high inflation, exchange rate pressures, and high non-performing loans. It emphasizes the need for increased investment and notes the impact of completed mega government projects on the country’s economic activities. Read more: The Financial Express
49 percent of country’s water contains cancer germs: Study
Almost half of Bangladesh’s drinking water contains dangerously high levels of arsenic, reaching 45 times the WHO limit in some samples, according to a study. Read more: The Daily Ittefaq
Friday
8 more countries greet Sheikh Hasina on re-election
World leaders, including those from the UAE, Qatar, Egypt, Luxemburg, Turkey, Singapore, Malaysia, and Brazil, congratulated PM Sheikh Hasina on her fourth consecutive term. Read more: The Daily Star
Ministers blast Transparency International Bangladesh (TIB) findings on JS polls
Ministers sharply criticized TIB’s findings on the January 7 election, labeling them biased and supportive of the opposition BNP. AL Ministers dismissed the TIB as BNP agents and questioned their motives. Read more: New Age
PM’s principal secretary urges China, IFC to boost investments
PM’s Principal Secretary urged increased investments from China and IFC in Bangladesh, and thanked China for its role in development while seeking IFC’s support for the National Logistics Development Policy. Read more: The Business Post
COVID-19 sub-variant case detected
Bangladesh reported its first case of COVID-19 sub-variant JN.1 in five individuals, classified as a “variant of interest” by the WHO. Read more: The Bangladesh Post
Weekend News
Foreign Minister calls for peace, support to Palestine, Rohingya repatriation
At the 19th Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) Summit, Foreign Minister Dr Hasan Mahmud advocated for peaceful dispute resolution, emphasized Bangladesh’s support for Palestine, and discussed Rohingya repatriation with counterparts. Read more: Dhaka Tribune
FM holds bilateral talks with India, five other countries
Foreign Minister Hasan Mahmud held talks with India, Nepal, Botswana, Belarus, Qatar, and Indonesia during the 19th NAM Summit in Uganda, addressing mutual interests and strengthening relations. Read more: New Age
Opposition won’t leave streets until democracy is restored: BNP
BNP’s Dr Abdul Moyeen Khan asserted that the opposition will persist on the streets until democracy is restored in Bangladesh, emphasizing the importance of democratic governance. Read more: The Daily Sun
Bangladesh records 18 new dengue cases, 2 deaths in a day
Bangladesh reported 18 new dengue cases and two fatalities within a day, as per the Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS). This year, 13 deaths and 821 infections were recorded, with 298 cases in Dhaka and 523 elsewhere. Read more: Bangla News 24
Fact of the Week!!!
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