Hasina Secures A Record Fifth-Term, US Intelligence Blames ISIS-K for Iran Blasts, Houthis Disrupt Global Commerce.

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Af Pak and Bangladesh Decypher 8 Jan 2024
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Bangladesh National Election 2024 Announcement:

Sheikh Hasina wins fourth straight term as Bangladesh Prime Minister

In the recent national elections held on Sunday, Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina secured her re-election for a fifth term. The election took place despite the boycott by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), led by former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, who is presently incarcerated. It’s noteworthy that this election recorded the second lowest voter turnout since the restoration of democracy in 1991.

The vote count is still ongoing

Key Points from election:

  1. Bangladesh’s recent general elections saw Awami League, led by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, securing its fourth consecutive term.
  2. This marks Sheikh Hasina’s fifth overall term as the country’s prime minister.
  3. Following the election results, Hasina instructed her party members not to organise victory processions.
  4. The opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), led by former PM Khaleda Zia, boycotted the elections, citing anti-national activities.
  5. BNP’s boycott was a result of Hasina’s refusal to step down for a neutral caretaker government.
  6. The 2024 elections witnessed a low voter turnout, attributed to boycotts against the incumbent government.
  7. Awami League reportedly won 216 out of 299 seats, with independent candidates securing 52 seats and Jatiya Party winning 11 seats.
  8. Election day remained relatively calm, but pre-election protests included 18 reported cases of arson, resulting in four deaths.
  9. Authorities attributed much of the violence to the BNP, accusing it of attempting to sabotage the election.

World Media Reaction to Bangladesh General Election 2024

Several international media outlets have reported on the recent parliamentary elections in Bangladesh, describing them as “predictable” and highlighting the absence of opposition. Here are some quotes from different newspapers around the world:

Data Dive – Decypher

Ship movement around the world: The orange dots are ships that have changed their route and are now going through the southern tip of Africa due to unrest created by the Houthi rebels in the Red Sea.

Source: Mapbox

Asia Headlines: Quick Recap

Maldives Suspends 3 Ministers For Racist, Anti-Modi Tirade; Indians Fume, #BoycottMaldives Trends

Three deputy ministers in Maldives have been suspended for making disparaging remarks on PM Modi and India on social media. Indian tourists are cancelling hotel and flight bookings in Maldives following the incident, with the largest number of tourists being from India. Hashtags #BoycottMaldives and #ExploreIndianIslands gained traction on social media, with Indians cancelling trips to Maldives and praising Indian islands as alternatives. Maldives Minister of Foreign Affairs Moosa Zameer said that these remarks against foreign leaders are “unacceptable” and do not reflect the official position of the Maldives government.(Ground)

Japanese prosecutors make their first arrest in the fundraising scandal sweeping the ruling party

Tokyo District Public Prosecutors Office said in a statement it apprehended former vice-education minister Yoshitaka Ikeda on suspicion of failing to report fundraising proceeds he received from his faction within the governing Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).Mr Ikeda’s faction, which used to be led by the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe who was assassinated in 2022, has remained the largest and most influential within Mr Kishida’s ruling party.The faction is suspected of failing to report more than 600 million yen ($6.19 million). (Nikkei Asia)

US intelligence confirms Islamic State’s Afghanistan branch behind Iran blasts

Communications intercepts collected by the United States confirmed that Islamic State’s (ISIS-Khorasan) Afghanistan-based branch carried out twin bombings in Iran that killed nearly 100 people, two sources familiar with the intelligence told Reuters on Friday. “The intelligence is clear-cut and indisputable that ISIS-Khorasan carried out the bombings” one source said. (Reuters)

China steps up Myanmar contacts on border stability, phone scams

China’s Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong (left) and Myanmar’s junta leader Min Aung Hlaing (right); Source: STR/AFP via Getty Images and The Week

Senior Chinese officials have held talks with Myanmar, the government said on Saturday, as Beijing grows increasingly concerned about border security and telecoms scams with rebel groups pressing their campaign against Myanmar’s junta. China’s Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong visited Myanmar from Thursday to Saturday, meeting junta leader Min Aung Hlaing to discuss topics including border stability and the crackdown on the scams, China’s foreign ministry said.(Reuters)

Iraq plans to ‘end presence’ of US-led coalition forces, PM says

The Iraqi government is beginning the process of removing the US-led international military coalition, Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani’s office said on Friday.The US has about 2,500 troops in Iraq and 900 in Syria on a mission it claims advises and assists local forces trying to prevent a resurgence of ISIS, which in 2014 seized large parts of both countries before being defeated. (The National)

Iran arrests 11 suspects over bomb blasts, mourners demand revenge – state TV

Iranian emergency personnel work at the site where two explosions struck a crowd in the southern Iranian city of Kerman on Wednesday. Photo: Sare Tajalli/AFP/Getty Images

Iranian authorities said on Friday that security forces had arrested 11 people suspected of involvement in two bomb blasts that killed nearly 100 people at a memorial service for a slain military commander. The Islamic State militant group has claimed responsibility for the attacks in Kerman, southeastern Iran, on Wednesday. (Reuters)

Qatar tells hostages’ families that getting deal harder after Hamas leader’s killing

Qatari Prime Minister Mohammad al-Thani said, in a meeting with representatives of the hostages’ families, the killing of the senior Hamas official, Saleh al-Arouri, has made it difficult to advance a deal to release the hostages. However, he said talks are continuing. (Axios)

Thousands Protest Across Israel Calling for Elections and Netanyahu’s Dismissal

Thousands of Israelis protested on Saturday night in Tel Aviv, Haifa and near Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s private residence in Caesarea, calling for early elections and the Knesset’s dissolution. Gali Basudo, who was evacuated from her home in the city of Sderot next to the border with Gaza, said at the Tel Aviv rally: “I love the city very much, but I have something to say to the government that is calling us to return home. We are told that we are already used to Qassams [rockets], but when a round of shooting starts – everything comes to a halt. There’s no school, no people on the street, and the train station is shut down. For years, ourlives have been cheap.” (Haaretz)

When Predatory Sparrow Strikes: Israel-Iran Shadow War Awakens

The cyber attack that caused two thirds of Iran’s gas stations to suddenly stop working last week is the most significant escalation post-October 7th of aggressions in the shadow war long taking place between Israel and Iran. In the second time in as many years, a group of ‘pro-Israel’ hackers calling themselves Predatory Sparrow managed to knock out Iranian petrol stations. The group seems to focus almost exclusively on Iranian targets, and its aim seems to be to cause real damage to Iran’s infrastructure. (Haaretz)

China enacts patriotic education law

China has enacted a new “Patriotic Education Law,” incorporating love for the country and the Communist Party into work and study for all, aiming to enhance national unity and consolidate power. This law expands President Xi’s efforts to deepen the Party’s presence in public and private life, and may be a means to promote nationalism and ensure social stability. The legislation mandates patriotic education at all grades and institutions, integrates it into school subjects, and uses cultural establishments to inspire patriotism. (Ground)

Bangladesh De/Cypher

8 Jan, 2024

Voter Turnout in Bangladesh General Election 2024:

Bangladesh sees low voter turnout in national election boycotted by opposition

Election Day Events & News

Congratulations pour in from envoys as AL wins national polls

Ambassadors from India, Russia, China, and others congratulated PM Sheikh Hasina for Awami League’s victory in Bangladesh’s national elections, expressing commitment to ongoing cooperation. China’s Ambassador Yao Wen reaffirmed support, emphasizing strong bilateral ties and mutual development. Read more: The Business Standard

CEC terms election free, fair

Chief Election Commissioner Kazi Habibul Awal declared Bangladesh’s 12th general election free and fair, noting no severe violence but addressing reported irregularities. Read more: New Age

Observer from US calls election ‘free and fair’, says ‘low turnout’ is a ‘misnomer’

Jim Bates, a US election observer, declared Bangladesh’s 12th National Parliamentary Election “free and fair,” dismissing concerns about low turnout as a “misnomer.” Read more: Daily Sun

Voter turnout in urban areas lower than in rural areas

In Rajshahi’s 12th general election, rural areas had a higher voter turnout than urban areas, averaging about 46.82% in the district. Read more: New Age

25 candidates boycott polls citing irregularities

Twenty-five candidates boycotted the 12th national election, citing irregularities, while the EC nullified the candidature of Mustafizur Rahman Chowdhury. A total of 1,970 candidates contested 299 parliamentary seats, including 1,534 from 28 parties and 436 independents. Read more: Somoy News

AL’s partner parties lost 4 out of 6 seats despite running with boat symbol

Members of the 14-party alliance, led by Awami League, faced defeats in four of six constituencies where they ran with the boat symbol. AL’s partners like Bangladesh Workers Party and Jatiya Samajtantrik Dal also experienced mixed results. Read more: The Business Standard

EC orders arrest of Awami League candidate’s son for ‘vote rigging’ in Narsingdi-4

The Election Commission has issued an arrest order for the son of Awami League candidate Nurul Majid Mahmud Humayun in Narsingdi-4 over allegations of irregularities, specifically ballot stuffing. Read more: Dhaka Tribune

No vote cast in 21 polling centres in Khagrachari, Rangamati

In the 12th general election in Bangladesh, 21 polling centers in Khagrachari and Rangamati districts recorded no votes cast. Read more: New Age

Supporters of AL, independent candidates clash near polling centre in last hour

In the Dhaka-5 constituency, supporters of Awami League (AL) and independent candidate Moshiur Rahman Molla Sajal clashed near a polling center in Jatrabari during the last hour of voting. Read more: New Age

BNP men try to bar voters, clash with cops in Ctg

In Chattogram, a clash erupted between police and BNP activists in the Chandgaon area, as BNP members reportedly attempted to prevent voters from casting their votes during the 12th parliamentary election. Read more: Business Post

PM casts ballot, confident about winning election

Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina called for citizens to vote in a conducive environment, expressing gratitude for the successful election amid obstacles. She criticised the BNP-Jamaat alliance for violence, affirmed confidence in a fair election, and emphasised the continuity of Bangladesh’s democratic trend since 2009. Read more: The Daily Star

700 RAB patrol teams deployed across Bangladesh

Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) deployed 700 patrol teams across Bangladesh for the 12th national election, ensuring security and collaboration with other agencies. Read more: New Age

Bangladesh poll booths burn on election eve, as train arson kills four

Bangladesh witnessed pre-election chaos with arson attacks on polling booths, a fatal train fire, and school assaults. Read more: Reuters

 

Decypher Analysis

The ensuing sentiment analysis scrutinises the perspectives of various global news publications and think tanks regarding the capacity of the ruling Awami League (AL) to conduct impartial and unrestrained elections in anticipation of the electoral event in the 2024 national election in Bangladesh.

Decypher Opinion

What lies ahead for Bangladesh’s economy?

In 2023, Bangladesh faced severe macroeconomic challenges, marked by a decline in key economic indicators. Despite being a success story in macroeconomic stability until 2019, the country’s economic resilience was tested by the Covid-19 pandemic, with a lasting impact observed in 2020 and 2021. The war in Ukraine further aggravated the situation, resulting in persistent macroeconomic instability.

Several economic facets were affected, including a rise in the monthly average inflation rate from 7.6% in 2022 to 9.5% in 2023. Export earnings and formal remittance growth showed sluggish growth, while the official exchange rate depreciated by 30%, and foreign exchange reserves plummeted from over $30 billion to less than $20 billion.

The crisis exposed deep-rooted structural issues such as poor tax revenue performance, a fragile banking sector, ineffective public expenditure management, unsuitable trade and industrial policies, low foreign direct investment (FDI), inadequate spending on health and education, and weak institutions. Ill-advised policies, including fixed interest rates and artificially maintained exchange rates, worsened the situation.

Efforts to address the problems were inadequate, with slow adjustments in interest rates, continued banking sector weaknesses, and a wide gap between official and market exchange rates. The challenges extend to the mounting obligations of repaying foreign loans for mega projects, requiring a boost in exports and attracting substantial FDI.

Reforms in the taxation sector, an independent central bank, and effective implementation of policies outlined in critical documents are crucial for economic recovery. Strong economic leadership, supported by political will, is imperative to navigate through this crisis and implement necessary reforms. Read more: The Daily Star

Fact of the Week!!!


Af-Pak De/Cypher

8 Jan, 2024

Top Stories from Pakistan

36 projects completed so far under CPEC: Senate informed

Caretaker Minister Muhammad Sami Saeed stated that 36 CPEC projects worth $24 billion have been completed, with 22 projects under construction and negotiations ongoing for 26 projects valued at $27 billion. Read more: The Nation

Over 0.5m illegal immigrants repatriated, Senate told

Over 500,000 illegal immigrants, primarily Afghans, have been repatriated in Pakistan out of approximately 1.7 million residing without proper documentation. Read more: The Express Tribune

Suicide bomber, three terrorists gunned down in North Waziristan IBO

In an intelligence-based operation in North Waziristan, Pakistan security forces killed four terrorists, including a suicide bomber. The terrorists, involved in various anti-security activities, were planning a high-profile attack, thwarted by the proactive response of security forces. Read more: The News International

No case of new Covid variant found in Pakistan yet: health minister

Caretaker Health Minister Dr. Nadeem Jan stated Pakistan has not reported the JN.1 Omicron variant yet but is on high alert. The government is procuring 500,000 Pfizer vaccine doses to address the emerging threat. Read more: Dawn

Pakistan, India exchange inmates lists

Pakistan and India exchanged lists of prisoners, including 231 Indians in Pakistani custody and 418 Pakistanis in Indian jails, under the Consular Access Agreement. Both nations are urged to release those who completed sentences, with additional requests for consular access and special access to specific prisoners. Read more: Daily Pakistan

Pakistan looks to boost ‘momentum’ gained in bilateral ties with US

Interim Foreign Minister Jalil Abbas Jilani urged building on recent exchanges and momentum in bilateral ties during a meeting with US Ambassador Donald Blome, discussing key issues including diplomatic engagement and Afghan resettlement. Read more: ARY News

Pakistan steps up surveillance in Arabian Sea

Pakistan has intensified naval and aerial surveillance in the Arabian Sea after recent security incidents, aiming to protect international shipping lanes disrupted by piracy and geopolitical tensions in the region. Read more: Dawn

Elections 2024: PML-N, Q likely to strike seat adjustment deal

PML-N and PML-Q are poised to agree on seat adjustments for the upcoming elections, with PML-Q seeking four National Assembly and eight provincial assembly seats. Read more: Daily Times

Imran Khan, Bushra Bibi to be Indicted in Alleged Illegal Nikah Case on Jan 10

Imran Khan and Bushra Bibi are set to be indicted on January 10 in the alleged illegal Nikah case, involving accusations of violating Sharia laws and marrying within the “iddat period” post-divorce. Read more: Khyber News

Copper exports to China cross $1b

Pakistan’s copper exports to China surpassed $1 billion in the first 11 months of 2023, showing a 9% increase. The country seeks more Chinese investment to enhance manufacturing capabilities and meet global demand for refined copper products. Read more: The Express Tribune

Sesame export to China registers 117.85pc increase

Pakistan experienced a significant surge of 117.85% in sesame seed exports to China in 2023, reaching $250 million from January to November. The growth reflects Pakistan’s emergence as a major player in the global sesame seed market. Read more: Business Recorder

Anti Narcotics Force (ANF) seized 618 metric tons drugs worth billions in 2023

In 2023, ANF conducted 1900 operations, seizing 618 metric tons of drugs worth billions and arresting 1860 individuals, including 64 foreign nationals. Over 15 thousand awareness events were held, and ANF participated in 32 international counter-narcotics events. Read more: Pakistan Today

Video

The Last Wakhi Shepherdesses of Pakistan

Three of the last Wakhi shepherdesses: Sakina (left), Thai Bibi (centre) and Annar (right)

The BBC 100 Women series casts a spotlight on the Wakhi shepherdesses’ dwindling profession, a cornerstone of the local economy in Pakistan’s highlands. Their labour-intensive pastoralism has facilitated significant capital accumulation, funding public goods such as education and healthcare – critical pillars for development. Their contribution has enabled infrastructure advancements, notably the road connecting Shimshal Valley to broader markets. Yet, as globalization introduces new economic paths, these shepherdesses symbolize a critical juncture: the wane of agrarian economies facing modern transitional forces. The next generation diverges, seeking alternative livelihoods and signalling a profound economic and cultural shift within the Wakhi populace. Watch here: BBC

 

Fact of the week!!!


We invite you to the ASIA Sensemaker with Amb. Dr. Raghavan and Prof. Amogh Rai, Research Director at Asia!!

Here is the link

Thank you for Reading!!!

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We are pleased to bring to you the new edition of the Decypher Journal. Decypher was started keeping in mind, the critical role that informed discourse plays in shaping our understanding of Asia’s evolving landscape. Our Journal is conceived as a bridge, linking local insights from Asia with a global audience keen on nuanced perspectives.
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We are pleased to bring to you the new edition of the Decypher Journal. Decypher was started keeping in mind, the critical role that informed discourse plays in shaping our understanding of Asia’s evolving landscape. Our Journal is conceived as a bridge, linking local insights from Asia with a global audience keen on nuanced perspectives.
Decypher Journal: (Em)Powered? Authority in a Fragmented World
Privacy Overview

This website uses cookies so that we can provide you with the best user experience possible. Cookie information is stored in your browser and performs functions such as recognising you when you return to our website and helping our team to understand which sections of the website you find most interesting and useful.