De/Cypher Data Dive 📈
The Business Ready (B-READY) Index by the World Bank assesses the business environment and investment climate across various economies. There are 3 pillars and each of these pillars is evaluated across 10 topics that follow the lifecycle of a business, such as Business Entry, Business Location, Utility Services, Labor, Financial Services, International Trade, Taxation, and Dispute Resolution.
Asia View🌏
The fall of Hasina: Can Bangladesh rise again?
Written by Prof Amogh Dev Rai, Research Director at Advanced Study Institute of Asia & Aurko Chakrabarti, Applied Geopolitical Researcher
Sheikh Hasina along with her sister sought political asylum in India after the assassination of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, their father, and the father of newly independent Bangladesh. Nearly half a century later she finds herself back in India.
How has Hasina found herself in this position? Did college students rise up in protest and unite across the country in defiance of an autocratic leader? Nuance should be afforded to any conversation surrounding the protests across Bangladesh which saw hundreds lose their life and continues till now.
Sheikh Hasina’s Return to Power in 2009
After serving her first term between 1996-2001, Sheikh Hasina’s return to power in January 2009 on the back of a promise to remove corruption within the government and revitalise the economy. The path to the premiership was mired by intense political turmoil. A crisis of confidence in the outgoing Bangladesh National Party’s (BNP) ability to hold free and fair elections led to the formation of a caretaker government in January 2007. The Awami League (AL) had questioned the impartiality of the caretaker government as some of its members had ties with the BNP. A state of emergency was imposed soon after due to the spread of protests against the caretaker government across the country, which had taken a violent turn, similar to what was seen in the recent 2024 Quota reform protests. Eventually, elections were held in December 2008, under the watchful eye of major western powers. Hasina emerged victorious and the change in leadership was welcomed both by the Bangladeshi public and by western observers.
Under the leadership of Hasina, Bangladesh emerged as a beacon of prosperity and their economic transformation was hailed as an example for other developing countries to follow. Bangladesh had risen in several development metrics, such as HDI, life expectancy, poverty reduction, even leading its regional partners in per capita income. She improved Bangladesh’s standing on the international stage, through various peacekeeping missions and her advocation in the fight against climate change. Bangladesh had reached a point of stability but her distrust for certain institutional elements remained.
Controversies During her Reign
She decided to abolish the caretaker government system in 2011 as she was concerned about its effectiveness in operating as an independent entity. The following general election held in January 2014 was boycotted by the opposition, BNP, as a result of this. Many seats in parliament remained uncontested and the AL won a landslide victory. This arrangement continued across the next decade, with the BNP, refusing to contest in the 2018 and 2024 general elections. During this time period, many of the BNP’s members were jailed for various crimes related to corruption and criminal violence, with opposition leader Khaleda Zia arrested in February 2018. Public opinion had also begin to shift, both on the domestic and international front. The AL was hit with many of the same allegations that they had levied against the previous government. They were accused of abusing their use of the state apparatus by having opposition members locked up, misallocating climate-funds, and exerting too much control over the Bangladeshi public. Sheikh Hasina maintained that her government had and would always act in the best intentions of its citizens but the increasing repression of the media or anyone who questioned the government created a climate of fear. This was exacerbated by her use of the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB), an elite anti-terrorism unit of the police force, which did not need to follow the conventional letter of the law. There was a rise in forced disappearances and claims of the use of torture on journalists and other ordinary citizens. Hasina implored media houses to publish positive stories and not criticise the government as it would only do more harm than good.
International Attention During the 2024 General Election
Criticism only seemed to grow and there seemed to be an immense amount of pressure put on her government during the 2024 general election process. There was a pervasive nature to the criticism which she faced from foreign entities, which bordered on interference. The message was clear, the caretaker government should be re-established to allow free and fair elections to take place. Sheikh Hasina refused to accept the terms and conditions put forth by foreign countries and re-iterated her commitment to holding elections without dissolving the current government. The United States was majorly responsible for a lot of the pressure being exerted on AL government, with their Ambassador to Bangladesh, Peter Haas, voicing concern throughout the entire election cycle. Russia claimed that the U.S. would try to create an ‘Arab-Spring’ like situation in Bangladesh after the election to destabilise the country. Foreign Ministry spokesperson MV Zakharova said, “Unfortunately, there is little chance that Washington will come to its senses and refrain from yet another gross interference in the internal affairs of a sovereign state”. The veracity of these claims is hard to quantify in terms of fallout but it would not be particularly difficult to believe given the U.S.’ past involvement in conflicts across the globe. This year alone there have been claims made that the U.S. had unsuccessfully attempted to stage a coup in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. But what would the U.S. gain from ousting the Hasina led government in South Asia?
Sheikh Hasina’s resignation letter
Hasina had wanted to address the nation before her sudden resignation from office but could not as the dangers of the protest were close to reaching her doorstep. According to her undelivered speech letter, she believes there was a concerted effort to remove her from power with the U.S. at the centre of it. Her reasons for their involvement centred around her refusal to give up sovereignty of St. Martins Island and allow the U.S. to hold sway over the Bay of Bengal. It is difficult to determine in the present, how much of this could be true, if any, but she had also made similar claims in the run-up to the election, stating that the U.S.’ intent was to carve out a Christian nation from Bangladesh and Myanmar. She also implored the citizens of Bangladesh to not let radical elements destabilise the country.
Post Hasina Turmoil and The Entry of Muhammad Yunus
Hasina’s resignation from power has not brought a sense of calm and stability to Bangladesh as it was hoped, instead the nation has capitulated into a state of complete disarray. The violent protests have now turned evolved into targeted violence against minority communities in the country and any individual associated with the AL. The Bangladesh Hindu Buddhist Christian Oikya Parishad reported 205 incidents of persecution of members of minority communities across 52 districts since Sheikh Hasina’s resignation on August 5. Members of the AL and their associates have also been targeted and forced to flee or go into hiding to avoid persecution. Demands have been made for Sheikh Hasina to return to Bangladesh and face trial, while various members of the government and judiciary have been pressured into stepping down.
The new Chief Advisor of the interim government, Mohammad Yunus, has called for peace and an end to the violence across the country, deeming the acts of violence against minorities, as ‘heinous’. He also alluded to the fact that these might be acts of ‘sabotage’ undertaken by people looking to ‘undermine the success’ of the student movement. His remarks do not seem to have eased the tensions within the country, and worldwide protests calling for an end to to the persecution of Bangladeshi Hindus have gained momentum across the world in countries like U.S., Canada, UK, and more. Hindus in Bangladesh have also taken to the streets in large numbers to demand support from the interim government. It is imperative that Yunus takes control of the situation so that Bangladesh can return to a state or normalcy, and then begin to rebuild.
Given the vast amount of Chinese wealth invested in the Bangladeshi ecosystem through the Belt and Road Initiative, it will be interesting to see if Yunus continues to accept Chinese influence or will he pivot towards the U.S. and other western powers. His close personal ties with the democratic elite in the U.S. are unlikely to sway this decision, as Yunus has long held a dream for making social and financial equality a reality in Bangladesh. Yunus is now 84 years old, older than either of Bangladesh’s previous leaders, and comes in at a turning point in the history of the country. The BNP has called for elections to be held within the next three months but there has been no timeline set. Until then, it is up to Yunus to steady the ship and chart the course ahead.
The Bangladesh of 2024 is beset by woe on all sides. The economic miracle has all but disappeared for those on the bottom of the pyramid. The stability of the regime will take a few years to establish, and on the other side you have a fiercely divided country which is working very hard to maintain its cosmopolitan nature. The story is far from over.
Af-Pak De/Cypher
Economy
Pakistan’s overseas investors’ chamber reports $22.6 billion contribution to economy in 10 years
Naimat Khan for Arab News reports that the Overseas Investors Chamber of Commerce and Industry (OICCI), the representative body of over 200 foreign investors in Pakistan, announced on Tuesday its members had contributed $22.6 billion to the national economy over the last ten years, underscoring their commitment to and confidence in the country’s future growth. Amid prolonged financial challenges, the Pakistani government has intensified efforts to attract foreign investment, particularly from the Middle East, China and Central Asia, to bolster its economy. In June, Pakistan secured a $7 billion staff-level agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to help stabilize its economic situation.
Govt mulls imposing price equalisation levy to sustain gas sector
Khaleeq Kiani reports for Dawn that the Pakistani government is considering a mechanism to impose a price equalisation levy, or surcharge, on wellhead gas to cross-subsidise protected residential consumers and industrial sectors, with an aim to relieve a Rs10-15 billion burden from the federal budget on account of annual subsidies enjoyed by the sector. The initiative is part of petroleum sector reforms under the Integrated Energy Plan, driven by the Prime Minister’s Office in collaboration with international lending agencies, to transform the country’s inefficient gas companies to self-sustaining and profitable entities, ultimately paving the way for their privatisation.
TotalEnergies to sell 50% stake in Pakistan oil marketing firm to Gunvor Group
Arab News reports that French oil major TotalEnergies has agreed to sell its 50% stake in oil marketing company Total PARCO Pakistan Limited to global commodities trader Gunvor Group, TotalEnergies said in a statement on Tuesday. A joint venture between Total Energies and Pak-Arab Refinery Limited in Pakistan, Total PARCO Pakistan limited has a retail network of more than 800 service stations and is involved in fuel logistics and lubricants. TotalEnergies said the transaction, which is subject to regulatory approvals, reflects its selective strategy in Marketing & Services to focus on “core geographies with growth and transitioning opportunities.”
PM Shehbaz to unveil new economic plan on August 14 to drive liberalisation
Mubarak Zeb Khan reports for Dawn that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif will unveil an economic plan on August 14, which will focus on devising the main principles for real-time export-led growth and removing decade-old economic bottlenecks. The plan was crafted by a task force constituted by the premier, later joined by Professor of Economic Policy at the University of Oxford Stefan Dercon over the past two months. The local team collated the facts and shared them with the professor to create a consensus document. The document’s main focus is on economic liberalisation, eliminating the government’s involvement in providing subsidies to any sector and exposing local producers to worldwide competition. There will be no restrictions on imports to manage the current account deficit; instead, the focus will be on increasing exports from the country.
Business and trade picking up in Pakistan, claims commerce minister
Dawn reports that business and trade is picking up in Pakistan. Memorandums of understanding (MoU) worth $107 million were redeemed while MoUs worth $434m were signed on the first day of FoodAg at Karachi Expo Centre, federal Commerce Minister Jam Kamal Khan said on Saturday. Almost 800 delegates and 350 Pakistani companies have taken part in the extravaganza. Around 75 countries are represented in the FoodAg event. He said even though agriculture is the backbone of the country’s economy, its full potential has yet to be realised. The event caters for small and medium-sized agricultural businesses from far-flung areas of the country, he added.
Internal Politics
In a first, women engineers set up 24 kW solar system in Pakistan
The Express Tribune reports that five exceptional engineers, trained at NED University, became the first women to participate in a solar energy creation project. The engineers have successfully installed a 24-kilowatt solar system on the roof of Karachi’s Hussaini Orphanage for the first time in Pakistan’s history. With hands-on support from KfW DEG Impuls and Develop, five exceptional Ladies Fund engineers—Areeba Rashid, Iman Batool, Farhan Anjum, Muskan Iqbal, and Rahemeen Haider Ali—completed the installation, becoming the first women in Pakistan’s history to be paid for solar roof work. They are now recognized as official installers for Ladies Fund Energy.
Pakistan and the world
Pakistan says it will support all efforts to prevent Middle East escalation
Charlotte Greenfield reports for Reuters that Pakistan would support all efforts to prevent war escalating in the Middle East, its foreign ministry said on Friday, as fears grow of a wider conflict involving Israel and Iran. The Middle East is bracing for a possible new wave of attacks by Iran and its allies following last week’s killing of senior members of militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah. Tehran has blamed the death of Hamas’s political leader on Iranian soil on Israel, which has not confirmed involvement.
Attack on Pakistani army posts leave 3 soldiers and 4 insurgents dead
Associate Press reports that Militants attacked three army posts in northwest Pakistan on the border with Afghanistan on Friday, triggering intense shootouts that killed three soldiers and four insurgents, the military said. The attacks happened in the Tirah Valley in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, the military said in a statement. It said a search operation was underway in the area to eliminate any other insurgents and security forces were “determined to wipe out the menace of terrorism.” The military gave no further details, but a breakaway faction of the Pakistani Taliban in a statement claimed responsibility for the attacks. The Gul Bahadur group is based in Afghanistan, authorities say.
Interior Minister Naqvi meets Turkish ambassador, announces free online visas for turks
The Express Tribune reports that Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi met with Turkish Ambassador Dr Mehmet Pacaci at the Ministry of Interior on Friday, where they discussed Pakistan-Turkey bilateral relations and matters of mutual interest in detail. During the meeting, both sides agreed to enhance cooperation in the fields of security, police, and civil armed forces. It was also decided that Pakistani police officers will be sent to Turkey for training as part of an exchange programme aimed at strengthening ties between the two nations’ law enforcement agencies. Naqvi announced that starting from 14 August, Turkish citizens will be able to obtain free online visas to Pakistan. He noted that this initiative will facilitate easier travel for Turkish nationals and further deepen the bonds between the two countries.
Afghanistan Update
Acting Interior Minister Reaffirms Commitment to General Amnesty Decree
Tolo News reports that Khalifa Sirajuddin Haqqani, the acting Minister of Interior, stated during visits to the provinces of Paktia and Paktika that the general amnesty decree in the country has not been violated and that there is no evidence to suggest otherwise. Haqqani also emphasized that since the re-establishment of the Islamic Emirate, many hostilities between ethnic groups in the country have turned into friendships.
Efforts Ongoing for Release of Americans in Afghanistan
Tolo news reports that the US special envoy for Afghanistan Thomas West said there are continued efforts to secure the release of three American citizens held by the Afghan interim government. West added that Ryan Corbett and Mahmood Habibi were arrested in Afghanistan two years ago. Efforts are underway for George Glezmann and the other two Americans to be brought back home.
UN warns IS Afghanistan branch growing in strength
Dawn reports that a UN counter-terrorism official warned on Thursday that the Afghanistan branch of the militant Islamic State group (IS) poses the greatest external terrorist threat to Europe as it boosts its organisational strength. ISIL-K, or IS-K, is an acronym for the group’s branch in Afghanistan, known as Islamic State Khorasan Province. The group claimed a March attack on a music hall in Moscow, which left 145 people dead. The risk of the Afghanistan branch carrying out terrorist attacks abroad has “become manifest,” Vladimir Voronkov, undersecretary-general for counter-terrorism said, noting the group has also intensified its recruitment efforts.
Bangladesh De/Cypher
Internal Politics
Ousted Bangladeshi PM blames US for her removal from power
Sanjay Kumar writes for Arab News that Bangladesh’s ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who is currently taking refuge in India, has accused the US of playing a role in her removal from power as she promised a prompt return to Dhaka. Hasina was forced to resign and fled to neighbouring India on Aug. 5, following weeks of nationwide demonstrations and a deadly crackdown on protesters, which emboldened a student-led movement to oust her regime after 15 years of uninterrupted rule. The 76-year-old said Washington was to blame for her ouster in a message issued for supporters of her Awami League party, which appears to be her first statement since she left Dhaka.
Hasina will return to Bangladesh the moment elections are announced: Joy
The Daily Star reports that Sheikh Hasina will come back to Bangladesh as soon as the interim government decides to hold an election, said the former prime minister’s son Sajeeb Wazed Joy in an interview with Times of India yesterday. Sheikh Hasina resigned as prime minister and fled Bangladesh on August 5, when a student-led protest culminated in a mass uprising against her Awami League government. More than 400 people were killed in the preceding three weeks, a majority of them in police firing and firing by Awami League activists. Joy’s statements came after Khaleda Zia’s son Tarique Rahman, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party’s acting chairman, is returning to Dhaka following his exile from Bangladesh.
Interim leader Yunus takes helm in Bangladesh, to seek peace and prepare elections
AP reports that Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus has taken the oath of his office as the head of Bangladesh’s interim government, after an uprising forced former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to step down and flee to India. The key tasks for Yunus now are restoring peace in Bangladesh and preparing for new elections following weeks of violence in which student activists led an uprising against what was considered Hasina’s increasingly autocratic 15-year rule.
Prof Yunus acquitted in graft case
The Daily Star reported that Nobel Laureate Prof Muhammad Yunus has been acquitted in a graft case filed by the Anti-Corruption Commission (ACC) four days after his acquittal in the case filed for labour law violations. The development came three days after the interim government led by Prof Yunus took oath after the resignation and departure of former prime minister Sheikh Hasina amid a mass upsurge led by students on August 5. Prof Yunus is now the chief adviser of the interim government, while Nurjahan Begum is its adviser. Nurjahan was also an accused in the graft case.
Disinformation being spread about attack on minorities in Bangladesh
Prothom Alo reports that disinformation and fake videos are being spread about attacks on the Hindu community in Bangladesh. The online fact check and media research platform dismislab says, the matter of the Nobogroho temple being set on fire is not true. It says that a Facebook user reported that this video was propaganda. He was contacted and he said there was no attack on Nobograha temple located on the banks of Chattogram’s Laldighi. There had been an attack near the temple on the Chattogram south district Awami League office. The person sent a picture of the unharmed temple. Caretaker of the temple Swapan Das confirmed that it was unharmed. While attacks have taken place in Bangladesh on minority communities, the numbers have been hugely exaggerated on social media platforms like X.
Economy
Bangladesh chief justice, central bank chief quit amid protests
Maksud Un Nabi reports for Reuters that Bangladesh’s chief justice and central bank governor have resigned, officials said on Saturday, as student protests that forced Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to flee have widened to target more officials appointed during her time in office. Chief Justice Obaidul Hassan resigned, the law ministry’s adviser Asif Nazrul said in a Facebook video post, after students warned him of “dire consequences” if he did not. Days earlier, four deputy governors were forced to resign after about 300 to 400 bank officials protested against what they said was corruption by top officials.
Troubled Bangladesh’s economy bogged down by high unemployment, inflation
Reuters reports that the student protests that forced Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to quit and flee the country were also fuelled by tough economic conditions in what was once the world’s fastest growing economy. The central bank held rates at 8.5% in July, after raising them twice earlier this year. Inflation stood at 9.72% in June and the central bank aims to bring it to 6.5% by fiscal 2025. The country’s GDP rose to 6.1% in the Jan-March quarter, according to data released in July. However, IMF concluded a second review in June, giving the country immediate access to about $928 million in loans for economic support and about $220 million to combat climate change. In the report, IMF said it expects economic growth to be at 5.4% in the fiscal year 2024, higher than 4.8% recorded in the first half.
Businesses hit by drought of cash supply
The Daily Star reports that businesses in Bangladesh, especially those that mostly deal with cash transactions, yesterday said they are contending with a liquidity crunch as the country’s central bank has placed a limit on daily cash withdrawals from banks. On Saturday, banks were told to disallow daily cash withdrawals of more than Taka 2 lakh per account. The banking regulator had limited daily cash withdrawals to Taka 1 lakh per account from last Thursday before deciding to raise the ceiling. The central bank took the decision due to security concerns as police are yet to return to work fully after attacks on around 450 police stations following the uprising that led to the fall of former prime minister Sheikh Hasina.
Rest of World
- Shubhangi Palve reports for Eurasian Times that as Turkey progresses with developing its own indigenous multi-layered air defense system without the S-400 Triumf that it purchased from Russia, a well-known former Turkish minister suggested in an interview that the most prudent option for Ankara would be to sell off these contentious air defense systems. In a recent development, Turkey announced plans for a cutting-edge, domestically developed multi-layered air defense system dubbed the ‘Steel Dome.’ In a surprising twist, the $2.5 billion Russian S-400 missile system (the S-400 Triumf is a mobile surface-to-air missile system developed in the 1990s by Russia’s NPO Almaz) has been excluded from this new ambitious initiative.
- Shoon Naing, Poppy Mcpherson and Devjyot Ghoshal report for Reuters that drone attack on Rohingya fleeing Myanmar killed many dozens of people, including families with children, several witnesses said, describing survivors wandering between piles of bodies to identify dead and injured relatives. Four witnesses, activists and a diplomat described drone attacks on Monday that struck down families waiting to cross the border into neighbouring Bangladesh. A heavily pregnant woman and her 2-year-old daughter were among the victims in the attack, the single deadliest known assault on civilians in Rakhine state during recent weeks of fighting between junta troops and rebels.
- Panu Wongcha-um and Panarat Thepgumpanat report for Reuters that Thailand’s disbanded opposition Move Forward unveiled a new political vehicle on Friday that will be the biggest party in parliament, promising to advance reforms and a controversial plan to amend a law that protects the monarchy from criticism. The anti-establishment Move Forward, which won most seats in the last election but was blocked from forming a government, was dissolved by the Constitutional Court on Wednesday, which ruled its campaign to reform a law on royal insults risked undermining the constitutional monarchy.
