Asia View
Bangladeshi democracy in the shadow of Sheikh Hasina
Written By Aurko Chakrabarti, Applied Geopolitical Researcher
The inspiration drawn from Bangladesh’s “success story” largely found its roots in Sheikh Hasina’s positioning as a pivotal leader, whose second premiership in 2009, in particular, transformed the country’s socioeconomic landscape. Never in her 14 years as the country’s leader has her authority/intention been questioned in the same way that it is now, especially on the international stage. Her carefully cultivated image, built on perceived qualities of patriotism, empathy, and inclusivity, appears to have slowly cracked under the weight of her own people.
The culmination of these event has now led to a complete disconnect between Sheikh Hasina and the Bangladesh army who have called for her resignation. Unconfirmed reports suggest that she has already given up control behind the scenes, which has allowed her to leave in a dignified manner. Her final request to address the nation has been denied for public safety reasons. Sheikh Hasina has allegedly landed in Agartala, Tripura to seek safe refuge, but the path forward for Bangladesh seems unsure for now.
Her resignation should likely bring a sense of calm and relief, as recent protests in Bangladesh over the last month have become marked by the death of hundreds of civilians and the mass destruction of public property.
The removal of Sheikh Hasina after fifteen years in power will likely create a power vacuum which will be filled by the Army for now, but has this chain of events set up the inevitable comeback of the BNP and their leader Khaleda Zia? Only time will tell, but what is absolutely certain is the mandate of the Bangladeshi people, that democracy should be upheld to the highest of standards, regardless of who will come to power.
The army chief in his address to the nation after consultation with opposition leaders in the Bangladesh National Party (BNP), stated that the Army would form the Interim Government for now. There are also unconfirmed reports of Sheikh Hasina’s official residence being broken into and ransacked.
De/Cypher Data Dive 📈
The protests in Bangladesh started out against quotas — primarily against the 30 percent of government jobs reserved for descendants of people who found in Bangladesh’s 1971 war of independence. The Bangladesh Supreme Court significantly shrunk the quotas, but the students have released a list of demands, focused on seeking justice for their comrades killed in the violence. (Aljazeera)
Af-Pak De/Cypher
Economy
Pakistan’s finance ministry forecasts July inflation of 12% to 13%
Charlotte Greenfield and Asif Shahzad reports for Reuters that Pakistan’s finance ministry expects inflation in July to range between 12% and 13%, easing further in August to stand between 11.0% and 12.0%, it said in a monthly economic outlook released on Tuesday. The central bank, which lowered rates this week for the second time in a row as previously rising inflation was moderated, will be closely monitoring inflation readings that the statistics agency is expected to announce on Thursday.
SIFC initiatives fuel massive surge in Pakistan’s exports
The Express Tribune reports that Pakistan achieved a remarkable boost in its exports during the fiscal year 2023-2024, driven by the efforts of the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC), according to data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). The country’s export of goods soared by 10.54%, reaching $30.64 billion, compared to the previous year. While exports increased, imports saw a slight decrease of 0.84%, dropping from $55.19 billion to $54.73 billion, a positive sign for economic growth.
Internal Affairs
Karachi flooded and powerless after heavy rain
The Express Tribune reports that heavy rain in Karachi has resulted in flooding on roads and power outages across several areas, causing significant inconvenience to residents. The continuous downpour since Sunday evening has affected more than 300 feeders, plunging the city of lights into darkness and waterlogged streets. The rain began at 8pm on Sunday and has been ongoing intermittently, leading to traffic jams as water accumulates on the roads.
Punjab reports first polio case in four years
Ikram Junaidi reports for Dawn that Punjab has reported its first polio case in four years. This marked a significant setback in the province’s fight against the crippling disease. The last reported case in Punjab was in 2020. An official from the Regional Reference Laboratory for Polio Eradication, located in the National Institute of Health (NIH), confirmed that the latest victim is a six-year-old male child from the Chakwal district. Overall, it is the 12th reported case in Pakistan this year. Previously, nine polio cases were reported in Balochistan and two in Sindh.
Imran Khan: It would be ‘foolish’ not to have good relations with army
Asif Shahzad reports for Reuters Pakistan’s jailed former prime minister, Imran Khan, who blames the military for his ouster and 12-month-old imprisonment on what he calls trumped-up charges, said on Sunday it would be “foolish” not to have “excellent” relations with the army. Reported by his legal and media teams, Khan stated that given Pakistan’s geographical position and the military’s major engagement in the private sector and it would be irresponsible not to nurture such a partnership. Since his removal, Khan claimed that his comments had been aimed at specific people rather than the military as a whole.
As Forbes ranks Karachi ‘second riskiest’ city for tourists, some residents can’t help but agree
Naimat Khan reports for Arab News that Karachi is ranked as the second-riskiest city for tourists. According to data from the police, 72 people were killed in street crimes in the first half of this year. Karachi’s newly appointed police chief blames “media overhype” for the city’s negative image. Karachi, a metropolis of 20 million that hosts the stock exchange and central bank, has for decades been beset by armed violence. While an armed campaign led by the military against gangs and suspected militants in the city brought down crime rates after 2013, violence and crime rates have been on the rise again since last year, with shooting deaths in muggings and robberies once again becoming a daily headline.
Secret Pakistani Program Directs Military Officers to Attack Social Media Critics and “Digital Terrorists”
Murtaza Hussain and Ryan Grim write for Dropsite that Pakistan’s military leadership has secretly enlisted thousands of serving officers in an online campaign against judges, activists, and journalists it views as political enemies. The program, known as the “Army Agahi Network,” or Army Awareness Network (AAN), directs groups of military field officers to create fake social media accounts to proliferate pro-military messages and level defamatory accusations and threats against critics of the army, members of Pakistan’s civil society and judiciary, and supporters of deposed former prime minister Imran Khan and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party (PTI).
Pakistan and the world
What China is doing for Pakistan, US cannot do: PM
Khalid Hasnain writes for Dawn that Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said on Sunday that whatever China was doing for Pakistan, the United States could not, and reiterated that relations with Washington should be repaired, but not at the cost of ties with Beijing. Speaking on the occasion, PM Shehbaz said that work was progressing fast on the second phase of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), and during the visit of Chinese experts to Pakistan, there was positive movement on the promotion of cooperation in different fields.
Afghanistan Update
Afghanistan to Boost Industry with Land Distribution, Industrial Parks
Tolo News reports that the Afghanistan Chamber of Industry and Mines (ACIM) said that land will soon be distributed to the country’s industrialists. Officials in this chamber added that the only way to achieve self-sufficiency in the country is to support domestic production and provide more facilities for industrialists. The Ministry of Industry and Commerce said that there are currently 16 industrial parks operating in various provinces of the country, and 26 more industrial parks are planned to be established in the future.
Pentagon chief revokes plea deals with three Sept. 11 suspects
Reuters reports that U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Friday revoked plea deals agreed to earlier this week with the man accused of masterminding the Sept. 11 attacks, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, and two accomplices, who are held at the U.S. military prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. The Pentagon said on Wednesday the plea deals had been entered into but did not elaborate on details. A U.S. official said they almost certainly involved guilty pleas in exchange for taking the death penalty off the table.
Shadows of the Robes
Written by Hira Maroof, Published in Express Tribune
Summarised by Priyanka Garodia, Geopolitical Research Analyst – South Asia
The politicisation of the Supreme Court in Pakistan has reached its pinnacle with ad-hoc appointments of judges to the apex body of the judiciary. Pakistan ranks 130th among 142 countries on the World Justice Project Rule of Law Index, highlighting judicial ineffectiveness. One of the primary reasons for this politicisation is judicial overreach and the interference of outside forces in the affairs of the judiciary. Judicial populism and the use of the judiciary as a body to serve the interests of the elite factions of society have led to a polarization among intellectuals on differences and limits placed on the transparency of judicial matters, hindering the rule of law and democratic building. The pending cases before the Supreme Court are intensifying tensions within the institution, with a 3.9% increase in 2023. The lack of procedural grounds and effective implementation is halting the overall process. The professionalism that is required to maintain a strong judiciary is largely absent in the Pakistani judiciary, where important figures like the Chief Justice often display committed behavior and can be swayed easily by external forces. All of this has led to a crisis of Rule of Law in the country, exacerbating economic problems and instability.
Bangladesh De/Cypher
5 August, 2024
Timeline of Events in Bangladesh Protests (July-August 2024)
News stories collected from The Daily Star; Summarised by De/Cypher Team
Background: The recent surge in anti-government protests in Bangladesh is the result of student-led demonstrations calling for the reform of the quota system for government jobs. Initially peaceful, these protests have erupted into widespread violence, resulting in numerous deaths and injuries. The government, led by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, has responded with tough measures such as curfews and internet shutdowns, accusing opposition parties of inciting the unrest. This timeline includes key events from the ongoing conflict.
July 31, 2024
‘Remembering Our Heroes’: Quota protesters announce fresh programme
The Antidiscrimination Student Movement announces a program to commemorate the victims of the quota reform protest violence. The event, “Remembering Our Heroes,” will take place both online and offline, with a variety of remembrance activities and a call for a thorough investigation into the killings. The protesters also demand the resignations of several ministers.
August 1, 2024
The European Union postpones negotiations on a new Partnership and Cooperation Agreement with Bangladesh due to the current situation and the violence surrounding the quota reform protests. Josep Borrell, the EU High Representative, condemns the “shoot Onsight policy” and calls for an investigation into the killings.
As part of their “March for Justice” program, several hundred students hold a peaceful demonstration on the grounds of Chattogram Court, demanding their nine-point agenda. Despite the increased police presence, no disruptions occur.
The government bans Jamaat Islami, its student wing Islami Chhatra Shibir, and all of its front organisations under the Antiterrorism Act of 2009, citing their involvement in recent killings and terrorist activities.
August 2, 2024
22 US senators, Congressmen write to Blinken on ‘worsening human rights conditions in Bangladesh’
Twenty-two US senators and Congress members express concern to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken about Bangladesh’s deteriorating democracy and human rights situation. They criticize the Bangladeshi government’s violent crackdown on student protests and flawed national elections, calling for international action to support democratic principles and human rights in Bangladesh.
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina accuses Jamaat Shibir and the BNP of manipulating student protests to cover up violence. The government encourages students and parents to stay at home and guarantees strict punishment against militant attackers. The Italian ambassador expresses condolences and praises the prime minister’s handling of the turmoil.
August 3, 2024
As a result of clashes between ruling party activists and police and anti-government protesters, at least 93 people may have died and others injured. The violence, which has expanded to at least 20 districts, prompts a state-wide curfew and 4G internet blockade. The dead toll from three weeks of protests has surpassed 300.
The Antidiscrimination Student Movement announces a 15-point program to promote their non-cooperation movement, which includes tax refusal, boycotting government activities, and suspending public transport. They seek Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s resignation.
Residences and offices of Education Minister Mohibul Hassan Chowdhoury Nowfel, Mayor Rezaul Karim, and MP Md Mohiuddin Bachchu are attacked by alleged miscreants during a student procession, despite claims that the attackers were not students.
Ongoing protest: Nat’l Committee on Security Affairs to hold meeting tomorrow
The National Committee on Security Affairs, chaired by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, is scheduled to meet amid continued student protests. This is the first gathering since November 2023 to address national security concerns following recent violence.
August 4, 2024
The Supreme Court administration announces the closure of all courts, including the Appellate and High Court Divisions, until further notice. Magistrates will handle urgent cases, while Chief Justice Obaidul Hassan will deal with urgent court concerns.
The Bangladesh Army requests public cooperation with the indefinite curfew, which will take effect at 6:00 p.m. on August 3, to maintain peace and order. The army’s mandate is to provide public security and protect critical state infrastructure.
At least 19 districts have seen attacks on the homes of ministers and MPs, including Sheikh Helal, Sheikh Salauddin Jewel, and Social Welfare Minister Dipu Moni. Several AL offices and companies have also been vandalised.
Clashes between ruling party activists and demonstrators erupt at Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib Medical University, igniting 24 vehicles and generating considerable alarm among patients and personnel.
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina urges residents to oppose those promoting violence, describing student demonstrators as criminals. The government remains open to talks, but warns of tough law enforcement against more violence.
‘One point demand’: Protesters call for ‘March to Dhaka’ today
The anti-discrimination student movement continues its “March to Dhaka” campaign to demand Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s resignation. Protesters gather in Shahbagh, promising to resist and continue sit-ins until the government falls.
The government declares a three-day general holiday beginning August 5 to ensure public safety in the face of ongoing protests. This measure seeks to address escalating unrest caused by the student-led non-cooperation movement.
Economic Losses in Bangladesh Due to Protests and Unrest
Stories collected from The Business Post; Summarised by De/Cypher Team
Bangladesh is facing substantial economic losses due to recent protests and unrest, significantly impacting various sectors. The July 2024 remittance drop, internet blackouts affecting freelancing and BPO industries, and widespread destruction in Narayanganj are notable examples of the ongoing crisis.
Bangladesh received $1.9 billion in remittances in July 2024, a 24.87% decline from the $2.51 billion in June. The decrease followed the unrest and violence linked to the quota reform protests. Remittances, which are crucial for Bangladesh’s economy, have been affected by the instability, reflecting broader economic repercussions.
Impact on Freelancing and BPO Sectors
The freelancing and Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) sectors have suffered losses exceeding Taka 400 crore due to the internet blackout imposed during the protests. This disruption has severely hindered operations, leading to significant financial setbacks and loss of client trust. Surveys indicate that over 50% of BPO businesses had to lay off more than 70% of their workforce, highlighting the profound impact on employment and revenue. The Bangladesh Association of Contact Center & Outsourcing (BACCO) anticipates further losses, potentially escalating to Taka 1,000 crore in the next six months.
Hasan Arif reports in The Business Post that the Narayanganj district incurred Taka 200 crore in losses due to vandalism and arson during the quota reform movement. The destruction of the regional passport office alone resulted in the loss of 8,000 passports and property damage amounting to Taka 3.27 crore. Several government and private establishments, including banks, clinics, and garment factories, were also targeted, causing widespread disruption and financial loss.
The cumulative effect of these disruptions is severe. State Minister Zunaid Ahmed Palak noted that the telecom and ICT sectors alone suffered a Taka 18,000 crore loss, severely affecting the country’s digital economy. The unrest has not only led to immediate financial losses but has also raised concerns about long-term economic stability and investor confidence.
The ongoing instability poses a significant challenge for Bangladesh, undermining economic growth and development across multiple sectors. Addressing these issues requires comprehensive policy measures to restore stability and rebuild trust in the country’s economic infrastructure.
Rest of World
- On Saturday, August 3, To Lam, the president of Vietnam, was appointed general secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, the highest position in the country, taking over for the late Nguyen Phu Trong, who passed away two weeks prior. (CNA)
- The Philippine and Japanese navies conducted their first joint exercise in the South China Sea on Friday, as the two US allies strengthen security ties in the face of China’s increasing pressure. (SCMP)
- North Korea marked the delivery of 250 nuclear-capable missile launchers to frontline military units with a ceremony in which leader Kim Jong Un vowed to continue expanding his military’s nuclear program to counter perceived US threats, state media reported Monday. (AP)
- Jordan’s foreign minister met with Iran’s acting foreign minister in Tehran on Sunday as the US and its Arab allies try to avoid a wider war following the killings of top Iran-allied militants, which sparked vows of vengeance against Israel. (AP)
- Haaretz chose not to publish an advertisement titled “Joint Declaration,” which was signed by more than 200 individuals. The advertisement encouraged Israelis to reflect on their role in the country’s current situation and accept responsibility for past mistakes. Haaretz rejected the ad, claiming that it failed to hold right-wing parties and leaders accountable for undermining democracy and imposing an apartheid regime on Palestinians. (Haaretz)
- Topix, Japan’s key stock index, fell 12.2% on Monday, the most since 1987, and dropped 24% below the record high set a month ago, to a level last seen in October last year. (Bloomberg)
