Written By Priyanka Garodia, Geopolitical Research Analyst – South Asia
China’s nuclear programme was started in the 1950’s with the help of Soviet technology and assistance. The break in Sino-Soviet relations did not deter the Chinese ambition to obtain nuclear power, and China tested its first weapon in 1964 independently. The nuclear triad—ground-based intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched missiles, and air-launched nuclear weapons—make up the PRC’s nuclear arsenal.
China’s Nuclear Arsenal
With over 500 nuclear heads presently, China is presumed to have one of the fastest-growing nuclear programmes in the world. According to The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, China has produced a stockpile of about 440 nuclear warheads that can be delivered by bombers, sea-based ballistic missiles, and land-based ballistic missiles. In order to eventually equip more road-mobile and silo-based missiles and bombers, an estimated 60 more warheads have been produced, with more in production. The Pentagon suggests that China would likely be in possession of roughly 1000 nuclear warheads by 2030. These numbers are ambitious estimates given the hush-hush nature of China’s nuclear programme and the stringent measures ensured by the Chinese state to maintain secrecy around its actual warheads. The development of China’s nuclear arsenal has been subject scrutiny by multiple scholars. To understand the rationale behind the pile of weapons, a brief understanding of China’s nuclear doctrine is needed.
China’s Nuclear Doctrine
China’s experience with nuclear weapons has been overshadowed by Cold War politics, in which China was left weak and humiliated by nuclear threats stemming from the US-Soviet rivalry. The development of its arsenal has been to ensure that it does not face similar humiliation in recent times. China maintains a “No First Use” (NFU) policy and has displayed pragmatism and prudence when it comes to nuclear aggression. However, this NFU stance should not be taken for granted. On a direct threat to national security, especially aiming at the destruction of its nuclear power, China is assumed to be ready to adopt a ‘launch-on warning’ or ‘launch-on-threat’ posture. This rests on the future of the great power rivalry characteristic of the global order presently.
The Rationale
The recent military buildup is indicative of a dramatic shift in the Chinese state’s priorities over the past few years. There are two main arguments: one that claims regional dominance in the area and views China’s nuclear buildup as a calculated strategic move to gain military advantages over the US in what seems to be a clear security dilemma. The other, however, focuses on political leadership as the primary driver of this accumulation. It stands for Xi Jinping’s desire to see China remain strong in all areas. Three arguments can be discerned from these debates:
- Firstly, China and the United States have seen a considerable deterioration in their relationship in recent times. Chinese nuclear warheads are being stocked as a deterrent against a potential US attack, and this is frequently referred to as a security conundrum. Its nuclear programme then emerges as a strategic counterbalance to potential American aggression in the security dilemma with the USA.
- Secondly, the nuclear arsenal that China develops can lead to an increase in its regional clout in the Indo-Pacific. This will give it the ability to exert significant influence over the South China Sea situation, its tense relations with Taiwan, and other nations it believes are acting against its national interests.
- The development of China’s nuclear program, including its proliferation to use civil nuclear power plants to enhance weaponry, is evident when one considers the larger picture. These developments are clearly the result of Xi’s personal goals of enhancing China’s military might, projecting China as a credible global power, and achieving a balance of power worldwide.
While it would be difficult to differentiate between one rationale and another, seeing these logics as divorced from one another leads to nothing substantial. The ambitious stance adopted by Xi Jinping to protect Chinese national interest could be seen as a pragmatic response to a difficult geostrategic situation, China finds itself in. What should be of concern to the international community is that China’s nuclear weapons are increasing while the global count of nuclear weapons is decreasing. However, this dismantling is taking place solely because the US and Russia are reducing there weapon stock. The aggression that China displays in nuclear development could possibly set off an international arms race.
