Quick China Facts
China’s Great Caucasus Bet
Captain First Rank (Colonel) Ivan Kovgan, the deputy commander of Russia’s North Fleet submarine forces, was among Russian troops killed during Azerbaijan’s “anti-terrorist” operation on September 20, according to the Club of Navy Submarine Veterans in St. Petersburg. Radio Free Europe has reported, this is another sign of the war in Ukraine weakening the Russian presence and setting Turkiye as an important player in the region, the Chinese have been active since the outbreak of the Ukraine-Russia war in extending the scope of their influence.
For over a decade, Beijing has been building transport routes to Europe that bypass Russian territories. One of these proposed overland routes crosses the Caspian Sea from Kazakhstan to Azerbaijan and onward to Georgia, Turkey and ultimately Europe. This conflict has come right after the Middle East corridor proposed during the G20. This keeps the hope of Belt & Road Initiative alive, and though the problems around this continue to soar there is no doubt that the ultimate Chinese ambition is to have the Caucasus resemble Central Asia, a region with traditional ties to Russia but open to Chinese business and influence.
The ramification of this conflict in the South Caucasus will be immense and will be a source of contrition to newer security alliances being talked about in various security, and diplomacy fora.
Laos Enters The China Aid Debt Camp
The country of Laos’ has found itself in the middle of a debt crisis of its own making, Laos’ public and publicly guaranteed debt stands at 123% of its GDP. Almost half of this debt is owed to China, a country not really known for its large-heartedness to country in its debt, chose to display this in the most grating way possible, a ChinaAid sign came up in front of the Patuxai monument in the capital Vientiane, a monument that honours those who fought for Laos’ independence from France. The people of Laos’ feel that the hard won sovereignty is under the threat of being eroded.
Mariza Cooray of the Lowy institute who is working on modeling on the near term consequences of Laos’ debt trap says in a statement to the Nikkei that “Laos’ debt crisis is a lot bigger than the world realizes, partly because of the incredible level of opacity, and the poor quality of the statistics and information being disseminated”.
The credit rating agencies have lost trust in the Laos’ government to manage the debt and have assigned the riskiest credit rating. Will Hanoi be stepping in to help their neighbors in Vientiane once more? We will be monitoring developments.
Was There Ever A Chinese Demographic Dividend?
An analysis by Dr. Xin Meng of the Australian National University in her new working paper “China’s 40 Years Demographic Dividend and Labor Supply: The Quantity Myth” throws new light on the existence of demographic dividend in China. Her analysis shows that between 1982 and 2015 China’s working-age population, grew from 600m to 1 billion. As a share of the total population of China, it rose from 60% to 73%. But during the same period, labor-force participation dropped from 85% to just over 70%. Much of the decline was caused by mandatory retirement at the age of 55 for women and 65 for men and compulsory education with high university enrolment which kept people under 25 years out of the workforce. Participation for women of childbearing age in workforce also fell, probably because of the increasing cost of childcare. As a result, from 1982 to 2015 China’s labor force as a share of the total population was around 50%. Based on this, Dr Meng argues that the demographic dividend may never have existed in China. The rapid economic growth that China experienced in past 40 years may have been the result of a high-quality workforce than a high quantity of workforce. If this is true, then the current decline in China’s population might not affect its economy. For More details: The Economist.
Innovators and Emulators: China and Russia’s Compounding Influence on Digital Censorship (summary of Asian countries)
Download the report here: https://www.aiddata.org/publications/innovators-and-emulators-china-and-russias-compounding-influence-on-digital-censorship
China and Russia are both notorious for their use of the State apparatus, with legislation and regulatory bodies being used as tools for broad censorship. Their successful use of these tools to control the democratic intentions of the public in their respective countries has influenced the policies of other countries in Asia and around the world.
Turkey has a history of using laws that criminalise “insulting Turkishness” to suppress dissent and criticism of the government. However, as parliament debates changing the definition of citizenship, the number of cases involving this law has decreased in recent years. This suggests that Turkey is moving away from using this law as a tool of censorship. In 2016, Turkey experienced a coup attempt, which resulted in a crackdown on media and free expression. The government restricted access to social media sites and arrested journalists and academics who were critical of the government. According to Twitter Transparency, Turkey has made numerous content removal requests, and the US Department of State’s 2020 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices notes that the Turkish government has continued to restrict freedom of expression, including through the use of anti-terrorism laws. Turkey has put in place a variety of digital censorship tools, such as website blocking, social media account blocking, and VPN blocking. Beyond targeting insults as a form of censorship, the country has a diverse set of tools for digital censorship, including electrical blackouts, the use of online trolls to spread disinformation and personal attacks, and the use of DPI to monitor and filter content.
Azerbaijan approaches digital censorship in a similar manner to China, with ad hoc censorship that is eventually codified into law. The government has institutional support for surveillance, and a law on information, information, and information protection has been amended twice to broaden the definition of “prohibited information.” This broadening of what constitutes “prohibited information” gives Azerbaijan’s regulatory bodies more leeway. Following the 2016 clashes in Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan amended the Law on the Status of the Armed Forces, adding new grounds for censorship and limiting journalists’ ability to report on military matters.
In terms of digital censorship, Azerbaijan has been influenced by both China and Russia. Azerbaijan has put in place a variety of digital censorship tools, such as website blocking, social media account blocking, and VPN blocking. Azerbaijan’s digital censorship practices are similar to those of other countries in the region, such as Turkey and Serbia, both of which have been influenced by China and Russia. The consequences of Azerbaijan’s digital censorship are significant. The report shows that digital censorship is on the rise in the countries included in this study, and Azerbaijan is no exception. The country’s approach to digital censorship is similar to China’s, which has the most sophisticated tools and the most extensive “censorship ecosystem.” Azerbaijan has become a battleground for influence between China, Russia, and the West and it is yet to be seen who will emerge as their closest ally going forward.
