Chinese Influence Operations from Cyber, To Taiwan, Earthquake, Economy, and New Weapons.

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China Decypher 22 Dec 2023
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This research – based newsletter is a digital product from ASIA, a think tank @ SGT University. The board of ASIA is chaired by Prof. Najeeb H Jung. The board includes Prof. Indu Bhushan, Prof. Rajat M Nag, and Prof. Sandhya Vasudevan, and Mr. Manpreet Singh Badal. The data used here is verfied, and sources double checked.

China in Quotes

“Houses are for living in, not for speculation.”
– Xi Jinping, in the aftermath of the real estate crisis in China.

Quick China Fact 🔔🎄

Timeline: News From Asia

Friday

A gold-plated camouflage veil that can make a cruise missile look like a passenger plane on a radar screen could “change the face of war”, according to the team of Chinese scientists behind the design. (South China Morning Post)

A low-cost, lightweight, foldable veil device developed by scientists in China can camouflage a cruise missile to make it look like a Boeing 737 on radar screens. Photo: Northwestern Polytechnical University. Source: SCMP

General CQ Brown, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, held a video call with Chinese General Liu Zhenli, marking the first senior military communication between the US and China since August 2022. (NBC News)

US Air Force Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr. Source: NBC News

Hamas insists on Israel releasing all Palestinian prisoners, including high-level militants, in exchange for the remaining hostages. (The Telegraph)

Tencent, and Netease plunge 6.7%, and 10% as China plans to curb excessive spending the worlds biggest mobile game market. (Moneyweb)

“Tencent’s Chinese counterpart to the blockbuster game ‘PlayerUnknown’s Battlegrounds’ (PUBG), called ‘Game for Peace,’ is displayed on a mobile phone.” Source: Reuters

Thursday

The Kyiv School of Economics (KSE), which monitors Russian oil sales, estimates that Moscow will make $178bn from oil sales this year, rising to a potential $200bn next year. (Aljazeera)

Iraq’s governing Shia alliance has reportedly emerged as the biggest winner in the country’s provincial elections. Winning 101 of 285 council seats.(Aljazeera)

Officials in Kirkuk, Iraq, sort ballot papers at the close of the provincial council elections, Source: US News

Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh has arrived in Cairo for talks on the war in Gaza. There are efforts by Egypt, Qatar, and the US to achieve ceasefire. (Ground)

Imran Khan, the country’s well-known opposition figure, plans to run in upcoming parliamentary elections from prison. (Ground)

Wednesday

Japan’s benchmark bond yield fell to the lowest since August and stocks climbed as traders trimmed bets for a rate hike in coming months. (Bloomberg)

The death toll in China’s worst earthquake in nearly a decade rose to more than 130. (Bloomberg)

Buildings in Jishishan County, located in northwest Gansu province, displayed signs of damage on December 19th, Source: Bloomberg

The Ministry of State Security wants to improve China’s image on the continent, which the CCP still considers to be impenetrable. Its new strategy involves identifying more ‘neutral’ interlocutors to disseminate its narratives in Europe. (Intelligence Online)

Former CIA chief Mike Pompeo, who is now in the private sector, is poised to secure a major financial deal with a fund in UAE spymaster Tahnoon bin Zayed’s financial galaxy. Both men were closely involved in the Abraham Accords in 2020. (Intelligence Online)

Mike Pompeo and Tahnoon bin Zayed in Abu Dhabi, Source: The Peninsula

Tuesday

Tokyo prosecutors raided the headquarters of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party factions, the slush funds scandal has rocked the Japanese government and the disapproval ratings of Premier Kishida are the worst since 1947. (Nikkei Asia)

Malaysia glovemakers see a rise as Covid-19 cases have started jumping in South East Asia. In the week leading from December 3 to 9, the Covid cases are jumping up again in countries around Asia. (Bloomberg)

Glove Factory in Malaysia, Source: Bloomberg

A 6.2 magnitude earthquake has killed more than 100 people in Northwestern China. (dw.com)

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un threatens “more offensive actions” in response to increased U.S.-led military threats after the third test of their advanced missile designed to strike the U.S. Mainland. (AP News)

China and Russia have signed audit and supervision deals to facilitate bilateral capital flows and bond issuance, in a prelude to a two-day annual leader’s meeting to discuss bilateral cooperation against the backdrop of American sanctions. (South China Morning Post)

He Lifeng, Chinese Vice-Premier, and Dmitry Chernyshenko, Russian Deputy Prime Minister, co-chaired the 27th session of the China-Russia government meetings committee in Beijing on Monday, Source: South China Morning Post

Beyond The Great Wall

Exploring News About China in Depth

China Brief: The year in review

James Palmer, in the China Brief for Foreign Policy, describes a China at a crucial juncture, dealing with a range of difficulties and unknowns.

The Earthquake in Gansu and COVID-19’s Resurgence

A severe earthquake in Gansu Province resulted in 120 fatalities and damage. Post-zero-COVID policy, infections surged, but officials declared victory over the virus, with reported deaths far below external estimates. As ongoing health crises fill hospitals, public critique is silenced by censorship and fatigue.

 Struggles of Recovery and Missing Jobs

China’s economic indicators signal distress, with plunging foreign investment, increasing capital outflows, and a notable spike in youth unemployment—enough for the government to withhold data. While the IMF projects over 5% GDP growth based on official data, doubts persist over these figures, casting a shadow on the prospects for new graduates entering a daunting job market.

 Consumer Confidence and the Savings over Spending:

China’s economic woes are partly due to declined consumer spending, crucial for growth. Pandemic aid was scarce, and industry crackdowns have underscored the risks of government intervention. This has dampened economic confidence and, coupled with job losses and an aging population, presents a gloomy economic outlook.

 Property Bubble About to Burst

Chinese savings face jeopardy as the property, constituting 70% of household assets, experiences a slow-motion collapse. Over two decades, property prices outpaced the economy, but now, developers are nearly bankrupt, and the government’s efforts to sustain home prices show limited success. The property bubble, comprising 25-30% of China’s GDP at its peak, extends beyond households, impacting companies and local governments dependent on land sales. The market’s collapse raises concerns about triggering a local government debt crisis.

 

Xi’s Insecurity Hits the Leadership

China, which was previously open to the world, has pulled back from the global stage because to COVID-19 isolation and government-stoked xenophobia, all inside a restricted and suspicious political environment. President Xi has persisted in placing a more focus on national security, as seen by his purges since 2013. The expulsion of officials including as Foreign Minister Qin Gang and Defence Minister Li Shangfu raises issues, highlighting the CCP’s robust control amid internal problems.

Tentative U.S.-China Reconciliation

The world observes as Beijing navigates domestic challenges and its approach to Washington, with fluctuating tensions, a promising Xi-Biden dialogue, and concerns over election interference and maritime disputes raising questions about Sino-U.S. relations. The outcome of China’s choice between diplomacy and assertiveness remains to be seen.

This concludes with a cautious reflection on the multiple fronts where China currently stands on uncertain ground. As China moves forward, the world watches intently to see how it will tackle these challenges and what the consequences will be, both within its borders and beyond.

Read more: Foreign Policy

Decypher Opinion: Meta’s 2023 Crackdown on Chinese Linked Inauthentic Networks

Meta regularly releases reports monitoring adversarial threats. In the first quarter of 2023, they identified and dismantled two campaigns of coordinated inauthentic behaviour from China. One campaign focused on India and Tibet, while another had a more global target, involving fake impersonations and recruitment efforts, leading Facebook to eliminate 50 accounts. Meta’s threat reports for Q2 and Q3 revealed the takedown of a massive international influence operation rooted in Chinese law enforcement. In Q2 alone, this expansive campaign led to removal of 7,704 accounts, 954 pages, and 15 groups from Facebook, with its reach extending over 50 different online platforms including YouTube, Reddit, and TikTok. The Q3 report noted the deletion of an additional 4,789 Facebook accounts for the same infractions. Cumulatively, up to the reported period, Meta has taken down 12,538 accounts linked to China for coordinated inauthentic behaviour.

Designed to amplify China’s geopolitical narratives while undermining Western viewpoints and critics of the Chinese state, the operation targeted regions including Taiwan, the U.S., Australia, the U.K., and Japan. Despite its scope, the campaign struggled with authentic engagement, instead relying on inauthentic followers and broad content dissemination—a brute-force strategy for spreading influence. Flaws such as language inconsistencies and the utilization of outdated content diminished the effectiveness of the campaign. However, the operation’s strategic adaptation to scrutiny and the shift towards smaller platforms hinted at a nuanced understanding of the digital ecosystem and an ability to pivot in the face of resistance.

Meta’s analysis suggests a shift towards more complex, multi-platform strategies, reflecting a growing trend in digital propaganda by state actors. Patterns like posting during Chinese business hours indicated centralized control, while decentralized execution pointed to a systemic, coordinated effort.

 The report comes amid concerns over the withdrawal of U.S. government-provided information to social networking platforms—a practice that ended in July, influenced in part by restrictions imposed by a federal judge on government agencies and officials from discussing “protected speech.” This change effectively stems a key flow of intelligence that once helped companies like Meta preempt and dismantle foreign interference efforts, particularly as the report highlighted past successes in disrupting influence campaigns from Russia, Mexico, and Iran based on government tips.

 Looking forward to the 2024 election cycle, the report acknowledges the persistent threat from foreign covert influence operations, noting the top three sources of coordinated inauthentic behaviour as Russia, Iran, and China. With geopolitical tensions poised to influence U.S. and global elections, Meta anticipates an uptick in state-sponsored influence campaigns, particularly if China’s international relations or the ongoing support for Ukraine become contentious electoral issues.

 The analysis of Meta’s report underscores the escalating complexity of international influence operations, leveraging the vast digital ecosystem for widespread impact. With the end of U.S. government information sharing, the onus is now more significant on tech companies like Meta to detect and counter such operations. As geopolitical tensions rise, the digital arena will undeniably remain a primary front in the struggle against coordinated inauthentic behaviour, with tech companies like Meta being integral to the defense of democratic discourse.

Decypher Lighthouse: China wields Mazu ‘peace goddess’ religion as weapon in Taiwan election

In an effort to influence the upcoming Taiwanese elections, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has strategically increased religious exchanges with Mazu temples in Taiwan, specifically targeting the worship of Mazu, a revered sea goddess. This strategy entails cultivating close relationships with religious leaders and providing subsidised trips in order to sway public opinion in favour of political parties that favour closer ties with China. In response, the Taiwanese government is actively monitoring religious activities, particularly those related to Mazu, in order to counter misinformation and prevent religious beliefs from being manipulated.

Representatives from Mazu temples around the world and individuals from various sectors attend a grand ceremony on Friday commemorating the birth of Mazu, a goddess of the sea, in Putian, Fujian province. Photo: Cai Hao for China Daily

Mazu, a widely worshipped deity in both Taiwan and China, is especially important in cross-strait relations. Due to its historical and cultural ties across the strait, the CCP sees the Mazu faith as a potential “axis” for its influence operations. China frames the upcoming election as a choice between “peace” with pro-China parties and “war” with the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). This narrative is consistent with the views of some religious leaders who advocate for peaceful reunification with China.

Taiwan’s countermeasures include increased religious monitoring, engagement with Taiwanese temples, and consideration of stricter laws to thwart potential influence campaigns. The recent cancellation of China’s Meizhou Pilgrimage to Taiwan highlights the tensions surrounding religious exchanges and their potential politicisation. The United Front Work Department of China, led by Xi Jinping, is central to these influence operations.

Rural temples and smaller religious centres are considered particularly vulnerable to China’s influence due to their close ties to local communities. Both the CCP and the main opposition Kuomintang party in Taiwan employ similar “war or peace” rhetoric in their campaign messaging. Some Taiwanese religious leaders advocate for direct engagement with China to promote peace, while others emphasise the importance of religious neutrality, avoiding political manipulation. Read more: Reuters

China’s Shanghai endures worst cold snap in 40 years

Shanghai is going through its coldest December in 40 years, with temperatures dropping to minus 4 to minus 6 degrees Celsius in the suburbs and staying below zero in the city. The experts at the Shanghai Meteorological Bureau predict that downtown areas will remain freezing for an unusual five days in a row until December 25. This kind of long-lasting cold in December hasn’t happened in four decades. Even in northern provinces of China, it’s super chilly, with temperatures as low as minus 30 degrees Celsius, all because of a strong cold air from Siberia.

 A 2022 study in China investigated the impact of cold weather on health and the economy. Analyzing data from 2013 to 2019 across 280 counties, researchers found that specific cold spells were linked to increased risks of non-accidental, circulatory, and respiratory mortality.

In conclusion, cold spells pose a significant health and economic burden in China. it is essential that efforts to mitigate these risks be prioritized in this region to ensure the safety and well-being of its population. Read more: Reuters

Overview of HTA in China

The paper titled “Health technology assessment to inform decision making in China: progress, challenges, and sustainability” gives an overview of health technology assessment (HTA) development, problems, and sustainability in China.

Health technology assessment to inform decision making in China: progress, challenges, and sustainability written by Yingyao Chen, Kun Zhao, Wen Chen, published in The British Medical Journal in 2021

Summary of the paper

1.  China has integrated health technology assessment (HTA) to decide the prices of medicines. This has led to more research on HTA and its use in making healthcare policies.

2.  The paper emphasizes the importance of use evidence and ethics to make decisions about healthcare to ensure rational decision-making in healthcare.

3.  Challenges highlighted include insufficient HTA staff and expertise, they face difficulties in synthesizing multi-level evidence from multiple sources for decision-making.

4.   The paper emphasizes the need to strengthen the HTA system in China through capacity building, improving data availability and accessibility, and modifying HTA methodologies to meet local needs.

Publications with “health technology assessment” as key word from 1980-2020. 

China has seen an increase in Health Technology Assessment (HTA) related publications over the past 40 years, indicating growing research interest and activity in the field. A total of 96,279 articles by Chinese researchers published in English and Chinese between January 1, 1980, and December 31, 2020, were found using search terms such as economic evaluation, HTA focused ethics research, and meta-analysis. These publications serve as a proxy indicator for gauging the development of HTA in China.

Challenges and Opportunities for Health Technology Assessment in China

In China, HTA faces challenges such as inadequate policy frameworks, limited expertise, and data availability issues. Manufacturer-sponsored studies raise concerns about conflicts of interest. Integrating multidimensional assessments into decision-making and adapting methodologies for traditional Chinese medicine are additional hurdles.

Click here to read more.

China’s 30-Year Yield Hits Lowest Since ‘05 on Deposit Rate Cuts

China’s 30-year-old Yield dropped by 2.84% and is set to be at the lowest level since 2005. This will have a huge impact on the movement of the fixed assets as an investment vehicle. Read more: Bloomberg

China’s Abandoned, Obsolete Electric Cars Are Piling Up in Cities

Behind China’s EV growth of nearly half the car sales being EV by 2026 a decade in advance is a reality that is going to be cautionary tale for every country with EV dreams, what to do with the expired EV batteries with toxic chemicals. The Chinese are recycling the batteries to reach the prized ingredients like lithium, cobalt and nickel that can be extracted and resold. With millions of EVs now ready to be discarded, and thousands already abandoned in graveyards across the nation, there’s a flood of retired batteries waiting to be recycled. Read more: Bloomberg

Xi told Biden during summit that Beijing will reunify Taiwan with China

Chinese President Xi Jinping told President Biden that Taiwan would be reunified with mainland China, with the timing being the only question. The U.S. Has expressed its willingness to defend Taiwan from a Chinese invasion, although the White House later softened its stance. Read more: Ground

Three Arrows Founders’ $1 Billion in Assets Frozen by Court

Some $1 billion in assets belonging to Three Arrows co-founders Su Zhu and Kyle Davies have been frozen by a British Virgin Islands court. Read more: Bloomberg

US Considering Hiking Tariffs on China EVs, Solar Products, WSJ Reports

The US is considering raising tariffs on some Chinese goods, including EVs and solar products, the WSJ reported. The White House and other agencies are planning to complete a review early in the new year. Read more: Bloomberg

US lawmakers urge Antony Blinken to slap sanctions on Hong Kong, Chinese officials for activists’ arrest warrants

US lawmakers have urged Secretary of State Antony Blinken to sanction Hong Kong and Chinese officials involved in the arrest of opposition figures. Read more: South China Morning Post

US Indo-Pacific Commander is ‘very concerned’ about escalation of China-Russia military ties

The US Indo-Pacific Command’s head, Adm. John C. Aquilino, expresses “very concerned” sentiment over heightened military collaboration between China and Russia in the region. Aquilino’s request for talks with his Chinese counterpart is pending. Read more: AP News

China warns Philippines not to ‘miscalculate’ situation in South China Sea — foreign ministry

China has warned the Philippines not to “miscalculate” the South China Sea maritime situation. In a phone call with his Philippine counterpart, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged them to resolve their differences as neighbours. Read more: Arab News

China opens fire on Lockheed for arming up Taiwan

Following the US approval of a $300 million arms deal for Taiwan, China has threatened to sanction Lockheed Martin for the fifth time. The deal involves linking Taiwan’s tactical information system with NATO allies, enhancing its command-and-control capabilities. Read more: Asia Times

China reportedly suspends $6.5bn currency swap agreement with Argentina

According to reports, China has halted a $6.5 billion currency swap agreement with Argentina. Argentina is facing growing economic challenges, including high inflation and debt problems. Read more: Bangkok Post

China Sinochem buys rare Venezuelan oil cargo after U.S. suspends sanctions -sources

Sinochem Corp of China has purchased a rare one million barrels of Venezuelan crude oil for December delivery, taking advantage of the temporary suspension of US sanctions on Venezuela’s oil and gas exports. Read more: Reuters

China’s low-altitude economy set for take-off; vast potential could contribute US$700 billion by 2025

China’s low-altitude economy, which focuses on civil-manned and unmanned aerial vehicles, is poised for significant growth, thanks to government policies that encourage it. By 2025, the sector may contribute between 3 trillion yuan ($422 billion) and 5 trillion yuan ($703 billion) to the Chinese economy. Read more: South China Morning Post

UAE seeks closer China ties through Africa, South Pacific investments as Middle East nation eyes ‘global player role’

The UAE is leveraging its economic ties with China to co-invest in Africa and the South Pacific, capping off a decade of collaboration on ports, export zones, and other infrastructure projects. Read more: South China Morning Post

 

S. Korea, Japan resume high-level economic talks after nearly 8 years

South Korea and Japan are set to resume high-level economic talks after an almost eight-year hiatus due to historical tensions to assess bilateral economic cooperation and address mutual concerns, signalling a potential improvement in ties. Read more: Yonhap News Agency

Xi says ready to promote China-Nicaragua ties with strategic partnership as new starting point

Chinese President Xi Jinping stated his willingness to strengthen China-Nicaragua ties through a strategic partnership. In a phone call with Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega, Xi praised the decision to re-establish diplomatic ties two years ago, citing significant contributions to bilateral relations. Read more: Xinhua

A Chinese professor used AI to write a science fiction novel. Then it was a winner in a national competition

SCMP has reported that on Thursday a Journalism professor Shen Yang plans to detail his creation process so anyone can ‘create good fiction with AI’, The nearly 6,000-character Chinese-language novel Land of Memories, won a national competition. Read more: SCMP

China bans exports of rare-earth magnet technologies

China on Thursday banned exports of technology for making rare-earth magnets and imposed other restrictions related to the vital industrial metals, in an apparent response to moves by the U.S. and Japan to reduce their reliance on Chinese suppliers. Read more: Nikkei Asia

US to Gather Intelligence on Chinese Chipmakers as Biden Mulls Tariffs

The US Commerce Department will begin gathering information on Chinese production of legacy semiconductors — chips that aren’t cutting-edge but are still vital to the global economy — as it looks to track how deeply reliant US companies have become on the technology from China. Read more: Bloomberg

Taiwan Is Not Ready for a War With China

China is “expanding military capabilities at scale,” according to Taiwan’s annual defense report. That includes constructing airfields along its eastern and southern coastline and stationing new fighters and drones there to “seize air superiority” in any engagement across the Taiwan Strait. Read more: Bloomberg

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We are pleased to bring to you the new edition of the Decypher Journal. Decypher was started keeping in mind, the critical role that informed discourse plays in shaping our understanding of Asia’s evolving landscape. Our Journal is conceived as a bridge, linking local insights from Asia with a global audience keen on nuanced perspectives.
Decypher Journal: (Em)Powered? Authority in a Fragmented World
Privacy Overview

This website uses cookies so that we can provide you with the best user experience possible. Cookie information is stored in your browser and performs functions such as recognising you when you return to our website and helping our team to understand which sections of the website you find most interesting and useful.