China in Quotes
“At the moment there are no signs of a significant increase in demand for products made in Germany from China” – Volker Treier
De/Cypher Data Dive 📊: Orbital Launches by China in Last 10 Years 🛰️
Beyond The Great Wall
Exploring News About China in Depth
Are chatbots going Nuclear?
This piece is based on the research paper Escalation Risks from Language Models in Military and Diplomatic Decision-Making. Governments are increasingly considering the integration of autonomous AI agents in high-stakes situations like military and foreign-policy decision-making, especially with the emergence of advanced generative AI models like GPT-4. Using these models in foreign policy could either advise human decision-makers or be the bod to execute independently.
In 2023, Bloomberg reported that the US Department of Defense, in collaboration with Palantir and Scale AI, tested multiple AI agents and various large language models (LLMs) in simulated war scenarios. The study aimed to assess the behavior of these agents, focusing on their tendency to escalate conflicts. Contrary to previous studies, the research provided qualitative and quantitative insights into LLMs, revealing their propensity for escalation and unpredictable patterns, including potential nuclear deployment. Given the gravity of military and foreign-policy decisions, caution is advised before deploying autonomous language model agents in strategic contexts.
In a recent simulated war scenario created by ChatGPT, OpenAI, and Anthropic, the AI-driven war simulator recommended dropping two nuclear bombs on Russia and China to achieve world peace, highlighting the risk of AI models resorting to drastic measures.
Chinese scientists also created AlphaWar, an AI for military war games, claiming it passed the Turing test by imitating human behavior. Due to observed escalation risks and unpredictable patterns, caution should be exercised when incorporating large language models (LLMs) into military and foreign-policy decisions. More research is needed to better understand LLM behavior and create safeguards against potential biases in decision-making processes.
Russians Continue to Warm to China
China and Russia have doubled down on their “no-limits partnership” in recent weeks, with leaders from both countries vowing to maintain “close personal interaction” and the Chinese ambassador to Russia revealing Russian President Vladimir Putin’s plan to visit China this year.
During a Feb. 8 call, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Putin celebrated the deepened bilateral engagement and cooperation between China and Russia in various sectors and criticized what they called “U.S. interference in other countries’ affairs.”
In addition to the call between Xi and Putin, China’s ambassador to Russia, Zhang Hanhui, told Russian state media Sputnik Feb. 10 that Putin will visit China this year and that the two leaders are expected to hold several meetings during the year.
“Putin’s visit to China this year will definitely take place and China looks forward to his arrival,” Zhang said in the interview. (VoA)
China’s AI Exports (Analysis of Research Report)
By AidData and RAND
Between 2000 and 2017, Chinese government-funded AI exports grew substantially, tripling to quadrupling from 2005 to 2012 before stabilizing post-2012. This growth was driven by AI applications rather than infrastructure. Despite significant investment, AI’s share of China’s overseas financing remained modest (1-3%) by 2017. China’s competitiveness in AI exports stems from its integrated approach, offering both technology applications and infrastructure projects, sometimes bundled with other deals to enhance negotiation outcomes.
Chinese AI products’ affordability bolstered their appeal in the developing world, yet concerns exist regarding data safety, surveillance, and technology dependency. China aims for global tech leadership via AI investments, viewing it as pivotal for geopolitical influence and societal progress, as outlined in its AI development plan and supported by initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). China primarily targets low- and middle-income countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America for AI exports, amplifying its technological influence in these regions.
There are several risks associated with China’s AI exports. These risks include:
- Lack of Transparency: Concerns exist regarding the lack of transparency in project procurement processes related to China’s AI exports. The knowledge base mentions that the public’s perception of AI exports is often negative due to concerns over transparency, data privacy, and safety. The lack of clarity in how AI technology is being used and who has access to the data collected raises concerns about potential misuse or abuse.
- Data Privacy and Safety: The knowledge base indicates that worries over data privacy and safety are prevalent among the public in recipient countries. The apprehension stems from concerns about the lack of data protection policies, the governments’ capability to effectively handle AI technologies, and potential risks associated with data collection and usage. The robustness of legislative initiatives related to data protection in recipient countries is also questioned.
- Dependence on Imported Technology: The knowledge base suggests that many recipient countries, particularly low- and middle-income countries, become technically dependent on China for AI technology. This dependence may limit their ability to develop and maintain their own AI capabilities, potentially creating a long-term reliance on Chinese technology. This dependence raises concerns about technological sovereignty and the ability of recipient countries to shape their own AI policies and regulations.
- Ethical Concerns: The knowledge base does not explicitly mention ethical concerns related to China’s AI exports. However, ethical considerations such as bias in AI algorithms, potential human rights implications, and the use of AI for surveillance purposes are commonly discussed in the context of AI development and deployment. These ethical concerns may also apply to China’s AI exports, although specific details are not provided in the knowledge base.
Read full report here.
Chinese migrants flock to U.S.-Mexico border on economic pressures
People from China and elsewhere who are suspected of illegally crossing the U.S.-Mexico border are detained by U.S. authorities in southern California on Feb. 4. The number of Chinese migrants detained while attempting to enter the U.S. via Mexico has multiplied, with the desperate economic situation back home a major driver, interviews at a holding encampment in southern California show. Read more: Nikkei
Chinese SoE (State Owned Enterprises) beat Foreign Firms in returns.
Indications suggest that the prosperous era for foreign-invested firms in China may be waning, resembling a constrained environment rather than one of growth. Escaping these limitations remains difficult, as evidenced by a modest 1.4% growth in industrial output for foreign entities in 2023, contrasting with the 5% growth reported among state-owned enterprises (SOEs), reflecting an uneven recovery. Read more: SCMP
Palau threatens to retreat to Beijing camp as US aid is late.
Washington’s delay in providing economic help to the Pacific island nation Palau has made some local leaders more willing to drop diplomatic ties to Taiwan in exchange for Beijing’s financial assistance, the country’s president has warned.
“The leaders here (some of whom have done ‘business’ with the PRC) who want to accept its seemingly attractive economic offers – at the cost of shifting alliances, beginning with sacrificing Taiwan,” President Surangel Whipps Jnr wrote in a letter dated February 9. Read more: SCMP
Beijing condemns deaths of 2 mainland Chinese fishermen after Taiwan coastguard chase
Beijing has criticized Taiwan for the deaths of two mainland Chinese fishermen who drowned while being pursued by Taiwan’s coastguard. Taiwan maintains that its actions were in line with regulations aimed at deterring vessels from illegally entering its waters. Read more: SCMP
EU proposes sanctions on Chinese firms aiding Russian war effort
The EU is proposing sanctions on mainland Chinese firms for the first time to close loopholes enabling Russia to access military technology via third countries. Read more: The Guardian
Microsoft says it caught hackers from China, Russia and Iran using its AI tools
Microsoft has revealed that state-backed hackers from Russia, China, and Iran utilized tools from OpenAI, a company it supports, to enhance their hacking capabilities. Read more: Reuters
German investment in China rises to record high
German direct investment in China reached a record high of €11.9 billion ($12.7 billion) last year, representing a 4.3% increase, despite government calls to reduce exposure and decreased investment guarantees. Read more: Reuters
China seeks anti-money-laundering law revision to address virtual-asset risks
China is moving to revise its Anti-Money-Laundering (AML) Law, originally enacted in 2006, to address the emerging risks linked with virtual assets such as cryptocurrencies. Read more: SCMP
Teachers face uncertain future with falling birth rate set to create 1.9 million surplus by 2035
China is facing a surplus of teachers due to a declining birth rate, with projections indicating an excess of 1.5 million primary school teachers and 370,000 middle school teachers by 2035. Read more: SCMP
China releases 97 experimental areas to promote school-family-society cooperative education
China has designated 97 counties, districts, and cities, including Beijing’s Chaoyang District, as national-level experimental areas for school-family-society cooperation in educating students. Read more: Xinhua
Scientists tackle urban light pollution using satellite SDGSAT-1
Chinese scientists used earth science satellite SDGSAT-1 to tackle urban light pollution, providing valuable insights for urban lighting management. Read more: Xinhua
China conducts first nationwide review of retractions and research misconduct.
As of yesterday, the 15th of February, the deadline set by the Ministry of Education’s Department of Science, Technology and Informatization has come to pass. Back in November, the ministry issued a directive requiring Chinese universities to compile and submit detailed accounts of all academic papers withdrawn from publication in both English and Chinese-language journals within the last three years, along with the rationales for their retraction.
Data from Nature reveals that in 2023, approximately 14,000 retraction notices — nearly three-quarters of which involved Chinese co-authors — were issued by various publishers. Of these, Hindawi alone retracted over 9,600 papers, indicating the scale of the issue. The review period, beginning January 1, 2021, involves more than 17,000 retraction notices, although it remains to be seen if the government’s official lists will reflect this totality.
Motivated by the “publish or perish” culture, some Chinese researchers resort to unethical practices, targeting lower-impact journals. Lei Lei and Ying Zhang’s study, “Lack of Improvement in Scientific Integrity“, reveals a significant increase in retractions, with about 75% due to dishonest conduct like data fabrication and plagiarism. This trend, highlighted in the Web of Science SCI-expanded database, reflects the pressure to publish and ineffective deterrents against misconduct. In China, incentive structures, including financial rewards for publishing, may prioritize quantity over quality, exacerbating research malpractice.
Key among the problems is the lack of transparency, with 8.39% of retractions lacking clear reasons. This could suggest that the actual rate of misconduct could be higher than what is reported. Case in point, over 40 papers were retracted from ‘Acta Crystallographica Section E’ due to issues with data, indicating a pattern of deliberate fraud.
Another major concern is fake peer reviews, which accounted for 11.99% of all retractions, peaking in 2015. Reports suggest that the majority of these fake review cases were linked to Chinese researchers, who seemed to primarily target journals with a lower impact factor. This tactic could reflect a strategy to exploit less stringent review processes in these journals.
The national review imposes significant penalties on researchers guilty of misconduct, such as salary reductions and grant restrictions for not disclosing retracted papers. While this centralized approach is progress, its effectiveness could be limited without addressing incentives that favor quantity over quality in publishing. Shifting the entrenched “publish or perish” culture is vital for lasting integrity reform. Is this alone sufficient, or are deeper cultural shifts necessary?
Read more: Nature
What is driving China and Taliban closer?
Al-Jazeera has reported that the Taliban representative was one of the 309 diplomats presenting credentials to the President Xi Jinping of China. Why is China in such a hurry to recognise Taliban? It could be due to trade.
“In 2023, several Chinese companies signed multiple business deals with the Taliban government. The most prominent among them was a 25-year-long, multimillion-dollar oil extraction contract with an estimated investment value of $150m in the first year, and up to $540m over the next three years.” (Al-Jazeera) Furthermore quoting Jiayi Zhou, researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
“The Taliban are not an unknown entity to the Chinese government, which reached out to them when they were a pariah government in the late 1990s and continued to maintain a working relationship with the Taliban as an insurgency group,” she told Al Jazeera.
Beijing’s decades-long pragmatic relationship with the Taliban, Zhou said, is a “natural consequence” of a number of factors, most prominently security.”
Perspectives on a China-Taiwan Military Standoff
Background: The prospect of a military conflict between China and Taiwan looms large on the international stage, fueled by longstanding tensions and geopolitical complexities. Recent events, including China’s aggressive posture towards Taiwan and the Ukraine-Russia conflict, have intensified discussions surrounding this issue.
Understanding the Tensions: Differences over Taiwan’s sovereignty have long been a source of tension in Sino-Taiwanese relations. Despite being governed independently since 1949, Beijing considers Taiwan to be an integral part of its territory. Tensions rose further when the Democratic Progressive Party, which advocates for Taiwan’s independence, won a third term in 2024. This victory, combined with Beijing’s increased political and military pressure, stressed the situation’s volatile nature.
Evaluating the Risk: Concerns about a potential China-Taiwan war have grown as tensions have risen. In a Foreign Policy article, experts discuss the likelihood of such a conflict, with CIA Director William Burns claiming that China aims to seize Taiwan by 2027. However, opinions differ, with some scholars downplaying the risk, citing China’s historical reluctance to participate in large-scale conflicts.
Assessing China’s preparedness: Recent changes in China suggest a shift towards readiness for a “protracted” war in the Indo-Pacific, influenced by Russia’s ongoing conflict in Ukraine, according to analysts at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). Legal adjustments easing the return of reservists and granting military access to civilian infrastructure reflect China’s growing concern over potential conflicts in the region, particularly tensions involving Taiwan and the South China Sea. The IISS Military Balance 2024 report underscores this trend, predicting record increases in global defense spending, with China’s defense expenditure continuing its upward trajectory for the 29th consecutive year.
Assessing U.S. Preparedness: The United States plays a pivotal role in the Taiwan-China dynamic, given its strategic interests in the Asia-Pacific region. Recent reports shed light on U.S. efforts to bolster its military readiness and logistics network in anticipation of a potential conflict. As reported by Reuters, the U.S. military is stockpiling equipment in allied countries like Australia, aiming to enhance its operational capabilities and mitigate vulnerabilities in the event of hostilities.
Diplomatic Maneuvering: Diplomatic efforts also play a crucial role in managing tensions between China and Taiwan. Former Chinese ambassador Cui Tiankai’s remarks reflect Beijing’s stance of avoiding a war “trap” set by the United States. Meanwhile, Taiwan has garnered international support, as evidenced by the recent passage of a foreign aid package by the U.S. Senate, signaling solidarity with Taiwan amidst growing concerns.
Lessons from Ukraine: The ongoing conflict in Ukraine serves as a sobering reminder of the complexities and consequences of military aggression. An analysis by William & Mary’s TRIP project highlights divergent perspectives among international relations scholars regarding the likelihood of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. While some express skepticism, others underscore the need for vigilance and preparedness, drawing parallels with the Ukraine-Russia conflict.
Indonesia’s Presidential Election: Prabowo Subianto’s Victory and the Road Ahead
Indonesia’s recent presidential election marks a pivotal moment in its political landscape, with Prabowo Subianto emerging as the apparent victor. Preliminary counts from multiple survey institutions indicate his victory over rivals Anies Baswedan and Ganjar Pranowo, sparking varied reactions domestically and internationally.
While supporters herald Prabowo’s impending presidency as a triumph for all Indonesians, concerns arise over his alleged past human rights violations during his military tenure under the Suharto regime. Despite these concerns, the White House has expressed willingness to respect the election results, although emphasizing its commitment to human rights, potentially straining US-Indonesia relations.
Prabowo’s victory also prompts speculation about Indonesia’s future governance and foreign policy. While pledging to continue Joko Widodo’s popular initiatives, questions linger regarding his leadership style and coalition-building approach, contrasting with his predecessor’s demeanor.
Moreover, Prabowo’s close ties with Jokowi and the political implications of his endorsement through his son Gibran Rakabuming Raka raise concerns about potential dynastic politics and power consolidation among elites.
Internationally, Prabowo’s presidency could shape Indonesia’s relations with major players like the United States, given its critical role in geopolitical contests with China and climate change efforts. As Washington seeks to bolster ties with Jakarta, discussions about new partnerships underscore Indonesia’s strategic importance on the global stage.
In the 2019 presidential race, Prabowo was a vocal critic of Chinese investment, vowing to review China’s economic influence in Indonesia. Post-election, as defence minister, his softer approach during the Natuna Sea incident, where China challenged Indonesia’s maritime sovereignty, was seen as a departure from his campaign’s assertiveness. This shift suggests that there’s a likelihood that economic pragmatism will prevail, following the path of his predecessor, Joko Widodo, who fostered strong economic ties with China, cementing it as Indonesia’s major trade partner and infrastructure investor. Given Indonesia’s reliance on Chinese investment for its development, particularly in projects like the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed rail, and China’s significant role in the Belt and Road Initiative, Prabowo may prioritize economic stability over nationalistic rhetoric.
However, recent challenges, such as China’s reinstated import duties on coal, directly impact Indonesia’s exports, a leading coal exporter. Moreover, improvements in diplomatic relations, as indicated by the Indonesian Ambassador’s statement on January 8, 2024, about stronger bilateral ties, highlight the complexities Prabowo’s administration faces in balancing economic dependency with national interest.
Indonesian sentiment towards China is shifting, with only 43% viewing China’s growth positively, down from 54% in 2011. Six in 10 agree Jakarta should curb Beijing’s rise. While the US remains important, with 84% advocating neutrality in US-China conflicts, concerns about China’s dominance persist among Indonesians. Nonetheless, only a portion of Indonesians expressed concern over China’s economic presence during campaign rallies, indicating that domestic issues such as the rise of authoritarian practices took precedence for many voters.
Indonesians are anxious about democracy’s decline, as evidenced by accusations of electoral manipulation in favour of Prabowo and concerns about the potential for political interference with the armed forces and electoral commission. High-profile instances such as Anies being reported for questioning the legitimacy of the electoral process fuel these fears of democratic backsliding under Prabowo’s administration. In 2023, Indonesia slid 2 ranks to 56 in the Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index, indicating a decrease in the country’s overall democratic score.
Timeline: News From Asia 🌏
Friday
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) will leave the rate on its one-year policy loans – called the medium-term lending facility (MLF) – steady at 2.5 per cent as soon as Sunday, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of analysts. Most of the analysts see either a small increase in the MLF issuance, or little changed from the loans maturing this month. Some 499 billion yuan (US$69.8 billion) worth of loans are due to expire. (SCMP)
While Japan’s nominal gross domestic product slipped below Germany’s last year, making it the world’s fourth-largest economy, the country’s growth rate has surpassed that of China for the first time in almost half a century. Japan’s nominal growth rate overtook China’s for the first time since 1977, according to preliminary 2023 GDP figures released by Japan’s Cabinet Office on Thursday. Its economy showed nominal growth of 5.7%, while China’s grew by 4.6%. (Nikkei)
Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Friday that a weak yen has its merits and demerits although he was concerned about the negative aspects of a weak currency. “Currency rates are set by markets reflecting fundamentals. Rapid moves are undesirable and stable moves are desirable,” Suzuki told a lower house session of parliament. (CNA)
US President Joe Biden on Thursday again told Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that he should not proceed with military action in Rafah without a credible and executable plan to protect Palestinian civilians, the White House said. (Arab News)
Thursday
Prabowo Subianto’s camp on Wednesday declared victory in Indonesia’s three-way presidential election, after quick-count results showed he had secured the simple majority required to win the race in a single round. (SCMP)
While most containerships are making detours around the conflict-affected Red Sea, experts say container freight rates, which had initially soared, are showing signs of easing. “We believe that the worst is behind us,” said Philip Damas, managing director at British maritime research consultancy Drewry. “Now we are into a second phase where it will be easier for exporters to manage and organize, and also where the spot rates are going to come down significantly after the early phase.” (Nikkei)
Russia and China on Wednesday accused the United States and Britain of illegally attacking military sites used by Yemen’s Houthi rebels to launch missiles at commercial vessels in the Red Sea, disrupting global shipping. (Arab News)
Albania’s cybersecurity authorities have accused a hacker group “sponsored” by the Iranian government of attacking the country’s Institute of Statistics earlier this month. (Ground)
Wednesday
Researchers from the UK, Australia, and the United States worked with Iran’s Sharif University on drone technology research, raising concerns about security risks and sanctions violations. (The Guardian)
A Congressional review discovered a significant drop in the value of Chinese companies listed on US stock exchanges last year, despite a modest increase in the number of listed Chinese firms. Currently, there are 256 Chinese companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, and NYSE American exchanges, totaling US$848 billion. This reflects a decline from 252 companies worth US$1.03 trillion a year ago, marking a 17.5% decrease. (Nikkei)
Jailed former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra has been granted parole after serving six months in detention, the prime minister said Tuesday (Feb 13), while highlighting his service to the country. (CNA)
Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is considering visiting South Korea on March 20, broadcaster Fuji TV reported on Wednesday. Kishida seeks to meet President Yoon Suk Yeol and discuss issues including North Korea ahead of the South Korean legislative election in April, Fuji TV reported, citing government sources. (Nikkei)
The US and UK launched strikes on Houthi-controlled Hodeidah province in Yemen on Tuesday, as rights organizations and government officials accused the militia group of exploiting the Gaza conflict to recruit minors to their own cause. (Arab News)
Tuesday
Regarded as one of the “iron rice bowls” of China, teaching has remained a much sought-after option for Chinese jobseekers in an era of economic uncertainty. The number of newborn babies in China has gone into free fall since 2017, with births plunging by more than 500,000 last year to slightly over 9 million. The number of children attending kindergartens also saw its first decline in nearly two decades in 2021, while primary school students fell in 2022 for the first time in a decade, according to the Ministry of Education. (SCMP)
The US should review Chinese biotech firm Wuxi AppTec and its affiliate Wuxi Biologics for sanctions, a bipartisan group of lawmakers told top Biden administration officials on Monday. In a letter dated February 12 and seen by Reuters, the lawmakers told Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo that the global pharmaceutical giant’s links to China’s Communist Party and military threatened US national security. (SCMP)
Vietnam is amending its pension laws in an attempt to deter people from abandoning the fund before retirement. Yet in some quarters, the pending change is having the opposite effect. (Nikkei)
Last month, Malaysia’s deputy prime minister Ahmad Zahid Hamidi announced the traditional pension system would be abolished moving forward, and that new civil service hires would instead contribute to the Employers Provident Fund (EPF). But it has already drawn swift criticism. Former Member of Parliament and deputy minister Ong Kian Ming questioned the lack of discussion with stakeholders, while a teachers’ association said it would hurt the attractiveness of the civil service.
Thank you for reading!!!
