By- Amogh Dev Rai (Director Research, ASIA and Editor of De/cypher), Aurko Chakrabarti (Narrative Designer, ASIA), Venkatram Rai (Research Officer) & Bhupesh Upadhyay (Sr. Data Visualization Engineer)
Af-Pak De/Cypher
Top Stories from this week
Hours after human rights lawyer Imaan Mazari and leader of the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM) was granted bail by an anti-terrorism court (ATC) on Monday 28th August, the Islamabad police arrested Imaan again from outside the Adiala jail. She was arrested on 19th August, following a rally of the PTM in Islamabad. She was booked on charges of sedition, preventing government officials from carrying out their duties and damaging public property. On 1stSeptember an Islamabad anti-terrorism court (ATC) on granted Imaan Mazari post-arrest bail in exchange for Rs10,000 indemnity bonds. It happened a day after an ATC sent her to jail on judicial remand and issued directives to keep her in a women’s police station in the capital city until her bail hearing. Islamabad High Court simultaneously issued injunction to prevent further arrests of Imaan Mazari. The high court said the secretary interior, inspector general of police and Federal Investigation Agency director general should neither arrest Imaan Mazari nor assist any province in her arrest. The court directed them to make sure that she was not taken outside the jurisdiction of Islamabad. Imaan Mazari is also the daughter of former Pakistan Tehreek e Insaf (PTI) leader Shireen Mazari.
Read More: Correspondent, The Express Tribune. Umer Burney, Dawn. Web Desk, Bol News.
On August 31st, a suicide attack on a military convoy in Pakistan killed nine soldiers and left five injured. The attack occurred in Jani Khel area of Bannu district in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Earlier On August 22, at least six soldiers were martyred in a skirmish with terrorists in the Asman Manza area of South Waziristan district. Pakistan has witnessed an uptick in terror activities in recent months, especially in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, after the outlawed TTP ended its ceasefire with the government in November last year. The number of militant attacks in August was the highest tally for monthly strikes in almost nine years, according to data released by a think tank on Saturday. There were 99 attacks across the country, the highest number in a single month since November 2014, according to data compiled by the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS). The data showed a month-on-month increase of 83 per cent, compared to 54 attacks reported in July. There were four suicide attacks in August, three in tribal districts and one in mainland Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In counter-terror operations, The Counter-Terrorism Department (CTD) of Pakistan killed eight terrorists in separate operations in Balochistan during the past 24 hours.
Read More: News Desk, The Express Tribune. Ikram Junaidi, Dawn. Web Desk, ARY News.
Section 144 was imposed in Gilgit-Baltistan province of Pakistan on 2nd September after two clerics from different schools of thought made insensitive remarks over the past few days, hurting the feelings of the respective communities. Mobile internet service were also suspended across the region. The situation turned tense on Sept 1, when demonstrations were held in the Gilgit city and surrounding areas on the call of Anjuman-i-Imamia, hours after prominent cleric Maulana Qazi Nisar Ahmed allegedly made derogatory remarks during a protest in Gilgit. Earlier in August, another cleric Agha Baqir had allegedly used controversial language during a speech in Skardu. Unrest spread in the region after protesters in Chilas in Diamer blocked the Karakoram Highway and the Babusar Pass road for three days, demanding Agha Baqir’s arrest. Soon, demonstrations also engulfed the regions of Astore and Gilgit and were only called off after a case was registered against Agha Baqir. On Sunday the government’s announced that the situation had turned normal after Gilgit-Baltistan Chief Minister Haji Gulbar Khan met with the delegations of Anjuman-i-Imamiya Gilgit and Ahle Sunnat Wal Jamaat as part of efforts to maintain law and order in the region.
Read More: Web Desk, Bol News. Jamil Nagri, Dawn. Jamil Nagri, Dawn.
National Politics
For the first time in its history, Pakistan will have an interim president and prime minister from next week when President Arif Alvi’s tenure ends, and he assumes the position of an interim president. He will be restricted to a limited role in important national affairs and will be asked to resign after the election schedule is announced. Sources say that it has been made clear to the president that he will play a role in national affairs only when it is absolutely necessary and indicated by the federal government.
Read More: Muhammad Saleh Zaafir, The International News
Sources have revealed that the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) is going to hold general elections in the last week of January 2024 and most likely on January 28th. The election commission has prepared a proposed schedule for the upcoming elections. ECP has recommended the dates from January 27 to 30 for the polling day.
Read More: Web Desk, Bol News.
Business and Economy
The Price of refined sugar has once again soared in Pakistan because of Pakistani Ruppe registering high levels of depreciation at the PSX with each passing day and smuggling going on unabated. The essential item is reportedly being sold at Rs. 200 per kg in some cities and is on its way to getting out of the reach of the common man. For the first time in Pakistan’s history sugar has become costlier than flour and milk. It has ignited a blame-game between two major coalition partners of the former government, PMLN and PPP, which intensified on Sunday.
Read More: Lahore Desk, Dunya News. Azeem Samar, Munawar Hasan & News Desk, The International News.
The caretaker government is likely to provide relief to power consumers using up to 300 units per month with a reduction of Rs3,000 in their electricity bills. People have taken to the streets in various cities to demand relief from the latest increase in power tariffs amid record inflation in the country. Television footage over the weekend showed people burning the bills and scuffling with officials of power distribution companies. The grim situation occured as global lenders put Pakistan under stern conditions to end all subsidies and to collect revenue targets aimed at reviving the dilapidating economy. On 29th August, Pakistan’s interim government announced that it requested a concession from the IMF for millions of Pakistanis who are struggling to pay their electricity costs. According to government sources on Sunday, the consumers receiving a bill ranging between Rs60,000 to Rs70,000 will likely get a relief of Rs13,000.
Read More: Zaigham Naqvi, The Express Tribune. Web Desk, Daily Pakistan.
Pakistan performs poorly than Afghanistan, Nigeria in Trading Economics Index as inflation skyrockets. Data shared by the Trading Economics shows Pakistan ranked at 18th among countries most affected by skyrocketing inflation. Surprisingly, the nuclear armed nation jumped to number four in highest inflation while Iran, Syria and Lebanon are the only nations which topped the grim chart. Trading Economics data shows inflation in Nigeria clocked at over 24pc, 27.8pc in Laos, while inflation in Pakistan was recorded at 28.3 percent that rattled people which are facing possible food, and medicines shortages.
Read More: Web Desk, Daily Pakistan
Foreign Policy
Caretaker Prime Minister of Pakistan Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar has reaffirmed Pakistan’s strong commitment to further strengthen and deepen ties with Iran. Talking to Iranian Ambassador to Pakistan Reza Amiri Moghaddam in Islamabad, he stressed the need to focus on enhancing cooperation in the economic and security domains. He also highlighted that the recent inauguration of Mand-Pishin border marketplace would not only contribute to economic uplift of the border areas but also serve as manifestation of the collective commitment to work for the betterment of the two peoples.
Read More: Web Desk, ARY News
United States Ambassador to Pakistan Donald Blome, in a meeting with Pakistan Muslim League (N) Senior Vice President and Nawaz Sharif’s daughter Maryam Nawaz, discussed the importance of cooperation in various areas, including trade, the economy, security, peace, and regional stability. The meeting held at Murree residence of Maryam Nawaz centered around a discussion on the significance of the long-standing and historic bilateral ties between the two countries.
Read More: Staff Report, Pakistan Today.
Views and Analysis
Politics
Digital news channel The Centrum Media (TCM) has created ‘The Fight for Democracy’, a documentary series exploring the turbulent history of civil-military relations in Pakistan, the electables’ phenomenon, and how geopolitics enabled military rule in Pakistan. In the series prominent intellectuals and experts like Political Analyst Ahmned Bilal Mehboob, Parliamentary Affairs Expert Zafarullah Khan, Political Scientist Aasim Sajjad Akhtar and Lt. Gen. Faiz Chishti share their views on Democracy and Pakistan’s Military.
Episode 01 of ‘The Fight for Democracy’ sheds light on the challenges Pakistan’s political setup had to face in its lifetime and how from General Ayub Khan to General Pervez Musharraf, democracy in Pakistan has a history of suffering at the hands of military rulers.
Episode 02 of ‘The Fight for Democracy’ explores the political and geopolitical reasons behind the strength of Pakistan’s military. Is U.S involved in derailing democracy in Pakistan? Do politicians give away their freedom to the military? What makes the army chief so powerful in Pakistan?
Taliban
Initially eager to see the Afghan Taliban take control in Afghanistan, Pakistan now grapples with unmet expectations. Two years on, issues like cross-border terrorism remain unresolved and pose significant security risks. Afghanistan’s other neighbours are also unhappy with the growing aggressive posture of the Taliban leadership over security, border management, and the diversion of water resources.
Read More: Muhammad Amir Rana, Dawn.
Economy
A competitive cost of energy, particularly electricity tariffs, and its uninterrupted supply are essential for oiling the industry’s wheels. Rejecting the recent hike in electricity bills, the Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industries said it was “debilitating both for residential and commercial consumers, with inflation already killing businesses and rendering them unprofitable and bankrupt”.
Read More: Jawaid Bokhari, Dawn.
Infographic
A recent World Bank study found that Pakistan’s tariff policy has resulted in exceptionally high effective protection for domestic industries, which has effectively discouraged significant exporting. In short, a protectionist approach has inadvertently led to a decline in exports.
Bangladesh De/Cypher
Top Stories from this week
2800 BNP activists accused in 2 cases, 28 arrested
On Saturday, a BNP party procession marking its founding anniversary took place where there were clashes between the police and party members. 2816 BNP leaders and activists have been sued. Read more: Samakal
WB provides $200m for improving primary healthcare in Bangladesh
On Friday, the World Bank announced approval of a $200 million loan to help Bangladesh improve primary healthcare services in urban areas. The project will establish a network of primary health centres, improve antenatal services for women, and support hypertension screening and follow-up of adults. It will also focus on environmental health and preventive services like mosquito control and medical waste management. Read more: Daily Ittefaq
Dengue: 16 die, 2,608 hospitalised in a day
Bangladesh is facing a record dengue outbreak, with 16 more deaths and 2,608 new cases reported on Sunday. The death toll has now reached 634, and nearly 130,000 people have been infected this year. Hospitals are struggling to cope with the influx of patients, and there is no vaccine or specific treatment for dengue. There were 21 dengue-related deaths between Friday and Saturday, a record number. Read more: Bangla News 24
International Outlook
The Bangladesh government is expecting to host high-level delegations from the US, France, and Russia over the next two weeks. The purpose of the visits will be to discuss security and defence cooperation, the Rohingya crisis, and the Russia-Ukraine war. Read more: The Daily Star
Relevant Stories
Bangladesh will raise the Teesta water sharing issue with India during Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s visit to New Delhi next week. Bangladesh also wants to discuss the Ganges water treaty, which will expire soon. Read more: Daily Asian Age
President Mohammed Shahabuddin will leave for Indonesia on Monday to attend the 43rd ASEAN Summit and 18th East Asia Summit. He will also deliver a speech on “Strengthening Regional Architecture to Support the Epicentrum of Growth from the Perspective of IORA” and hold bilateral meetings with leaders from Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, and Timor-Leste. Read more: Daily Asian Age
An IMF technical assistance mission will visit Bangladesh on September 6 to conduct a fiscal risk analysis. The team will assess Bangladesh’s debt management strategies and analyse recent and expected trends in external non-concessional borrowing. The mission will also discuss Bangladesh’s macroeconomic risk analysis and debt sustainability analysis. Read more: The Business Post
In a statement made on Tuesday, the Human Rights Watch urged Bangladesh government to accept the offer from the UN to support an independent commission of inquiry into enforced disappearances by the country’s security forces. The government has repeatedly denied the allegations and harassed the families of the victims. Read more: Dhaka Tribune
UN Special Rapporteur Irene Khan has criticised the draft Cyber Security Act for retaining problematic provisions from the Digital Security Act, such as Sections 21 and 28, which criminalise criticism of religious beliefs and the liberation war. Read more: New Age
National Politics
On Tuesday, following an open letter from global leaders and Nobel laureates urging the government to halt the trial proceedings against Mohammad Yunus, the BNP has demanded the immediate withdrawal of all cases filed against the Nobel laureate. Read more: The Daily Sun
On Friday, thousands of BCL members vowed to build a Smart Bangladesh under the leadership of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. They took oath to follow the struggles of Bangabandhu, the dedication of Bangamata and the courage of Sheikh Hasina to build a prosperous homeland. Read more: Bangladesh Pratidin
On Sunday, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has stressed the need to maintain friendly relations with all countries while taking necessary preparations to safeguard Bangladesh’s sovereignty and independence. She also emphasised the need to modernise the country’s armed forces. Read more: Prothom Alo
Quotes of the week
Statements from Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP)
Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, Secretary General of the BNP spoke at Hazrat Shahjalal (R) International Airport in the capital on Saturday evening after returning home from treatment in Singapore:
“It is a very sad thing that all the dirty words are spread involving us where politicians like us who were in the struggle of the liberation war, and who are now involved in the democratic struggle. And unfortunately, it spreads in mass media and social media. I think it is a matter of shame to give response to it.” Read more: The Daily Observer
BNP senior leader Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury warned the government on Saturday that holding a lopsided election this time would be difficult:
“They’re using all (state apparatus) to implement their project of stealing votes by keeping people out (of the electoral process.) But it won’t happen since the people have decided not to retreat this time. After the liberation war, they have now been on the biggest struggle and their victory is certain.” Read more: The Daily Sun
Standing committee member Moyeen Khan addressed a rally marking the founding anniversary of BNP on Friday:
“We’ve taken to the streets. We will bring back democracy by toppling this undemocratic regime through a peaceful and disciplined movement in the streets.” Read more: Prothom Alo
Statements from Awami League (AL)
Obaidul Quader, general secretary of the ruling Bangladesh AL, addressed a rally of distinguished personalities at the Old Trade Fair Ground in the city’s Agargaon on Saturday to mark the inauguration of a portion of the Dhaka Elevated Motorway:
“The people didn’t get anything (good) from BNP. In the name of running the country, BNP made the country world champions for five consecutive times after looting public property through Hawa Bhaban.” Read more: New Age
On Thursday, Foreign Minister Dr AK Abdul Momen made a statement to reporters at a briefing at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs:
“Those who wrote a letter in favour of Prof Yunus might not know the facts. They may think that he is being harassed due to political or other reasons. We hope they will know it. We will provide if they want to know.” Read more: The Daily Sun
On Friday, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina addressed a student rally organised by the Bangladesh Chhatra League (BCL) at the historic Suhrawardy Udyan:
“Election is not their (BNP’s) concern as they are again out to play ducks and drakes with the voting rights of the people,” Read more: Prothom Alo
On Saturday, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina addressed a civic rally in Agargaon following the inauguration of the Dhaka Elevated Motorway:
“Let me be clear about this. This is our soil; we liberated the country under the leadership of the father of the nation. There is nothing to gain by threatening us. People of Bangladesh know how to realise their rights.” Read more: The Daily Star
Business and Economy
Bangladesh has been experiencing a prolonged slowdown in foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. The FDI inflow as a percentage of GDP has declined from 1.74% in 2013 to 0.41% in 2021. This is lower than the average FDI inflow for lower-middle-income countries (LMICs) and least-developed countries (LDCs). According to a study, there are several potential factors that are responsible for the low FDI inflows, including bureaucratic red tape, poor infrastructure, unreliable energy supply, and corruption. Read more: The Financial Express
Relevant Stories
Germany will provide €191 million to Bangladesh for sustainable development projects in the areas of green energy, climate-smart urban development, sustainable supply chains, biodiversity, and women’s empowerment. Read more: The Daily Observer
Bangladesh can save up to £315m in tariffs annually on exports to the UK under the new Developing Countries Trading Scheme (DCTS). However, realising these benefits will depend on addressing critical issues such as human and labour rights, as well as implementing strong anti-corruption measures. Read more: The Business Standard
On Wednesday, Bangladesh and Hong Kong signed a tax avoidance agreement to eliminate double taxation and prevent tax evasion. The agreement is expected to attract more investment from Hong Kong to Bangladesh. Read more: The Business Standard
On Thursday, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) assured provisions of up to $3.5 billion for the construction of the MRT-5 southern route of the Dhaka Metro Rail. The 17.40-km line will be ready by 2030 and will help ease traffic congestion in the city. Read more: The Financial Express
On Friday, it was announced that Sri Lanka has repaid $100 million of the $200 million it borrowed from Bangladesh in 2021. This is the second instalment of the repayment, and the remaining $50 million is expected to be cleared by September. Read more: Outlook Bangla
Rohingya Refugee Situation
As of this August, six years have gone without a single Rohingya returning to Myanmar. Several initiatives and activities to remedy this condition have been recognised throughout the last year. Despite this, the repatriation process has yet to begin. The Rohingyas in Bangladeshi camps are becoming increasingly impatient and frustrated. This has caused several security issues and poses a threat to peaceful coexistence. The security situation in the Rohingya camps is deteriorating. Murder, human trafficking, drug and weapon smuggling, kidnappings, and fires are all common occurrences. Read more: The Geopolitics
Relevant Stories
On Saturday, a 17-year-old Rohingya man was found dead in a drain in the Ukhia Rohingya camp in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh. His throat had been slit. The police are investigating the murder. Read more: Voice of America (Bangla)
On Sunday, a 4-year-old Rohingya boy was rescued from a Muchni camp in Teknaf after being abducted three days earlier from a Ukhia camp. Three members of the kidnapping ring were apprehended. The boy’s parents paid a ransom of 45,000 taka and 700 taka, but the kidnappers did not release him. Read more: Jagonews24
On Sunday, Japan announced they would be sending a delegation to Bangladesh to assess the situation of Rohingya refugees and discuss ways to increase Japan’s humanitarian assistance. The delegation will also meet with Japanese businesses in Bangladesh to discuss ways to improve the investment environment. Read more: Somoy News
Latest in Society
The banking sector in Bangladesh is at risk of cyber-attacks due to a lack of investment in security measures and skilled manpower. Bangladesh Bank has instructed banks to improve their security measures, but many banks have not complied. Read more: New Age
Bangladesh is taking extensive security measures to ensure the safe transportation of nuclear fuel to the Rooppur power plant. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is monitoring the security arrangements for the transportation of the nuclear fuel. Read more: The Daily Star
On Sunday, a Bangladeshi man was shot dead by the Indian Border Security Force (BSF) in Kurigram while he was allegedly involved in cow smuggling. The BSF opened fire on a group of cattle smugglers, killing one of them. Read more: The Daily Star
Views and Analysis
Politics
Revitalizing and rethinking Bangladesh’s diplomacy
The article emphasises the importance of reinvigorating and restructuring Bangladesh’s diplomacy. It warns against oversimplification of diplomatic efforts and perceiving non-membership in the BRICS as a setback. Read more: Weekly Blitz
Economy
Sri Lanka has managed to bring inflation down tenfold. Why are we still struggling with ours?
The article examines how Sri Lanka has successfully reduced its inflation rate through policy rate increases, fiscal austerity, and IMF negotiations, but Bangladesh, on the other hand, is still dealing with inflation, particularly rising food prices. Read more: The Business Standard
Climate
China and India’s race to dam the Brahmaputra River puts the Himalayas at risk
India and China are constructing dams on the Brahmaputra River, a shared resource. Local communities are concerned about the impact of the dams on their livelihoods and the environment. To manage the Brahmaputra River in a sustainable manner, all riparian countries must work together. Read more: The Conversation
Infographic
Rest of Asia
Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s Deputy Security Council Chair, stated that Japan’s military buildup with US assistance complicates the situation in the Asia-Pacific region. The Kuril Islands are the subject of a territorial dispute between Russia and Japan. Read more: The Japan Times
Chinese firms have expanded their market share in EVs, batteries, and other critical products. This makes it difficult for the United States and other countries to reduce their reliance on China for these products. As China’s dominance in these markets grows, the United States and other countries are looking to diversify their supply chains and reduce their reliance on China. Read more: Nikkei Asia
China is furious at Japan for discharging treated nuclear waste water from the Fukushima nuclear power plant into the sea. The Chinese government and state media have been carrying out a disinformation campaign in order to stir up public anger. The Japanese government has deemed the release safe, but China has banned all Japanese seafood imports. Read more: BBC
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this newsletter are solely those of the respective authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policies or positions of the publishers.
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