Asia Headlines: Quick Recap
China, Pakistan navies hold drills days after Russia’s historic Andaman exercise
The Chinese and Pakistani navies are holding weeklong drills in the Arabian Sea days after the Russian Pacific Fleet and Myanmar practised repelling attacks in their first maritime exercise, while India and the United States pledged security cooperation. At a naval base in Karachi on Saturday, the Chinese and Pakistani navies kicked off the exercise in the waters and airspace of the northern Arabian Sea in drills that include anti-submarine operations. The exercise will end on Nov, 17.
During the exercise, China and Pakistan will conduct joint maritime patrols for the first time, the People’s Liberation Army Daily reported on Monday. The exercise follows what Moscow describes as “the first Russian-Myanmar naval exercise in modern history” held from Nov. 7-9 in the Andaman Sea on the northeastern fringe of the Indian Ocean, a milestone for Russia’s naval presence in a sea that the United States counts as one of its global security interests. (Reuters)
Sunak Brings Ex-PM David Cameron Into UK Cabinet in Shock Move
Former UK Prime Minister David Cameron has been unexpectedly appointed by current Prime Minister Rishi Sunak as the country’s new Foreign Secretary. Cameron, who resigned in 2016 following the Brexit referendum, takes over for James Cleverly. Sunak’s unexpected move, aimed at reversing a polling deficit, comes amid Cameron’s previous controversies, including lobbying for Greensill Capital. Cameron’s return to the forefront is seen as a strategic yet risky move, especially given his dovish stance towards China, which contrasts with the Conservative Party’s current anti-China sentiment.
China will host 6-nation ‘Aman Youyi’ army drills to ‘deepen trust’ with Southeast Asia as disputes roil South China Sea
First-timers Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos to join Malaysia and Thailand for the anti-terror drills when China hosts them later this month, Beijing says. Vietnam and Malaysia contest some of China’s claims in the South China Sea, where its tensions have spiked with another rival claimant, the Philippines (SCMP).
China’s high-tech manufacturing loans raise fears of wave of cheap exports
Don Durfee, Kevin Yao, and, Eduaordo Baptista write in Reuters feature about China’s leaders, determined to upgrade manufacturing, are steering money toward makers of high-tech products, from semiconductors to EVs, raising fears that overcapacity will fuel a new wave of cheap exports.
Lending data from China’s central bank offers a glimpse of government priorities: as of the end of September, outstanding loans to the troubled property sector fell 0.2% year-on-year but lending to the manufacturing sector jumped 38.2%.(Reuters)
Ukrainian officer coordinated Nord Stream attack: Washington Post
A Ukrainian military officer coordinated last year’s attack on the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline, the Washington Post reported on Saturday, citing anonymous sources in Ukraine and Europe.
No one has taken responsibility for the September 2022 blasts, which occurred off the Danish island of Bornholm and ruptured three out of four lines of the system that delivers Russian gas to Europe.
Washington and NATO called it an act of sabotage, while Moscow said it was an act of international terrorism. (Washington Post)
Kim Jong-un closes slate of North Korea’s embassies as sanctions bite
Media reported that North Korean ambassadors in Uganda and Angola had announced the closure of their embassies in “farewell” visits to the countries’ leaders. The North has also shuttered its consulate in Hong Kong and embassy in Madrid, while a similar fate could await missions in about eight other locations, according to the Yomiuri Shimbun, a Japanese newspaper.
While North Korea has made dramatic progress in its nuclear and ballistic missile programmes, sanctions are making it harder to acquire foreign currency, some of which is used to fund its overseas presence. Its diplomatic missions do not receive money directly from Pyongyang, but instead sustain their presence from construction and IT, as well as illegal trade, smuggling and money laundering. (The Guardian)
South Korea launches campaign to squash bedbugs after outbreak takes hold
South Korea’s government has declared war on bedbugs, amid reports that an infestation is causing panic in a country that had practically rid itself of the nocturnal bloodsuckers.
Starting next week, authorities will carry out inspections of “vulnerable” locations – including public bathhouses and lodging facilities – and immediately disinfect places where the bugs are found.
The four-week campaign comes as confirmation that the outbreak, thought to have originated in France in September, is taking hold in South Korea. (The Guardian)
Azerbaijan is acting in self-defence, Ambassdor Elin Suleymanov
In the current climate, it is important that we do not let these legal distinctions slip. A state using its revenue to defend its territorial integrity is, or at least should be, uncontroversial. It is the first duty of any government and is enshrined in the UN charter.Moreover, a major obstacle to peace in the South Caucasus – Armenian occupation – has been removed. Last month, both my government and the Armenian government stated that a peace settlement is now possible within a matter of months. (Extract from letter to The Guardian)
Hamas Attack Gives South Korea ‘Wake-Up Call’ on Border Security
The Oct. 7 Hamas attacks on Israel has revived a gut-wrenching question in South Korea: Could North Korea pull off a similar surprise assault? This was the key of topic of discussion during Anthony Blinken’s recent visit.
Af-Pak De/Cypher
13 Nov, 2023
Top Stories From The Week: Af-Pak
Monday
SC to take up Musharraf’s plea against death penalty
The Supreme Court of Pakistan will hear appeals filed by the late former President Pervez Musharraf, seeking to overturn his death sentence in the high treason case, beginning on November 10, 2019. Musharraf’s counsel claims that the trial violated the Constitution and the Code of Criminal Procedure, and that the conviction should be overturned. Read more: Dawn
Lt Col among four servicemen martyred in Khyber IBO
Four servicemen, including Lieutenant Colonel Muhammad Hassan Haider, were killed in an intelligence-based operation (IBO) in Khyber’s Tirah Valley, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. Lt Col Haider’s operation killed three terrorists and injured three others. Four soldiers were killed in the intense firefight. The incident occurred amid an increase in terrorist activity in the country, including attacks on security forces and a foiled attack on the Pakistan Air Force Mianwali Training Air Base. Read more: Express Tribune
Pakistan, Saudi Arabia condemn Israeli minister’s remarks on using nuclear bombs in Gaza
Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have strongly condemned the Israeli minister’s remarks about using nuclear weapons on Gaza. Former Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz expressed concern about the extremist mindset associated with nuclear access, describing it as a grave threat to global peace. He urged the International Atomic Energy Agency to monitor Israel’s nuclear facilities and urged an urgent global response. Read more: The Daily Pakistan
Gas circular debt swelled to Rs2084b in PDM govt
Despite a 112 percent increase in gas prices, Pakistan’s gas circular debt increased to Rs2084 billion during the PDM government. The PDM government added Rs533 billion to the circular debt in the first 15 months of its tenure, for a total increase of Rs940 billion from June 2020 to June 2023. Read more: The Nation
Nawaz Sharif tells PML-N leadership to gear up for elections
Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has directed the Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N) leadership to prepare for the February 8, 2024 elections. Nawaz Sharif discussed the party’s election campaign and future political activities during a meeting at the PML-N central secretariat in Lahore. This is the first time Nawaz Sharif has met with party members since returning to Pakistan from self-exile in London. Read more: The News PK
PTI to participate in polls with full force: Core Committee
The Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) Core Committee announced that the party, led by Chairman Imran Khan, will campaign vigorously in the upcoming general elections. The committee praised Imran Khan for his perseverance during his over 100 days of unjust imprisonment, describing him as a symbol of struggle and determination for true freedom. Read more: Pakistan Today
Tuesday
Islamabad hopeful of reaching Reko Diq deal with Riyadh by Dec: PM
Caretaker Prime Minister Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar revealed ongoing talks with Saudi Arabia to sell a stake in the Reko Diq copper-gold mine, expressing optimism that a deal will be reached by December. Pakistan views the Saudi offer favourably, and talks between the parties involved are ongoing. Barrick Gold Corporation owns 50% of the project, while Antofagasta, a Chilean company, withdrew in exchange for $900 million. If the transaction is successful, it has the potential to alter ownership dynamics. Read more: The News PK
Punjab announces four-day holiday amid worsening smog
In response to the escalating smog crisis, the caretaker Punjab government has declared a four-day holiday to alleviate health concerns. The government had previously declared a province-wide emergency, and the Lahore High Court had ordered smog emergency measures to protect citizens’ health. Read more: The Daily Pakistan
PML-N, MQM-P to contest general elections together
The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan (MQM-P) have announced their intention to work together in the February 8 general elections. Saad Rafique of the PML-N stated that the parties will address political, economic, and legal issues jointly, while leaving room for other political entities. In Lahore, a MQM-P delegation led by Khalid Maqbool Siddiqui, Farooq Sattar, and Syed Mustafa Kamal met with PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif to confirm a joint strategy to address national challenges. Read more: The Business Recorder
Current account deficit forecast cut by $2b
Pakistan has informed the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that its current account deficit may be less than $4.5 billion as a result of lower-than-expected imports, potentially alleviating external financing concerns. Despite reduced imports and compression measures, Pakistani authorities expect economic growth of 3% to 3.5%, with inflation hovering around the official target of 21%. Read more: The Express Tribune
Exports to Middle East jump over 21pc
Exports to the Middle East increased by 21.38% in the first quarter of FY24, with demand from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait driving the increase. Saudi Arabia increased its imports from Pakistan by 29%, while the UAE increased its imports by 27.6%. Rice, bovine carcasses, textile materials, and garments are among Pakistan’s top exports to the Middle East. Read more: Dawn
Pakistan third top recipient of Chinese finance: study
According to AidData, a US-based international development research lab, Pakistan is the world’s third-largest recipient of Chinese development finance, with a portfolio of $70.3 billion between 2000 and 2021. According to the report, only 2% of China’s portfolio in Pakistan during this time period was in the form of grants, with the rest being in the form of loans. Read more: Dawn
Exports to China soar
According to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), Pakistan’s exports of goods and services to China increased by 26.42% in the first three months of the current fiscal year (2023-24) compared to the same period last year, reaching $633.374 million. Read more: The Express Tribune
Wednesday
Pakistan dismisses Ukraine arms deal
Pakistan has denied reports of arms-supply talks between its defence minister and Ukraine, emphasising that it does not supply or intends to supply arms to Ukraine. The Foreign Office spokesperson clarified that the topic was not discussed over the phone on November 7, 2023. This response comes after previous denials of reports alleging a weapons supply agreement with Ukraine in exchange for an IMF bailout, which Pakistan dismissed as false and fabricated. Read more: The Express Tribune
Pakistan eyes $600m Chinese loans
Pakistan is in advanced talks with two Chinese banks, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) and the Bank of China, to secure $600 million in loans to close a significant financing gap. The loans should be received by next month. This move is part of Pakistan’s strategy to secure funding from non-Chinese foreign banks following the successful conclusion of IMF talks, with the goal of improving the country’s credit rating. Read more: The Express Tribune
Bushra Bibi summoned in £190m NCA scandal
The National Accountability Bureau (NAB) has summoned Bushra Bibi, the wife of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Chairman Imran Khan, in connection with the £190 million National Crime Agency (NCA) scandal. The NAB has ordered Bushra Bibi to appear in front of the joint investigation team as an accused in the NCA scandal and to bring documents pertaining to Al Qadir University funds. Read more: Aitadal
Amid Pakistan terror attacks, US clarifies ‘no equipment left behind’ by its forces during Afghanistan pullout
The US State Department has stated unequivocally that no equipment was left behind by American forces during their withdrawal from Afghanistan that could be used by terrorists to target Pakistan. The announcement followed reports that Pakistani security forces had recovered US-made weapons from terrorists following the recent attack on the Mianwali Training Air Base. Read more: Pakistan Today
2 terrorists killed in intelligence-based operation in Chitral: ISPR
Security forces engaged in an intense exchange of fire with militants in Chitral district, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, during an intelligence-based operation near the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, killing two terrorists and injuring four others. The Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) reported the operation and stated that the surrounding areas are being sanitised in order to eliminate any other terrorists in the region. Read more: Dawn
Pakistan decides to extend stay of registered Afghan refugees
Pakistan has decided to grant officially registered Afghan refugees a six-month extension of their stay. Following a meeting of the National Action Plan (NAP) apex committee, the caretaker government made the decision. Read more: The Daily Pakistan
Thursday
PM urges ECO countries to push for ceasefire in Gaza
During the 16th ECO Summit in Tashkent, caretaker Prime Minister Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar emphasised the importance of revitalising the Economic Cooperation Organisation (ECO) through accelerated reforms. He lauded the ECO’s corridor-based approach to maximising potential, highlighting the operationalization of the Istanbul-Tehran-Islamabad corridor in particular. Kakar advocated for more border crossing points in the region to ease trade operations. He emphasised Afghanistan’s critical role in regional connectivity, and he backed strategic investments such as CASA 1000 and TAPI. Read more: Radio Pakistan
Pak-China to transform Khunjerab Border as all-weather trade route
Pakistan and China have agreed to turn the Khunjerab border into an all-weather trade route, marking a significant step forward in bilateral relations. The Khunjerab Pass, which was previously closed for four months each year due to harsh weather conditions, will now be open all year to boost bilateral trade. The Gilgit-Baltistan government is in charge of making the necessary arrangements. Read more: Pakistan Today
80 Indian fishermen released from jail
As a gesture of goodwill, the Pakistani government released 80 Indian fishermen from Malir District Jail, where they had been held for three to four years for fishing in Pakistani waters. The fishermen, including 17 Muslims, boarded the Allama Iqbal Express for Lahore, where they would be repatriated via the Wagah border. Read more: Dawn
Pakistan, Uzbekistan vow early finalisation of Strategic Partnership Agreement
During the 16th Economic Cooperation Organisation (ECO) Summit in Tashkent, Pakistan and Uzbekistan pledged to finalise the Strategic Partnership Agreement as soon as possible in order to improve regional economic integration. Anwaarul Haq Kakar, the caretaker prime minister, and Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev discussed expanding cooperation in the political, trade, economic, security, defence, and connectivity domains. Read more: The Daily Times PK
Pakistan, Saudi Arabia agree to expand media ties
Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have agreed to expand their collaboration in media, drama, and other fields. Caretaker Federal Minister for Information and Broadcasting Murtaza Solangi and Saudi Ambassador to Pakistan Nawaf Saeed Al Malki reached the decision during a meeting. They discussed speeding up the implementation of agreements in media and communications, as well as communication cooperation. Read more: The Daily Pakistan
Friday
PIB auction draws heavy investment at lower return
Pakistan’s recent Pakistan Investment Bonds (PIBs) auction demonstrated a significant shift in investment patterns among commercial banks and financial institutions, as they offered robust financing to the government at a fixed rate of return for three to ten-year bonds. The auction drew bids totaling Rs964 billion, exceeding the Rs160 billion target by 500%. The government accepted Rs246 billion in offers, anticipating a reduction in the policy rate, providing economic relief and fostering growth. Read more: The Express Tribune
Govt reveals plan to expel documented immigrants
Pakistan has announced plans to deport registered Afghan immigrants following the forced repatriation of undocumented immigrants. Jan Achakzai, the caretaker minister of Balochistan, stated that the move is in response to militants using Afghanistan as a base for terrorism in Pakistan. A threat alert forced the UNHCR team to postpone its visit to Khyber. Read more: Dawn
Surge in polio cases alarms health officials
Nine more environmental samples from six districts in Pakistan have tested positive for wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1), bringing the total number of cases in Pakistan to 64 in 2023. The virus-positive sewage samples were collected from districts such as Karachi, Chaman, Kohat, Peshawar, and Nowshera. Dr. Nadeem Jan, Federal Health Minister, expressed concern, emphasising the importance of polio vaccination in protecting children under the age of five from lifelong paralysis. Pakistan and Afghanistan are the world’s only polio endemic countries. Read more: Dawn
PPP to kick-start election campaign in Balochistan with rally
The Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) will launch its election campaign in Balochistan on November 30 with a large rally in Quetta commemorating the party’s 56th anniversary. PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari has directed that all necessary preparations be made for the event. Read more: Pakistan Today
Pakistan PM Kakar meets Palestine President Mahmoud Abbas ahead of OIC summit on Gaza
On the sidelines of the OIC’s 8th Extraordinary Summit, Pakistan’s Caretaker Prime Minister Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar met with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The leaders discussed the dire situation in occupied Palestine, condemning Israeli forces’ indiscriminate use of force, bombings, and resultant loss of lives. Read more: The Daily Pakistan
Saturday
Debt, liabilities soar to Rs78 trillion
Pakistan’s total debt and liabilities have increased by 26% in the last year to a new record level of Rs78 trillion, reaching an unsustainable level that may necessitate debt restructuring. According to the State Bank of Pakistan, the government has accumulated debt at a rate of 26%, averaging Rs44 billion per day since September of the previous year. The total debt includes liabilities worth Rs4.7 trillion. Read more: The Express Tribune
Caretaker KP Chief Minister Azam Khan passes away
Azam Khan, the caretaker chief minister of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, has died at the age of 83. Due to a severe stomach infection, he was rushed to Rehman Medical Institute in Peshawar, where he died from a cardiac arrest. Azam Khan, a former bureaucrat, was sworn in as interim CM in January of the same year. He previously served as KP finance minister and held various key positions in federal and provincial governments. Read more: The Daily Pakistan
Remittances jump to $2.5bn in October
According to the State Bank of Pakistan, overseas remittances to Pakistan increased by $255 million (11.5%) in October compared to September. Remittances, on the other hand, increased by 9.6% to $216 million in October 2022. Despite this monthly improvement, remittances for July-October FY24 were 13.3% lower than the same period last year, totaling $8.794 billion. Read more: Dawn
Another blow to Imran Khan as Asad Umar quits PTI, politics
Asad Umar, a senior Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) leader, has announced his permanent retirement from politics, dealing another blow to the party and its imprisoned leader, Imran Khan. In a social media post, the former finance minister, a close aide to Khan, expressed dissatisfaction with the party’s confrontational stance towards state institutions, which has resulted in serious clashes that are not in the best interests of the country. Read more: The Daily Pakistan
UAE realtors plan $25bn investment
Through the Association of Builders and Developers of Pakistan (ABAD), a Pakistani conglomerate based in the UAE, including real estate companies Almir, Habib Group, and Mark Stone, plans to invest $20-25 billion. The investment is intended to boost the construction industry by bringing prosperity and international standards to residential facilities. Read more: Dawn
PML-N team to meet MQM-P delegation today
In Karachi, a delegation from the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) will meet with Muttahida Qaumi Movement Pakistan (MQM-P) and Grand Democratic Alliance (GDA) leaders. The PML-N team will meet with the MQM-P at their Bahadurabad headquarters to discuss electoral alliances, seat adjustments, and future plans. Read more: Pakistan Today
Sunday
Prominent Balochistan businessman abducted
Haji Naseebullah Khan Achakzai, a Balochistan businessman and Pashtoonkhwa Milli Awami Party leader, was allegedly kidnapped near Quetta by unidentified gunmen. The incident occurred on the Quetta-Chaman national highway, with armed men transporting him to an unknown location. Balochistan’s caretaker information minister stated that investigations are underway and that authorities are actively addressing the issue. Read more: Dawn
PML-N entirely focused on Sindh: Khawaja Saad Rafique
The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) has shifted its focus entirely to Sindh, where it hopes to form a coalition ahead of the general election on February 8. Leaders of the PML-N, including Khawaja Saad Rafique, have expressed concern about rural dissatisfaction in Sindh. They are meeting with political parties in Karachi to form a coalition in a province that has traditionally been dominated by the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP). Read more: The News PK
‘179 IBOs conducted’: CTD lassoes five terrorists belong to TTP, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi
The Punjab Counter-Terrorism Department (CTD) announced the arrest of five suspected terrorists affiliated with banned groups, Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, during 179 intelligence-based operations in Sahiwal, Pakpattan, Bahawalpur, and Rawalpindi. The alleged terrorists allegedly planned to sabotage the province, specifically targeting critical infrastructure. The CTD recovered explosives, grenades, improvised explosive devices, detonators, and other items from the suspects. Read more: Pakistan Today
Amidst IMF review, PTI blames ‘N’ for crisis
In the midst of the International Monetary Fund’s review of a $710 million tranche, Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) has issued a White Paper blaming the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) for the economic crisis. According to the White Paper, the PML-N left an energy sector shambles, with the PTI inheriting a Rs1.6 trillion circular debt. It emphasises the IMF’s tough conditions, which led to the PTI government raising taxes and reducing the fiscal deficit. Read more: Dawn
Decypher Report Summaries- Pakistan
Afghanistan New Drug Laws Have Meant A Loss of US$ 1 Billion, but breaking the law could be a serious business the penal documents reveal.
The drugs law was agreed upon in a meeting chaired by Mullah Haibutullah on 28 August 2023 with the head of the Supreme Council, five provincial governors and other members of the Taliban leadership in attendance. It was a meeting dominated by southern Pashtoons.
Circular available here: Penal Code of Narcotics
Pakistan Climate Investment Report 2023 by The US Department of State
The economic state of Pakistan is precarious due to numerous challenges such as fiscal and external deficits, energy and food scarcity, and high corruption rates, which impede investing in the country despite its liberal foreign direct investment policy. Investors deal with concerns like import dependency, high inflation, bureaucratic hassles, inconsistencies in law, political instability, and security threats.
The 2023 Investment Climate Statements highlights the United States as a major FDI source, with successful operations across fast-moving consumer goods, agribusiness, ICT, and others. Pakistan, plagued by security challenges such as terrorist threats and kidnappings, seeks inward investment, particularly in renewable energy, agribusiness, ICT, and industrial sectors. Corruption is persistent, ranking the country 140 out of 180 in Transparency International’s 2022 Corruption Perceptions Index. Bribes are commonly used within various government levels due to gaps in accountability and enforcement penalties.
The political instability, marked with frequent leadership changes, creates an unpredictable business environment, affecting investor confidence. Legal regulations fluctuate across federal, provincial, and local government levels, posing difficulties for businesses that operate across regions. Furthermore, while the higher courts are largely credible, lower courts often face corruption, inefficiency, and pressures.
The report also points out weaknesses surrounding Intellectual Property Rights. The Intellectual Property Office, established in 2005 to consolidate control over trademarks, patents, and copyrights, has seen leadership instability, limited resources, and neglect—hindering IP rights enforcement. Efforts are underway to enhance the IPO’s efficiency, including amendments to copyright and patent laws and the Trademarks Amendment Act 2023.
Finally, the report addresses land titling issues; despite some provinces digitizing their land records, problems concerning property rights determination and recording of mortgages and liens remain. Overall, the report indicates that while there are profitable opportunities present, potential investors should be prepared to navigate through numerous challenges in the Pakistani business environment. Report available here: 2023 Investment Climate Statements: Pakistan
Stars & Stripes: Taliban success emboldens Pakistani militants, and deadly attacks surge
Operating as a group distinct from the Afghan Taliban, the TTP had made deep inroads into the country at the time, imposing sharia law in isolated valleys and staging deadly bombings. Pakistan could now be heading into a new such cycle of violence, residents in the northwestern part of the country fear.
During the first half of this year, militant attacks throughout Pakistan went up 80 percent, according to the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies, with the Pakistani Taliban suspected of being behind most of them.
“People are joining our ranks in a way we’ve never seen before,” one of the group’s commanders, Omar Mukarram Khorasani, said in an interview.
“It’s not only that TTP is taking shelter in Afghanistan, but also that some Afghans are joining their ranks,” said Asif Durrani, Pakistan’s special representative on Afghanistan. Fourteen of 24 major terrorist attacks carried out this year in Pakistan have been by Afghan nationals, Pakistani officials say.
The Taliban-run Afghan government rejects those claims, saying that its actions in the wake of the takeover prevented weapons from being looted. It has also rejected responsibility for the Sept. 6 attack, saying it did not originate in Afghanistan. “The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan does not allow any such groups to use Afghan territory,” said Zabihullah Mujahid, a spokesman for the Afghan Taliban-run government.
In private, the Afghan government says it has detained or relocated at least some TTP fighters, according to Pakistani officials. “We have been assured by the Afghan authorities that they will not allow Afghan soil to be used against Pakistan,” Durrani said.
Pakistani officials said they think that the Afghan government’s reluctance to confirm that they’re cooperating with them may reflect the pressure Afghan leaders face from others in the government who are skeptical of Pakistan and see the Pakistani Taliban as ideological counterparts. Read more: The Washington Post
Decypher Opinion
Why Infant Mortality Rate Is High in Pakistan?
With one of the highest infant mortality rates globally, Pakistan faces significant healthcare challenges. As of 2023, the infant mortality rate in Pakistan stands at 56 per 1000 live births, a stark contrast to the global rate of 26 deaths per 1000 live births.
Premature births and congenital disorders, including heart, lung, and neural tube defects, pose significant threats to infant survival. Additionally, issues surrounding vaccine accessibility intensify the situation, with merely 58% of children susceptible to preventable diseases receiving the required immunizations. Such vaccine hesitancy, primarily provoked by dispersions and sporadic aggressions towards vaccine providers, amplifies the spread of preventable diseases.
Contextual hurdles like unsafe deliveries, under-par breastfeeding practices, and deficit neonatal care significantly contribute to the pronounced infant mortality in Pakistan’s rural regions. Starkly, around half of all Pakistani births take place at home, with unqualified midwives or relatives handling 72% of these situations. Socioeconomic factors are equally grave influencers. Poverty, deficient sanitation, and women’s low education levels are among the leading antagonists, cultivating a terrain of food insecurity, malnutrition, substandard living conditions, and healthcare inaccessibility. Consequently, these drivers elevate the rate of infant mortality.
Underpinning these issues is Pakistan’s beleaguered healthcare system. Battling resource constraints, understaffing, and insufficient healthcare services, especially in isolated rural areas, the system struggles. The ratio of healthcare providers is alarmingly low, with only 1.1 physicians and 0.6 midwives or nurses per 1000 individuals, emphasizing the healthcare crisis. Even though expenditure on healthcare has increased over the years. As of 2017, the supply of critical healthcare infrastructures such as maternity and children’s health units, hospitals, and basic health units were significantly low; 731 maternal and child health units, around 1201 hospitals, roughly 683 basic health units, with a total bed capacity marginally above 123,000. Additionally, the paucity of pediatric intensive care units, which are crucial for child healthcare, presents another considerable challenge. These units are not only scarce in number but also suffer from understaffing. There is also a shortage of crucial facilities like thermal care and adequate referral systems for seriously ill infants. Adding to these issues is the inconvenient distance between many healthcare facilities and residential areas, exacerbating the infant mortality rates. To address these challenges, Pakistan’s government has initiated programs like the Ehsas initiative to support low-income families and the Expanded Programme on Immunization. However, these steps fall short against the state’s health deficit reflected in health expenditure amounting to merely 1.4% of the GDP, significantly below the World Health Organization’s recommended 6%.
Addressing this health crisis demands a holistic and innovative approach simultaneously focusing on healthcare, socioeconomic issues, and essential investments. Prioritizing healthcare disparities between rural and urban regions, strengthening immunization programs, enhancing childbirth safety, and promoting breastfeeding practices are pivotal pathways for transformation. Additionally, comprehensive strategies to battle poverty, bridge educational gaps, and improve sanitation are indispensable. Over and above, substantial investments to upgrade healthcare infrastructure and boost healthcare workforce must be a national priority.
In conclusion, surmounting Pakistan’s infant mortality rate requires concerted, long-term efforts from all sectors. Significant advancements can be achieved by implementing comprehensive strategies that address not only immediate healthcare needs but also underlying socioeconomic determinants of health. This includes investing in healthcare infrastructure, incentivizing physician and nurse training programs, promoting safer childbirth practices, improving immunization coverage, and encouraging proper breastfeeding practices. It’s not just about healthcare—the country must also commit to alleviating poverty, improving educational disparity, providing clean water, and ensuring better sanitation facilities. These measures, combined with efforts to raise health awareness among the population, are essential in curbing the infant mortality rate in Pakistan. Furthermore, in order to effectively reduce infant mortality in Pakistan, it is crucial to address the issue of maternal education and empowerment. As mentioned in one of the sources, the education level of both mothers and fathers has a significant impact on infant mortality rates. Therefore, investing in education and promoting women’s empowerment should be key components of any strategy aimed at improving child health outcomes.
Infant Mortality rates in South Asia 2023
What is TJP The Group Behind 4th November Attack?
A group called Tehreek-e-Jihad Pakistan took credit for the 4th November attack on the M M Alam base in Mianwali, that the Pakistan army claims to have foiled.
“No damage has been done to any of the PAF’s functional operational assets, while only some damage was done to three already phased-out non-operational aircraft during the attack,”Tehreek-e-Jihad Pakistan is an unknown or relatively unknown terror outfit. It is seen as a part of increasing security troubles for Pakistan being sheltered by the next-door neighbour the Afghanistan Taliban. “The TJP’s structure and affiliations remain somewhat ambiguous,” a security official in Islamabad told Nikkei Asia, requesting anonymity because he is not authorized to speak to the media. “But the group has become a new and significant concern for the Pakistani military after the TTP, Baloch ethno-separatist groups, and ISIS-K,” the regional affiliate of the Islamic State group.
The Nikkei reported that Centre for Research and Security Studies, an Islamabad-based think tank, in late September reported an alarming trend: Losses among Pakistani security forces reached an eight-year high in the first nine months of 2023. At least 386 security personnel, including 137 members of the army, were killed during this period, the CRSS said.In the election season terror attacks are going to intensify and are going to feature in the South Asian country and perhaps beyond.
Infographic
Fact of the Week!!
Bangladesh De/Cypher
13 Nov, 2023
Top Stories From The Week: Bangladesh
Monday
Govt okays $1.3 billion joint venture with Denmark for 500mw wind power project
Bangladesh’s government has approved a $1.3 billion joint venture with Denmark for a 500 MW wind power project off the coast of Cox’s Bazar. Without a tender, the offshore wind project could be a significant step forward in technology transfer and job creation. Read more: The Daily Observer BD
Sheikh Hasina’s election rally will start from Sylhet: Quader
Obaidul Quader, general secretary of the Awami League, announced that Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina will begin her election campaign in Sylhet, where she will meet with various groups. Quader also accused the BNP’s acting chairman, Tarique Rahman, of orchestrating protests from London, urging police to be cautious and avoid harassing innocent people while performing their duties. Read more: Daily Bangladesh
Inflation hits five-month high in October despite steps
Despite government efforts, inflation in Bangladesh rose to a five-month high of 9.93 percent in October, with rural areas experiencing statistically double-digit inflation of 9.99 percent. The urban rate rose by 48 basis points to 9.72 percent. For the third consecutive month, food inflation remained above 12%, reaching 12.56 percent, while non-food inflation rose 48 basis points to 8.3 percent. The average inflation rate for 2023 is 9.5 percent, well above the budgetary target of 6%. Read more: The Daily Star
BNP again announces 48hrs nationwide blockade from Wednesday
The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has declared a 48-hour nationwide blockade beginning Wednesday in order to continue their demand to depose the government. BNP Senior Joint Secretary General Ruhul Kabir Rizvi made the announcement at a press conference in Dhaka, alongside allies Ganatantrik Mancha and the Liberal Democratic Party. This comes after the end of the second phase of a 48-hour blockade initiated by the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami, with the BNP previously enforcing a 72-hour blockade beginning on October 31 in response to attacks on their grand rally in Dhaka on October 28. Read more: Daily Sun
228 platoons of BGB deployed across Bangladesh to maintain law and order
To maintain law and order amid security concerns, 228 Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) platoons have been deployed across the country, with 27 platoons initially stationed in Dhaka and surrounding areas. The increased security measures come after deadly violence during anti-government protests by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and a strong response from the ruling Awami League, raising concerns reminiscent of previous security challenges. Read more: BD News 24
Tuesday
UN review on human rights: Bangladesh govt prepares to highlight efforts
On November 13, the United Nations Human Rights Council’s Universal Periodic Review (UPR) Working Group will conduct its fourth review of Bangladesh’s human rights record. The country, one of 14 under review during the current UPR session, intends to highlight its efforts since the last review in 2018 to strengthen democratic institutions and accountability. Read more: The Daily Sun
US closely monitoring electoral environment in Bangladesh
The US Department of State is keeping a close eye on the electoral environment in Bangladesh ahead of the upcoming general elections in January. The principal deputy spokesperson, Vedant Patel, emphasised the seriousness with which the United States views any incidents of violence related to the elections. The United States is urging the government, opposition parties, civil society, and other stakeholders to work together for the benefit of the Bangladeshi people. Read more: New Age
RMG workers reject 56pc pay rise
Bangladesh raised the minimum monthly wage for its four million garment workers by 56.25%, increasing it from Tk 8,300 ($75) to Tk 12,500 ($113). However, unions, who wanted the figure nearly tripled to Tk 23,000, immediately rejected the decision. The garment industry accounts for 85% of Bangladesh’s $55 billion in annual exports, but working conditions, particularly for women, are difficult. Protests and strikes broke out, resulting in clashes with police, factory closures, and violent acts. Unions point to inflation and a weakening currency, while employers offered a 25% rise. International brands have called for a “successful conclusion” to wage talks. Read more: Prothom Alo
We’ve expressed concern about large number of arrests in Bangladesh: UN spokesman
The UN has expressed concern about the large number of recent arrests in Bangladesh. The UN secretary-general’s spokesman, Stéphane Dujarric, addressed the issue in a press briefing, emphasising the UN’s hope for fair and violence-free elections in Bangladesh. Dujarric mentioned the UN’s concern about the arrests in response to the Bangladesh Nationalist Party’s (BNP) non-participation in the Election Commission’s dialogue on November 4, but did not provide details on the party’s absence from the dialogue. Read more: The Daily Star
IFJ condemns attack on journalists during BNP’s Oct 28 rally
The International Federation of Journalists (IFJ) has condemned the attacks on journalists that occurred on October 28 in front of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party’s (BNP) Nayapaltan office. Approximately 30 journalists were assaulted while covering clashes between police, BNP supporters, and the coalition led by the ruling Awami League Party. The International Federation of Journalists (IFJ) has urged authorities to investigate all incidents of harassment and violence against Bangladeshi journalists. Read more: The South Asian Times
Wednesday
Forex reserves dip to $19.5 billion
Bangladesh’s gross foreign exchange reserves fell to $19.5 billion after a payment to the Asian Clearing Union, according to IMF guidelines, from $23.25 billion on August 31. Despite the Bangladesh Bank’s conventional valuation of reserves at $25.21 billion, a significant reduction occurred due to $1.17 billion in import payments to the ACU. Read more: New Age
PM returns home from KSA
After attending the International Conference on Women in Islam and performing Umrah, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina returned home from Saudi Arabia. During her visit, she participated in religious rituals in Medina and Mecca, attended the conference, and met with top OIC officials and member countries. The Prime Minister also attended the opening of the Women in Islam Exhibition as well as a banquet dinner in her honour. Read more: The Daily Observer
US condemns violence against protesting workers in Bangladesh
The US has condemned recent violence against workers protesting in Bangladesh, as well as the criminalization of legitimate worker and trade union activities. The United States urged the Bangladeshi government to protect workers’ right to peaceful protest, investigate false criminal charges levelled against workers and labour leaders, and reconsider the minimum wage decision through a three-way process to address economic pressures faced by workers. Read more: Dhaka Tribune
UN rights chief urges PM to let Khaleda Zia receive treatment abroad
Volker Turk, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, urged Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to allow opposition leader Khaleda Zia to travel abroad for urgent medical treatment. Since her release from prison in 2020, Zia, the leader of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), has been effectively under house arrest. Read more: Prothom Alo
48 BGB platoons deployed in Dhaka, adjoining districts
Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) platoons were deployed in Dhaka and surrounding districts to increase security at garment factories as a 48-hour nationwide blockade called by the BNP, Jamaat, and other opposition parties began. Read more: Jago News 24
Women entrepreneurs can get collateral-free loan up to Tk50 lakh
The Bangladesh Bank has launched a collateral-free loan guarantee scheme to assist women entrepreneurs, allowing them to borrow up to Tk50 lakh with the central bank’s backing. The scheme covers both working capital and term loans, and there are no fees for the guarantee. Banks and financial institutions will pay a 1% annual fee for the guarantees. The initiative aims to increase loans to women entrepreneurs, promote economic activity, and improve agricultural industries and export diversification. The central bank has set a target of 15% of total SME sector loans to women entrepreneurs by 2024. Read more: The Business Standard
Thursday
Bangladesh’s human rights record review on Monday
The United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) will review Bangladesh’s human rights record for the fourth time on November 13 in Geneva. During the examination, Law Minister Anisul Huq will lead the country’s delegation. Read more: The Daily Sun
China hopes Bangladesh polls to follow constitution, laws: Yao
Yao Wen, China’s Ambassador to Bangladesh, expressed China’s hope that Bangladesh’s general elections would follow the constitution and laws, emphasising that it is a domestic matter. He emphasised China’s confidence in Bangladesh’s future and bilateral relations. Yao reaffirmed China’s non-interference principle, expressed opposition to external interference, and expressed hope for the safety of Chinese citizens and property in Bangladesh. Read more: Somoy News
Election at any cost, schedule soon: CEC
Chief Election Commissioner Kazi Habibul Awal reiterated the critical importance of holding the 12th parliamentary elections on time, emphasising that the poll schedule must be announced soon. He stated that the election must take place before the specified date of January 29, emphasising the commission’s determination to organise the election on time and in the prescribed manner. Read more: Prothom Alo
Over 100 RMG factories shut amid wage protest
Following clashes between workers and police, over 100 ready-made garment (RMG) factories in Gazipur and Ashulia suspended production indefinitely. Workers clashed with authorities, demanding a minimum monthly wage of Tk 23,000. Many factories used Section 13(1) of the Labour Act to keep workers unpaid during the suspension. Read more: New Age
‘PM still wants all parties join in JS polls’
Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan Kamal stated that the government, including Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, is still working to ensure that all political parties participate in the upcoming parliamentary elections. Despite his efforts, he criticised the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) for engaging in “envy politics,” citing their tendency to block streets and commit violent acts. Read more: Bangladesh Posts
Friday
RMG workers must accept new wage
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina urged readymade garment (RMG) workers to accept the recently fixed wage by the RMG sector wage board, warning of potential job losses and urging against street protests. The wage board had set Tk 12,500 as the minimum wage, a figure that workers contested, demanding Tk 23,000. Read more: The Daily Star
8 Canadian MPs send letter to PM Hasina on fair election
The Canada-Bangladesh Parliamentary Friendship Group sent a letter to Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina urging free, fair, and peaceful elections in Bangladesh in January 2024. They expressed hope that the government would protect free expression, prevent voting irregularities, and protect all citizens, regardless of political affiliation. The letter emphasised the importance of active participation in the electoral process by all eligible Bangladeshi citizens. Read more: Rising BD
EC determined to hold polls despite several concerns
Despite concerns about the political situation, Bangladesh’s Election Commission (EC) is determined to hold the upcoming election within the timeframe prescribed. Following completion of preparations, the EC plans to announce the election schedule soon. Following a meeting with the president, Chief Election Commissioner Kazi Habibul Awal stated that the 12th parliamentary election must take place before January 29, with a deadline approaching. Read more: Prothom Alo
Rohingya repatriation before polls, hopes China
Yao Wen, China’s Ambassador to Bangladesh, is optimistic about Rohingya repatriation beginning before Bangladesh’s national elections. He emphasises international collaboration, noting that Rohingyas cannot live permanently in Bangladesh and calls for a collaborative effort to find a long-term solution. While acknowledging the lengthy nature of the process, Wen hopes to implement the pilot project before elections. Read more: Somoy News
Delhi Has No Comment On Arrest Of Opposition Figures In BD
India has refrained from directly commenting on the arrests of opposition figures in Bangladesh, citing its respect for the country’s democratic process. During a routine briefing, Arindam Bagchi, spokesperson for the Indian Foreign Ministry, stated that India had not issued any formal statements on the situation, preferring to keep its views private. Bagchi emphasised that India does not comment on other countries’ internal policies, and Bangladesh’s electoral process is considered an internal matter. Read more: Shampratik Deshkal
Saturday
1,200 BNP-Jamaat men sued in 17 cases during blockades in Sylhet
During the 12-day countrywide blockade imposed by the BNP and other like-minded parties, approximately 1,200 BNP-Jamaat-e-Islami leaders and activists in Sylhet were charged in 17 cases, resulting in 50 arrests. The blockades were put in place following clashes between BNP members and law enforcement on October 28, which resulted in the death of one police officer and numerous injuries. Read more: Dhaka Tribune
OHCHR observation on violence not fact-based: 81 eminent citizens
A group of 81 prominent citizens in Bangladesh issued a joint statement expressing concerns about the accuracy and objectivity of information presented in a recent press briefing on political protests in Bangladesh by the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR). They disputed some of the observations in the OHCHR statement, claiming they were not supported by facts. Read more: Prothom Alo
Chinese envoy’s remark on polls doesn’t reflect people’s aspirations: BNP
The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has criticised Chinese Ambassador Yao Wen’s recent comments on Bangladesh’s upcoming elections, claiming that they do not reflect the people’s aspirations. Ruhul Kabir Rizvi of the Bangladesh National Party urged China to consider the desires and interests of the Bangladeshi people, emphasising the importance of a free, fair, inclusive, and credible election under a neutral government. Read more: The Daily Observer BD
Amnesty urges UN to make govt accountable for rights violations
Amnesty International has urged the UN to hold the Bangladeshi government accountable for human rights violations in advance of the general election. Since the 2018 Universal Periodic Review, the organisation has expressed concern about the deteriorating human rights situation, including 466 reported deaths in Bangladesh during an anti-drug campaign. Read more: New Age
Sunday
10 dengue patients die, 1,748 hospitalised
Dengue has claimed 10 lives in Bangladesh in the last 24 hours, bringing the total death toll to 1,476. During this time, 1,748 new dengue patients were admitted to hospitals across the country, with 351 cases in Dhaka alone. In 2023, Bangladesh reported 2,91,832 dengue-positive cases, with 2,84,173 recoveries. Read more: Somoy News
3-member EU team arrives today to assess labour reforms
A three-member European Union delegation led by Paola Pampaloni is in Dhaka for five days to assess Bangladesh’s labor-sector reform progress. The team will meet with representatives from trade unions, civil society organisations, and the foreign affairs, commerce, and labour ministries. The visit coincides with protests and political blockades by readymade garment workers for better pay. Read more: The Daily Observer BD
Foreign debt repayment pressure mounts
Bangladesh is under increasing pressure to service its debt, with the current fiscal year seeing a record principal loan repayment of more than $2 billion, which is expected to rise to $2.9 billion and $3.31 billion in the next two years. Read more: The Business Standard
Decypher Report Summaries – Bangladesh
On the Horizon Report: Potential Conflict Scenarios in Bangladesh from Oct 2023 to Mar 2023
The recently published “On the Horizon” report provides a clear and accessible snapshot of potential conflicts and crises that may arise over the next three to six months. In particular, it flags serious impending challenges in Bangladesh from October 2023 to March 2024.
Among these challenges, fraught political tension between the ruling government and the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party is expected to peak, potentially culminating in a violent election in January 2024. Furthermore, despite an ostensibly reached ceasefire, the report stresses the persisting instability in the southeastern Chittagong Hill Tracts region. This instability could stem from the threat posed by new Islamist groups or a possible reactivation of dormant insurgencies.
The report also underscores the deteriorating situation in the Rohingya refugee camps, where an uptick in violence between criminal and armed groups is further complicating the process of repatriation. When paired with the ongoing issue of underfunded aid, these tensions might incite refugees, driven by desperation, to join criminal gangs and armed groups, thereby escalating the volatile situation.
As per the report, an overarching chaos related to the elections could provoke a military intervention, substantially increasing the likelihood of violence during the voting period. This comprehensive overview serves as an urgent call to action for global conflict prevention efforts, particularly in the context of Bangladesh’s impending crises.
Report available here: On the Horizon October 2023 Report
Economic Growth Outlook in Bangladesh 2023 – 2024
Growth in Bangladesh moderated in fiscal year 2023 (FY2023) due to various factors such as high input prices, energy shortages, floods, cyclones, and faltering domestic and external demand. However, growth is expected to be sustained by rising exports, higher consumption due to growing remittances, and increased government investment.
The growth forecast for FY2024 remains unchanged from the April projection. It is expected that growth will be supported by economic recovery in the euro area, leading to continued export growth. Import growth is also expected to return to positive territory due to increased demand for export-related intermediates and government imports.
Inflation in Bangladesh exceeded the April forecast in FY2023 due to rising energy and food prices. However, it is expected to ease in FY2024 as global nonfuel commodity prices fall, monetary policy gradually tightens, and crop production improves. The ADO mentions that broad money growth in Bangladesh increased to 10.5% in FY2023 from 9.4% in FY2022. The document states that the industry sector in Bangladesh experienced a decline in growth in FY2023. This decline was mainly due to reduced export demand from advanced countries and domestic power and energy shortages. Large-scale manufacturing production growth also decreased during this period.
The Bangladesh Bank, the central bank of Bangladesh, has implemented various measures and policies to support the economy. These include increasing the policy interest rate, adopting a single market-driven exchange rate, and implementing a new lending rate framework. The central bank has also taken steps to tighten monetary policy and control inflation. Additionally, the document mentions that the government aims to achieve a ratio of revenue to GDP and expenditure to GDP through budgetary measures.
The document mentions that the government of Bangladesh has set ambitious targets for revenue collection and expenditure in its FY2024 budget. The government aims to achieve a revenue-to-GDP ratio of 10.0% and an expenditure-to-GDP ratio of 15.2%, resulting in a fiscal deficit of 5.2% of GDP.
The government has also implemented measures to support economic recovery, such as increasing capital expenditure and implementing structural reforms. Additionally, the government has taken steps to address issues related to taxation, accounting methods, depreciation rules, and alternative dispute resolution provisions.
Decypher Opinion
“Beyond Borders: Dengue’s Unusual Rise in Bangladesh and Its Connection to the Global Pandemic”
Dengue is caused by a virus, similar to that of COVID-19 (a single stranded RNA virus) and unlike COVID-19, it is transmitted by mosquitos (the Aedes species to be specific). Dengue is endemic in most of south Asia and south-east Asia but is prevalent in over 100 countries with greater than 100 million cases recorded annually, accounting for 100-25,000 deaths.
With this backdrop, if we turn our eyes to Bangladesh, we see an unprecedented number of cases recorded in 2023, crossing the two-lakh mark by October 2023. What is more alarming is the number of deaths! Over 1000 deaths have been reported in the first 9 months of the year. To put it in perspective, 95,000 cases of Dengue have been reported by the national Center for Vector Borne Diseases Control of India. The number of deaths is yet to cross the hundred-mark. But what is worth noting is the states adjacent to Bangladesh, such as Bengal, Assam and Orissa have recorded higher number of cases of Dengue as well. However, mortality rate has remained low.
Dengue is largely a mild infection in the majority, caused by one of the four serotypes or strains. The complexity arises out of how the individual immune system reacts to the virus. Thus, in some it settles down with mild fever and it others it overwhelms the human organ system and causes the circulatory system to collapse with or without uncontrolled bleeding, called the Dengue Shock Syndrome. Bangladesh encounters a surge in Dengue cases in the latter half of the year following the rains, like all its neighbouring countries- so what went amiss this year.
Perhaps, the mystery lies in the recent pandemic and our response to it. While, the entire world focused on one infection and its aftermath, with isolation, seclusion and universal vaccination, the human system probably lost its natural rhythm of dealing with existing pathogens which have disrupted us seasonally or perennially. Continued exposure to numerous viruses at random from early childhood primes the immune system of an otherwise healthy individual to ward them off without much of a problem. As the paranoia of COVID-19 ebbed, the United States witnessed a surge in Respiratory Syncytial Virus in children with serious morbidity and mortality, beyond the usual. The same was witnessed with adenovirus in children – a virus usually asymptomatic in healthy children with strong cross-reactivity between strains, indicating that the body mounts immunity against most strains through a single infection. These catastrophes were representative of how seclusion from the natural environment in the early life can turn the innocuous infections to monstrous ones.
Where does Dengue fit in this paradigm? Unlike adenovirus for example, there is no cross protection between the four strains of the Dengue virus. World-wide, Dengue was at its lowest in 2020, with shutdowns and lockdowns, like the other viruses mentioned above. Non-exposure to viruses, which are endemic can turn them to a lethal agent as we had seen with others. But even if we accept the hypothesis of the vulnerability of an unexposed or immature immune system to otherwise common pathogens, what accounts for the population of Bangladesh being more vulnerable to fatal Dengue infections! It could be the strain of the virus- one not encountered in recent times. Leaving the young more vulnerable.
However, there is something unique about how Dengue virus responds to our immune system, called antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE). This was realised with our first attempts at immunization against Dengue. In individuals who were not previously infected with Dengue were paradoxically found to be more susceptible to the virus after the vaccination. A recent study from a research institute in India have shown that antibodies generated against COVID-19 through vaccination could worsen Dengue infection based on the same principles of ADE narrated above. If that be the case then why not India, which has the highest vaccination coverage! Could this be related to the type of vaccines used? While India used two vaccines exclusively, none being mRNA vaccines, Bangladesh had employed both Russian and Chinese vaccines along with mRNA vaccines. Despite the short-term efficacy against COVID-19, concerns have been raised about the effect of mRNA vaccines on the broader immune repertoire amongst other things. While, the usual public health measures should remain under scrutiny and be optimised, we conclude by asking why Bangladesh bore the brunt of Dengue cases in 2023.
Infographic
Bangladesh has the second-highest proportion of women in parliament in South Asia, with 21% of seats held by women.
Fact of the Week!
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