Data Dive – Decypher
Asia Headlines: Quick Recap
Strong quake prompts tsunami warning for Japan’s western coast
A powerful earthquake measuring a 7.6 on the scale — the strongest on the scale — rocked central Japan on Monday, prompting a tsunami warning for a large swath of the country’s western coast. Alarms have gone off in South Korea, as well.
China, US leaders Xi and Biden exchange greetings on 45th anniversary of ties
China’s President Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden exchanged congratulatory messages on Monday, the first day of 2024 and also the 45th anniversary of their official ties. Chinese state broadcaster CCTV reported the exchange on Monday morning.
Putin lauds Russian unity in New Year’s address amid Ukraine war
Russian President Vladimir Putin praised Russia’s “united society” in his prerecorded New Year’s address to the nation, the country’s state news agencies reported Sunday. Putin addressed Russians in a video that ran under four minutes long, significantly shorter than the New Year’s speech he gave last year, according to state news agency RIA Novosti. Millions of people were expected to watch the new address when it airs on TV as each Russian time zone region counts down the final minutes of 2023 on Sunday.
Taiwan’s Tsai calls for peaceful coexistence with China
Taiwan’s leader called for peaceful coexistence with Beijing, just hours after Chinese President Xi Jinping reiterated his ambition to “reunify” with the democratic island.
Higher rice prices keep inflation simmering in Asia
Inflation continues to simmer in many Asian countries largely due to higher prices of rice and other food items. Prices of rice, a regional staple, have soared due to poor harvests caused by extreme weather. Prices are unlikely to come down soon, as many rice exporters have grown reluctant to sell it abroad, giving priority to domestic demand.
Xi Pledges to Strengthen Economic Recovery After ‘Tough’ Year
Chinese President Xi delivers the annual new year address and acknowledges that 2023 was hard for some Chinese citizens, a rare acknowledgement of economic headwinds that the country faces.
Israel prepares for a long war in Gaza
As 2023 draws to a close, Israel’s forces in the Gaza Strip are deployed across the territory to their farthest extent. An armoured division of the Israel Defence Forces (idf) is operating in the quarter of Gaza city where Israeli intelligence believes the last intact battalion of Hamas’s armed force is holding out. Farther south, seven brigade combat teams have converged on Khan Younis, Gaza’s second city, where Hamas’s leadership and most of nearly 130 Israeli hostages are assumed to be. Other brigades are attacking Hamas strongholds in towns across central and southern Gaza. Israeli commanders acknowledge behind the scenes that these may be the last wide-scale offensives of the war.
Myanmar’s leader co-chairs China-backed Mekong summit
Myanmar’s leader has chaired a major regional summit for the first time since the military took power in February 2021, in a meeting that affirmed closer ties with China. Myanmar Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing and Chinese Premier Li Qiang co-chaired Monday’s Lancang-Mekong Cooperation leaders meeting. “Lancang” is the river’s name in China.
US Kills Houthi Rebels After Attack on Maersk Ship in the Red Sea
The US said it received a second distress call in less than 24 hours from container ship Maersk Hangzhou in the Red Sea, and its helicopters were fired upon by Houthi rebels as it rendered help.
India formally asks Pakistan to extradite Mumbai attack suspect Hafiz Saeed
India has formally requested that Pakistan extradite the 2008 Mumbai attacks suspect Hafiz Saeed for trial in India, according to New Delhi’s Ministry of External Affairs. “We have conveyed a request along with relevant supporting documents to the government of Pakistan,” ministry spokesperson Arindam Bagchi told reporters in a briefing on Friday.
January 2024: What’s Happening
Bangladesh election🗳️: Asia’s first major election of the year will take place in Bangladesh, where people will cast ballots for a new parliament on Jan. 7.
Taiwan elections🗳️: Voting for Taiwan’s presidential and legislative elections will take place on Jan. 13. The race to succeed President Tsai Ing-wen, who steps down in May, will test the resolve of the Taiwanese in the face of an overbearing China, cognitive warfare and election interference. Lai Ching-te, Taiwan’s vice president from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, is the frontrunner, followed by Hou Yu-ih from the China-leaning Kuomintang and a third candidate, Ko Wen-je, of the Taiwan People’s Party.
Philippine president visits Vietnam✈️: Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s state visit to Vietnam is scheduled amid rising tensions in the South China Sea, with both nations challenged by China’s claims. The visit will beef up bilateral ties and potentially explore deeper economic collaboration that moves beyond a longstanding rice trade relationship.
Philippines’ first sovereign wealth fund set to start operation:
The Maharlika Investment Fund, a controversial initiative meant to propel national development, is expected to be launched in the first quarter of 2024 after encountering criticism and regulatory turbulence. Though it was proposed in 2022, the new government stalled its rollout till now.
Af-Pak De/Cypher
1 Jan, 2024
Top Stories from Pakistan
Punjab grapples with unprecedented gas, power crises
Punjab, Pakistan faces an unprecedented gas and power crisis, with historic shortages causing inconvenience and disrupting industries. The severe situation underscores the need for urgent short-term solutions and long-term energy infrastructure development. Read more: Pakistan Today
Submission of nomination forms remains uphill task for PTI
PTI faces hurdles filing nomination papers for Feb 8 elections, citing harassment. Despite setbacks, the party submits papers for many candidates but seeks relief from the Peshawar High Court over the denial of its election symbol. Read more: Dawn
Pakistan strives to secure $1b for Bhasha Dam
Pakistan is seeking $1 billion urgently for the Diamer Basha Dam, requiring a total of $3.5 billion for financial closure. The recent agreement with Kuwait is expected to help raise capital, addressing long-standing challenges in securing funding for the strategic dam. Read more: The Express Tribune
Baloch protesters give govt 7-day ultimatum to meet demands
Baloch protesters in Islamabad issue a seven-day ultimatum to the government for UN-led investigations into rights violations and demand the elimination of enforced disappearances. Read more: Dawn
Election 2024: Interim govt allocates Rs 17 bln for security
The Election Commission of Pakistan allocates Rs 17 billion for security in the upcoming 2024 general elections. A meeting discusses polling day security arrangements, revealing a shortfall of 400,000 police officials. Read more: ARY News
Imran Khan’s assets surged by over Rs277m in five years
Imran Khan’s assets increased by over Rs277.2 million in the last five years, reaching a total value of more than Rs315.9 million. Read more: The News International
Soldier martyred, eight terrorists killed in three encounters
In separate incidents, eight terrorists were killed across Pakistan. In Bajaur, three terrorists attempting infiltration were neutralised. Another operation in Balochistan’s Awaran district led to the killing of five terrorists, with the recovery of arms and explosives. Read more: The Express Tribune
Pakistani women lead the way: Highlights of 2023 and prospects for 2024
In 2023, Pakistani women achieved historic milestones, including Sabahat Rizvi becoming the first woman secretary of Lahore High Court Bar Association and Justice Musarrat Hilali as the first woman chief justice of Peshawar High Court. Read more: Pakistan Today
Pakistan-bound container ship attacked by Houthis in Red Sea
A Pakistan-bound container ship was attacked by Yemen’s Houthi militia in the Red Sea, confirmed by the MSC Mediterranean Shipping Company. Houthis claimed responsibility, leading to disruptions in shipping routes through the Red Sea, prompting some shipping companies to suspend operations. Read more: Daily Pakistan
Decypher Report Analysis:
Pakistan Credit Rating
- Fitch Ratings uses a variety of factors and criteria to determine credit ratings for countries.
- The ratings for Pakistan, as of the disclosed document date of 2023-12-31, indicate a relatively low creditworthiness and a higher risk of default.
- The ratings include Long Term Issuer Default Rating (CCC), Short Term Issuer Default Rating (C), Country Ceiling (B-), Local Currency Long Term Issuer Default Rating (C CC), and Local Currency Short Term Issuer Default Rating (C).
Read the full report here.
Decypher Analysis
Taliban supreme leader’s existence remains a mystery
In the 29 months since the Taliban seized power in Afghanistan, Mullah Hibatullah Akhundzada, the militant group’s leader, has neither been photographed in public nor delivered a live video speech. Instead, he communicates through written media statements or the occasional audio message. The world only knows what he looks like from one photo taken years ago for his Afghan identity card – well before he was appointed supreme leader, Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid told Nikkei in an interview. “Like many other religious scholars, he holds the belief that taking pictures or videos is forbidden in Islam,” Mujahid said. “That’s why he chooses not to do so.” The last public record of Hibatullah notes that he was at a cabinet meeting on Nov. 20-21 in the city of Kandahar, according to a Taliban news release. According to sources, Hibatullah lived more than two decades of his life in Pakistan, first as a refugee and then as a religious cleric and teacher at a seminary. The people say he lived in Kuchlak, a town near Quetta, in Pakistan’s Balochistan province. Mirwais Afghan claims he was killed in a blast there in 2018; the Taliban call this “propaganda.”
Mirwais Afghan, an Afghan analyst based in London, says that ever since the Taliban regained control many people have suspected the leader is no longer alive. “I have held the view since 2018,” Afghan said. “The genuine Mullah Hibatullah was killed and replaced by his duplicates.” “The voice of the current man, whom they refer to as Mullah Hibatullah is significantly different from that of the original Hibatullah,” Afghan told Nikkei. The Taliban delayed announcing the death of their former leader, Mullah Omar, for more than two years, after he died in 2013.
This is a synopsis of the Nikkei Asia, please read the full report here.
Fact of the Week!!!
Bangladesh De/Cypher
1 Jan, 2024
Top Stories from Bangladesh
EC to hold meeting with foreign diplomats on Jan 4
The Election Commission is set to meet with foreign diplomats, including embassy heads and the UNDP representative, on January 4 in Dhaka. The purpose is to brief them on the steps taken for a free and fair 12th National Election. Read more: The Daily Star
Conviction of oppn people in Bangladesh crosses 1,500 since Aug
Convictions of over 1,500 opposition leaders and activists, mainly from the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), have occurred ahead of the January 7 national election, raising concerns about politically motivated cases and expedited trials by the ruling Awami League government. Read more: New Age
National polls: Armed forces to be deployed on January 3
The armed forces will be deployed in Bangladesh from January 3 to January 10, covering all districts, upazilas, and metropolitan areas to ensure law and security leading up to the January 7 national polls. Read more: Dhaka Tribune
Gas supply shortage hits industries hard in Bangladesh
Gas supply shortages are significantly affecting industries, particularly knitwear and textile factories in Bangladesh’s capital Dhaka, worsening issues in the export-oriented sector. Read more: New Age
Bay Terminal: Abu Dhabi Ports Group proposes to invest $1b
Abu Dhabi Ports Group plans a $1 billion investment for a multi-purpose terminal at Bay Terminal in collaboration with Chattogram Port Authority. Contracts with PSA Singapore and DP World are expected, along with a proposed gas and oil terminal for energy security. Read more: The Business Post
Dengue death toll crosses 1700-mark
The dengue death toll in Bangladesh has surpassed 1,700. In September alone, the deadliest month of the year for the dengue outbreak, there have been 396 fatalities and 79,598 cases. Read more: The Business Standard
Bangladesh keen to consider Teesta projects if China comes forward
Bangladesh is open to Chinese cooperation on Teesta River projects; ministries will assess proposals. Projects may start after national elections, says Chinese Ambassador. Read more: The Bangladesh Post
EPA with Japan to integrate Bangladesh into global value chain
Bangladesh’s commerce ministry reveals draft of proposed EPA with Japan, covering 17 sectors. Agreement aims to integrate Bangladesh into the global value chain. Signing expected by December 2025. Read more: Fibre2Fashion
India wants to see peaceful election in Bangladesh
India, as a close friend and partner of Bangladesh, wishes for a peaceful 12th national election on January 7, 2024, expressing support for Bangladesh’s vision of stability and progress. Read more: The Daily Sun
WFP to increase food ration from US$8 to US$10 for Rohingyas in Cox’s Bazar
From January 1, 2024, WFP will raise Rohingya food ration to $10, adding fortified rice. Urgent donor support is still needed for the $61 million funding gap. Read more: The Financial Express
Decypher Opinion
Year In Review: Bangladesh
Another year has passed with tragedies and achievements. The year 2023 was marked by the worst outbreak of deadly dengue fever and fatal opposition protests before the election. But the launch of several megaprojects brought hopes of a renewed start for 2024.
Election, Political Tension: The upcoming 12th national poll, scheduled for the new year, was marred by controversy, protests, and electoral maneuvering. The ruling Awami League and the opposition, especially the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), are at odds, leading to hartals and transport blockades initiated by the BNP. In a departure from the usual practice, the Awami League encourages leaders to run as independent candidates to prevent a repeat of the uncontested election in 2014, aiming to boost voter turnout. Key allocations include 26 seats for the Jatiya Party and sharing six constituencies with the 14-Party Alliance. Newly registered political parties face challenges in seat-sharing, and efforts are made to persuade BNP leaders to join them. Notable figures include Syed Muhammad Ibrahim of the Kalyan party, who left the BNP alliance and holds a favorable position, and Shahjahan Omar, a former BNP vice chairman, now an Awami League candidate for Jhalakathi-1, having faced legal challenges.
Dengue Outbreak: A severe dengue outbreak gripped the nation, claiming an alarming 1,705 lives by the end of the year. Despite initial control efforts, factors such as heavy rain, post-COVID vulnerabilities, and public negligence led to a surge in cases.
Economic Challenges: The Ukraine war impacted foreign currency reserves, causing the taka to devalue against the dollar. Inflation soared, affecting essential commodities, prompting the government to seek a $4.7 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Bangladesh receiving the first tranche of $476.2 million in February. Subsequently, the second tranche of $682 million was approved in December. Efforts to stabilise the exchange rate included initiatives by the Association of Bankers Bangladesh (ABB) and the Bangladesh Foreign Exchange Authorised Dealers Association (BAFEDA). However, 2023 saw market volatility, with the fixed rate not sustained due to a dollar crunch, leading to a rise to Tk 128 in the open market.
Inflation surged, impacting essentials like egg, chicken, onion, green chilli, and potato prices, presenting economic challenges throughout the year.
Arson Attacks and Unrest: Political unrest took a violent turn, with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) engaging in protests and blockades, resulting in the torching of 285 vehicles.
International Scrutiny: The United States (U.S.) expressed concern about the election process, introducing a new visa policy to deter interference. China, Russia, and India criticised this foreign intervention stance, aligning with the Awami League government’s position.
Disasters, Accidents: Bangladesh faced tragic incidents, including a devastating fire at the Bangabasar clothing market, an explosion at a Chattogram plant, and train derailments, raising questions about safety and infrastructure.
Connectivity Achievements: Despite challenges, Bangladesh made strides in connectivity with mega projects like the Bangabandhu Tunnel, Elevated Expressway, and the extension of the metro rail, aiming to enhance transportation networks and alleviate congestion.
Nuclear Power Milestone: Bangladesh officially entered the league of countries using nuclear power, receiving the first shipment of uranium fuel for the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant. Despite delays due to global sanctions, the project is poised to contribute significantly to the national grid by 2025.
Read more: BDnews24.com
Happy New Year! Thanks for reading!!!
