Asian Headlines: Quick Recap
The voters in Maldives archipelago have elected the opposition leader Mohamed Muizzu with 54% of the vote. The leader currently serves as the Mayor of Male, the capital city. Muizzu is traditionally seen as being close to China, but he could surprise the geopolitical pundits and keep the relationship with India largely friendly and will be quite a change from his acerbic election campaign against the larger neighbour.
The Indian GDP in the last quarter grew by 7.8%, beating an estimate of a possible 7.7%, by a sliver. The biggest driver of this growth has been the Government capex, but private investments are also being drawn in areas with a larger Government expenditure.
The World Bank in a report released today has decided to cut the growth figure for China to 4.4% from the earlier 4.8% it has predicted earlier this year. The slowing Chinese economy is not transitory as some have predicted but a feature of the new Asian dynamics where economies such as India, Indonesia, and Malaysia will be primary drivers of the regional expansion.
The tourist influx in Japan has led to certain islands in the country to start charging an ‘entrance tax’ to beat over-tourism starting in October, 2023.
The disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region has ceased to exist. The breakaway Republic of Artsakh has issued a decree proclaiming it will cease to exist from January 1st, 2024. This is a major win for Azerbaijan and will lead to further exodus of Armenians. Around 78,300 Armenians have fled in the face of Azerbaijani operation.
Two bombs rocked Pakistan on Friday one in Mastung killed 52. Another one a few hours later killed another 11. Till now no terror group has taken responsibility.
Af-Pak De/Cypher
2 Oct, 2023
Top Story
Key regional players gathered in Kazan, Russia on 29thSept to discuss the current Afghan situation, particularly the progress towards the inclusive government the Afghan Taliban promised to form after coming to power in Aug 2021. This meeting is part of ‘Moscow Format’. Pakistan, Russia, China, India, and Central Asian states are part of this group which was established in 2017 to build a regional consensus on the way forward for Afghanistan. The group met last year in November where the Afghan Taliban were urged to form an inclusive government. The Afghan Taliban government was not invited to the meeting. However, this time the invitation was extended to the interim Afghan government.
An Afghan delegation led by acting Foreign Minister Mawavi Amir Khan Muttaqi flew to Russia on 25th September to attend a Moscow-format meeting. The Moscow Format comes at a time when Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban relations are tense over the banned Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).
According to Russian special envoy for Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov the meeting focused on the topic of inclusivity of the incumbent Afghan government, counterterrorism, and drug-related crime. The Afghan Taliban government said it considers holding the meeting important, as differences between the Islamic Emirate and other countries can be resolved through dialogue. Read more: The Express Tribune. The Express Tribune
Regional Security
More than 50 people, including a senior police official, were killed when a suspected suicide bomber blew himself up near a procession commemorating Eid Miladun Nabi (PBUH) in Baluchistan’s Mastung district on 29th September. At least 100 people were injured in the attack. The blast took place near Al-Falah Mosque, where people were gathering to participate in the procession.
US State Department Spokesperson Mathew Miller also condemned the suicide attacks in Baluchistan and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. “Pakistanis deserve to practice their faith without fear. Our deep condolences to families who lost their loved ones,” he wrote on his X handle. Earlier this month, senior Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam Fazl (JUI-F) leader Hafiz Hamdullah on Thursday survived a bomb attack with non-lethal injuries, while travelling in the Mastung district of Baluchistan.
Read more: The Express Tribune
Iran’s Revolutionary guards successfully launched a third military satellite into orbit on 27th September. The Noor 3 imaging satellite orbits at an altitude of 450 kilometers above the earth’s surface and was launched by the three-stage Qased, or messenger carrier, which launched its predecessor Noor 2 in 2022. The US military says the same long-range ballistic technology used to put satellites into orbit could also allow Tehran to launch longer-range weapons, possibly including nuclear warheads. Tehran denies US assertions that such activity is a cover for ballistic missile development and says it has never pursued the development of nuclear weapons. Iran, which has one of the biggest missile programs in the Middle East, has suffered several failed satellites launches in recent years due to technical issues. The US placed sanctions on entities and people based in China, Turkiye, the United Arab Emirates and Iran for aiding the Iranian attack drone program, which Washington accuses of supplying such weapons to Russia for use in Ukraine.
Read more: Dawn
Foreign Affairs
In a startling revelation, the Senate Standing Committee on Overseas Pakistanis was informed on 27th September that a growing number of beggars from Pakistan were moving abroad, which has spurred “human trafficking”. The committee was further informed that a staggering “90 per cent of beggars” arrested in foreign countries were of Pakistani origin. Officials further revealed that a significant number of pickpockets apprehended in holy sites like Haram were also Pakistani nationals and many Pakistanis exploited pilgrim visas to travel to Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Iraq. It was also noted that Japan had emerged as a new destination for such visitors.
“India chand par pahonch gaya hai, aur hum rozana koi chaand charha dete hain (India has reached the moon, while we stumble every day),” “Our people are now ready to work on wages lower than those of workers of Nepal and India.” a senator added during the meeting.
It was acknowledged that Bangladesh and India had surpassed Pakistan in exporting professionals citing concerns about the skills and trustworthiness of Pakistani workers in the eyes of foreign employers. During the meeting Senator Sherry Rehman pointed out that Pakistan was witnessing an influx of skilled mountaineers from Nepal, emphasizing that “Pakistan’s own people generally lacked the same level of expertise in mountain climbing.” Read more: Dawn
US Assistant Secretary of State for Consular Affairs Rena Bitter arrived in Islamabad on 26th September for talks with a host of Pakistani officials and to observe the consular operations at the US embassy and its consulates. Read more: The Express Tribune
A Senate committee in Pakistan called top officials for briefing on long delayed Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project on 27thSeptember. The officer informed that “commercial and foreign concerns” were major impediments to completing pipeline project. Officials assured the meeting that efforts for the swift completion of the project have been expedited. The committee also deliberated on the proposed increase of gas prices and its use across the country. The committee was told that on average 28% of locally-produced plus imported gas is being consumed by the power sector, 26% by the domestic sector, 18% by the industry, and 22% is being supplied to the fertilizer companies. The committee also received a briefing on the hike in electricity prices and its impact on the masses. Read more: Dawn
China & Pakistan
China has not agreed to further expand cooperation with Pakistan in areas of energy, water management, and climate change under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Both the sides are facing difficulties in deepening the economic ties even after Pakistan gave up its opposition to setting up a new imported coal-fired power plant in Gwadar and agreed to several Chinese demands in the 11th Joint Cooperation Committee (JCC).
The JCC is a strategic decision-making body of CPEC, and its 11th meeting was held virtually on Oct 27, 2022, on the insistence of the PML-N led government that wanted to showcase some progress. Its minutes were signed on July 31, highlighting the difference of opinions on both sides that led to almost a year’s delay in reaching a consensus. The details showed that China did not agree to a host of measures that Pakistan had proposed in the areas of energy, water management, climate change and tourism in Giglit-Baltistan (G-B), Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (K-P), Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) and the coastal areas.
Pakistan has given significant concessions to China on the issue of setting up the 300MW Gwadar Power Plant. Pakistan had also wanted the conversion of the imported fuel-based Gwadar plant to Thar coal to address energy security and liquidity issues to which China did not agree. Similarly, there is no mention of the South-North gas pipeline project in the final minutes. The 11th JCC meeting reflected both China and Pakistan’s commitment to CPEC. Read more: The Express Tribune
Politics
The strength of Pakistan’s National Assembly has decreased by six seats to 336 as the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) reduced the representation of newly merged districts in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (K-P) from 12 to six in the fresh delimitation under the 2023 census. The ECP released the list of new constituencies detailing the changes in the areas of each constituency of the national and provincial assembly. In 2018, the former Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (Fata) was merged with K-P under the 25th Constitutional Amendment and initially 12 National Assembly seats were allocated to the newly merged districts, which had now reduced to six. The ECP said that 10 districts of K-P could not get the required population strength to get one National Assembly seat.
What is strange is that ECP preliminary report said that the seat allocation to the other provinces would remain intact. Accordingly, Punjab will have 141 National Assembly seats; Sindh 51, Balochistan 16 and Islamabad three. ECP also released the details of provincial assembly constituencies, according to which, the total number of seats in the Punjab Assembly was 297; Sindh Assembly 130; K-P Assembly 115, and Balochistan Assembly 51. Read more: The Express Tribune
Economy
The federal government of Pakistan has started discussions with provinces on a proposal to slash federal funding for provincial development projects and devolved subjects, in order to comply with commitments made to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) amid growing interest payments. Besides development schemes, the federal government is also financing devolved responsibilities, for instance vertical health projects.
Pakistan has to achieve a primary surplus at 0.4% of GDP. International lending agencies, particularly the World Bank, have beenasking the federal government to stop providing funds to provincial projects and devolved subjects, involving fiscal savings of more than Rs700bn.
Pakistan’s federal government itself would be cutting down its public sector development program substantially through rationalization of ongoing schemes, including cutting financial flows to projects at initial stages, or those made part of the development plan on political considerations. Read more: Dawn
The United Nations has revived efforts to persuade the international community to fulfill the pledges they made last year to help Pakistan rebuild as the UN chief called the 2022 floods a ‘litmus test’ for climate justice.
On 27th September, the UN General Assembly convened an informal meeting in New York to review the implementation of its last year’s resolution to help Pakistan rebuild, to increase aid and to keep up the political will to provide long-term support to Pakistan.
“We are here for the people of Pakistan,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres, who visited Pakistan in August 2022, said in his keynote speech to the delegates in the UN’s Trusteeship Council chamber. “I will never forget the climate-related carnage I saw. Lives, homes, livelihoods, schools, hospitals all obliterated.” António Guterres noted that as of now 69 % of the $816 million UN appeal for immediate aid and protection has been funded.
Triggered by torrential monsoon rains, the 2022 floods submerged one third of Pakistan. The deluge affected over 33 million people and killed 1,700 or more. Nearly 8 million people were displaced, with many still living in tents and makeshift homes. Despite contributing less than one per cent of global emissions, Pakistan’s population faces a staggering 15 times higher risk of dying from climate-related impacts. Read more: Dawn
On 27th September, the finance ministry of Pakistan stated inflation to surge by 3-4 percentage points to 31% cent in September compared to 27.4% in August. Inflation was likely to ease due to the double-digit base effect in September, but the significant rise in fuel prices offset it. Together with this, the upward adjustment in energy tariffs is further likely to intensify inflationary pressures in the coming months.
The State Bank of Pakistan forecasts inflation to decline sharply in 2024 due to the improved agricultural output, and administrative measures taken to curb volatility in the foreign exchange markets. Pakistan’s government has launched an operation against illegal forex dealers and commodity hoarders, which has stabilized the exchange rate and reduced commodity prices.
The SBP has left its policy rate unchanged at 22% saying inflationary expectations are under control. The rupee depreciated by 45% against the dollar since June 2022 reaching 295 in the interbank market and 304 in the open market in August. According to the finance ministry, the main cause of inflation is the structural problems — public debt, energy circular debt and trade deficit. Corrective fiscal action must be taken on an urgent basis to reduce inflation. Read more: Dawn
During a press conference on 25th September Chairman of Haq Do Tehreek organization of Baluchistan Maulana Hidayatur Rehman has warned if Gwadar’s issues are not addressed, they would not hesitate to initiate an armed struggle. He stated the demands for which they held extended sit-insin Gwadar remain unresolved. Mr. Rehman is also the Jamat-i-Islami Balochistan general secretary.
“We have organized extended sit-in demonstrations at approximately nine areas of Gwadar and various other cities. These protests aim to prevent the intrusion of the trawler mafia into Balochistan waters, address the issue of drug smugglers, eliminate unnecessary checkpoints, and address various other concerns,” Mr Rehman said. He pointed out that both previous and present governments have shown indifference to the trawler mafia and accused the Fisheries Department of accepting bribes from each trawler.
According to Mr. Rehman, he conveyed these demands to the caretaker Prime Minister Anwaarul Haq Kakar and Interior Minister Sarfaraz Bugti, “but unfortunately, no measures were taken”. Read more: Dawn
Pakistan had a tech boom in 2021, with the country’s startups raising $365.87 million in VC funding that year — more than all other years combined. But the following year, the ecosystem crashed. The ecosystem is struggling due to a funding crunch, company closures, sky-high inflation, and a prolonged political crisis. At least 800,000 Pakistanis sought employment abroad in 2022. Read more: Rest of World
Climate Change
The United Nations has revived efforts to persuade the international community to fulfill the pledges they made last year to help Pakistan rebuild as the UN chief called the 2022 floods a ‘litmus test’ for climate justice.
On 27th September, the UN General Assembly convened an informal meeting in New York to review the implementation of its last year’s resolution to help Pakistan rebuild, to increase aid and to keep up the political will to provide long-term support to Pakistan.
“We are here for the people of Pakistan,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres, who visited Pakistan in August 2022, said in his keynote speech to the delegates in the UN’s Trusteeship Council chamber. “I will never forget the climate-related carnage I saw. Lives, homes, livelihoods, schools, hospitals all obliterated.” António Guterres noted that as of now 69 % of the $816 million UN appeal for immediate aid and protection has been funded.
Triggered by torrential monsoon rains, the 2022 floods submerged one third of Pakistan. The deluge affected over 33 million people and killed 1,700 or more. Nearly 8 million people were displaced, with many still living in tents and makeshift homes. Despite contributing less than one per cent of global emissions, Pakistan’s population faces a staggering 15 times higher risk of dying from climate-related impacts.
Read More: Dawn
Views & Analysis
Pakistan faces interlocking crises that threaten the outbreak of violence, political stability is of the utmost importance. The economy is in dire straits, and millions of citizens have yet to recover from 2022’s devastating floods. Pakistan is also facing a serious security threat, particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, but also Baluchistan, both of which border Afghanistan. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2023 – Spring Update, Crisis Group explains what the EU can do to help.
Infographic
Nearly 700,000 Pakistani Workers Have Migrated Overseas So Far in Year 2022
Bangladesh De/Cypher
2 Oct, 2023
De/Cypher Opinion
The Potential Impact of BNP’s Return to Power in Bangladesh’s 2024 General Elections
Introduction
The new year can be perceived as a time of change and promise, but Sheikh Hasina and her government will be hoping for a recurring theme as general elections in Bangladesh are scheduled for early January 2024. If elected, Sheikh Hasina would be the leading the nation for a third consecutive term. Recent elections in 2014 and 2018 were marred by controversy, and the upcoming elections have raised many questions and concerns within the country as well as among its foreign allies. The ruling Awami League (AL) will not relinquish power easily, and the main opposition, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), appears determined to end the long-reigning government led by Sheikh Hasina.
Historical Context and Current Situation
Bangladesh has experienced significant political change since its independence in 1971. The country’s political landscape has been rocked by tumultuous outcomes as the two major parties, the Bangladesh Awami League (AL) and the BNP, have constantly tussled for power with periods of military rule interspersed. Since Sheikh Hasina’s return in 2008, the country has seen an increase in prosperity as a result of economic reforms and political stability. At the same time, doubts have been raised about the ruling government’s ability to hold free and fair elections, with the BNP declining to participate in the 2014 elections due to fears of electoral fraud.
The ruling AL claims that the Bangladesh Election Commission can ensure free and fair elections, while the opposition, especially the BNP, claims that the commission is partisan and calls for the reinstatement of the Caretaker Government (CTG) system, which the AL abolished in 2011. The AL has used events like as the BNP’s demonstration in 2022 and local elections won by non-AL candidates to support its position. The opposition, on the other hand, cites episodes of violence against its members, politically driven court proceedings, and strategic transportation strikes that have their demonstrations. The AL has also proposed concessions, such as a bipartisan election-time administration and foreign mediation, however these ideas are still being debated. This deadlock highlights the difficulties in establishing an open and impartial electoral process, raising worries about the legitimacy and fairness of the impending elections. Despite this, the BNP gaining power is still a real possibility, with major implications for Bangladesh and the rest of the world.
The BNP has historically been one of Bangladesh’s two major political parties, rooted in the country’s struggle for independence from Pakistan. The BNP was founded in 1978 by General Ziaur Rahman, who himself seized power in a military coup, and has seen periods of stability as well as controversy. The BNP has built a strong support base, particularly in rural areas, over the years, making it a formidable political force, but their failure to contest the previous election in 2018 has allowed the Awami league to strengthen their political foothold in the country. The opposition has heavily relied on the international community, particularly the United States, to apply pressure on the administration and push it to enable the formation of a CTG.
Economic Impact
One of the most pressing concerns about the potential return of the BNP to power is the economic impact on Bangladesh. Bangladesh has made significant economic progress under the current Awami League-led government, showing signs of significant economic growth, while becoming the second largest garment exporter in the world.
If the BNP comes to power in 2024, there is a chance that it may reverse some of the Awami League’s economic gains. The AL has significantly improved the country’s business environment and gained the trust of foreign investors, with China becoming their largest trading partner over the last decade. Diplomatic relations have also been established with Saudi Arabia, which has strengthened their ties in the Middle East and they have improved their relations with neighbouring countries in South Asia, especially their long-standing relationship with India.
The BNP has placed a great focus on dethroning Sheikh Hasina and her government through various political means and it has left many citizens wondering what their economic strategy would be for dealing with the country’s future. They released a manifesto at the end of 2022, which included 27 points, but was not well received by the public, so in July of this year, they decided to go all-in with a one-point demand: remove the current government and install a CTG to oversee the upcoming elections. Foreign allies may see a change of guard in Bangladesh as unsettling for their economic interests, and the BNP would risk isolating Bangladesh from the rest of the world if they cannot ensure a stable business-friendly environment.
Impact on diplomatic relation with India
Under the Awami League, Bangladesh has enjoyed relatively stable relations with its neighbours, particularly India. Given the deep historical and cultural ties between the two countries, the potential shift in power to the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) in the upcoming elections may have significant implications for India. The importance of India in Dhaka’s foreign policy considerations stems from India’s pivotal role in Bangladesh’s struggle for independence.
Recent policymakers in Delhi have expressed concern about destabilising US policies in Bangladesh, emphasising the importance of regional stability. This demonstrates India’s cautious approach to balancing its policies, particularly with regard to China. High-level bilateral visits and joint initiatives have demonstrated India’s active engagement with Bangladesh. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Bangladesh’s Sheikh Hasina have strengthened ties, settled disputes and expanded cooperation, demonstrating India’s commitment to ensuring Bangladesh’s internal stability.
Social and Human Rights Concerns
Bangladesh has made significant progress under the Awami League’s leadership in areas such as gender equality, women’s empowerment, and religious freedom. The BNP has previously been chastised for its stance on human rights and religious minorities and had taken note of how their past actions may have maligned their reputation by distancing themselves from extremist organisations such as Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) until recently.
Political Stability and Administration
When power transitions were contentious in the past, Bangladesh experienced periods of political turmoil and violence. As a result, if elected, the BNP must ensure a smooth transition of power while upholding democratic principles. July 13th, 2001, saw a peaceful transition of power for the first time in Bangladesh’s history. After ruling the country for five years, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina handed over power to a non-partisan caretaker government led by Latifur Rahman. Such a scenario appears unlikely to happen again as the AL no longer trusts the CTG process and believes it is biased towards the opposition. The events of 2001 have left an indelible mark on the country, and the AL is concerned for itself and its supporters if such destabilisation were to arise again.
Even though Western alliances led by the United States have questioned the legitimacy of previous elections and the government’s ability to hold free and fair elections in the upcoming election, it does not appear that there will be any major shift, and thus the BNP may have to contest the elections under the terms of the AL.
Conclusion
With the election only a few months away now, all eyes will be on Bangladesh and regardless of the outcome Bangladesh must navigate the electoral process peacefully and ensure a smooth transition of power.
In the end, Bangladesh’s future will be determined not only by the election results, but also by the government’s ability to address the nation’s pressing challenges while upholding democratic values, social justice, and economic progress for all of its citizens, whether led by the Awami League or the BNP.
References available at the end of newsletter …
Top Stories from this week
AIIB to provide $4.5 billion to Bangladesh in next five years
The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), led by China, will provide Bangladesh with $4.5 billion in funding over the next five years. The funds will be used for climate-related projects and various sectors throughout the country. Bangladesh has also asked the AIIB to relax the loan’s terms. The AIIB has already lent $3.27 billion to 18 Bangladesh projects. Read more: Fair
$27b health budget in the works
Bangladesh’s government is preparing a $27 billion budget for the upcoming five-year health sector plan. The plan aims to achieve universal health coverage, with a special emphasis on urban primary health care and mitigating the health effects of climate change. Experts warn, however, that the plan lacks coordination among different components, a clear roadmap, and a separate plan for health emergencies. Read more: The Daily Star
Dengue Outbreak: Country crosses grim milestone of 2 lakh cases
On Friday, the number of dengue cases in Bangladesh surpassed 200,000, the most ever recorded in a single year. Within 24 hours, 1,793 new dengue patients were admitted to hospitals, bringing the total number of cases to 200,981. The death toll has also risen to 975, with eight additional deaths recently reported. Read more: Bangi News
International Outlook
On Sunday, the UK chapter of the Awami League welcomed Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to London. She was greeted by the president and general secretary of the chapter, as well as other dignitaries. The prime minister arrived in London after visiting New York and Washington, DC. Read more: Bangladesh Info
Relevant Stories
On Tuesday, Bangladesh’s Election Commission issued new guidelines for international election observers. Observers must have prior experience working in the areas of good governance, elections, democracy, peacekeeping, and human rights. They must submit their reports within 30 days of the polling day, and their observations must be impartial, objective, and accurate. Read more: Dhaka Tribune
On Wednesday, Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina chastised the United States for imposing unjustified visa restrictions on Bangladeshis, questioning the rationale for the sanctions. Hasina emphasised her government’s efforts to ensure free and fair elections, implement reforms, and bring criminals to justice. She also mentioned the possibility of additional sanctions in the future, stating that it is up to the US. Read more: Weekly Blitz
On Sunday, Rena Bitter, the United States’ Assistant Secretary of State for Consular Affairs, arrived in Bangladesh for a two-day official visit. During her visit, she plans to meet with government officials to discuss consular issues, as well as interact with embassy and consulate personnel and observe consular operations. According to a US Department of State spokesperson, the visit underscores the US commitment to protecting American citizens abroad and facilitating legitimate travel and immigration to the US. Read more: New Age
National Politics
On Friday, at least 50 people were injured in a clash between two factions of the Awami League in Rangpur’s Mithapukur upazila. The conflict arose during a discussion about celebrating Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s birthday at the auditorium of the upazila parishad. The clash, which involved brick chips and stones, lasted approximately one and a half hours. Officer-in-Charge Mustafizur Rahman was among those injured. Read more: The Daily Star
On Sunday, the Bangladeshi law ministry denied BNP Chairperson Khaleda Zia permission to seek medical treatment in another country. Anisul Huq, the Law Minister, stated that the application that resulted in Khaleda Zia’s release from jail with certain conditions, such as receiving treatment at her residence and not being allowed to travel abroad, has been concluded and is now a closed matter. Read more: Daily Sun
On Sunday, Obaidul Quader, General Secretary of the Awami League and Road Transport Minister, stated that the government is preparing for a free, fair, and neutral election in accordance with the constitution. He made this statement during a meeting with Japanese Ambassador Iwama Kiminori, during which they discussed strengthening friendly relations and the progress of ongoing Japanese-funded projects. Read more: Prothom Alo
Business and Economy
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has invited investors from Commonwealth countries to invest in Bangladesh, stating that the country is poised to become the world’s third-largest market by 2030, after Germany and the United Kingdom. She emphasized the government’s commitment to facilitating high-quality and sustainable investments and highlighted various sectors, including agricultural goods, food processing, ICT, and medical equipment, as promising areas for investment. Read more: The Business Standard
Relevant Stories
On Thursday, the first shipment of uranium for the Rooppur nuclear power plant in Pabna, Bangladesh, arrived from Russia, in accordance with international safety standards. Shawkat Akbar, the project director, confirmed compliance with IAEA standards, resulting in the issuance of a licence for nuclear fuel import and storage. On October 5, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and Russian President Vladimir Putin are expected to attend a virtual fuel handover ceremony. Read more: The Daily Observer
Bangladesh’s foreign currency reserves are under pressure as remittance inflows fell to a 41-month low in September and export receipts fell short of their monthly target by $326.7 million. Since April, official remittance inflows have been declining, and economists and bankers believe this trend will continue due to the growing exchange rate gap between formal and informal markets. The unofficial exchange rate is higher than the central bank’s official rate, causing remittances to shift to the informal channel known as “hundi.” The pressure on reserves is expected to worsen, leading to further taka depreciation and rising inflation. Read more: The Daily Star
According to a study conducted by Research and Policy Integration for Development Bangladesh (RAPID), Bangladesh could increase its export earnings from major non-Ready-Made Garment (RMG) products to the European Union (EU) by $22.5 billion by improving supply-side capacity. Diversifying garment items could also boost RMG export earnings to the EU market to $60 billion. With its large consumer base and historical trade ties, the EU market has the potential to significantly boost Bangladesh’s export growth. Read more: The Business Standard
Japan has agreed to provide an additional $1.5 billion in loans to Bangladesh for the Matarbari coal-fired power project in Cox’s Bazar. This funding is part of the loan package’s second instalment, with a previous 30 billion yen already provided. The loan has a 1.6 percent interest rate and a repayment period of 30 years, including a 10-year grace period. Read more: The Financial Express
Rohingya Refugee Situation
According to the United Nations, Rohingya refugees in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh, are facing a severe crisis due to reduced aid funding. Due to donor funding cuts, the World Food Programme (WFP) has been forced to reduce life-saving assistance for the entire Rohingya population in Cox’s Bazar. The monthly cash allowance for refugees was reduced from $12 to $10 in March, and then to $8 in June. The World Food Programme (WFP) has urgently requested $175 million in donations to assist the Rohingya and restore full rations until December 2024. Read more: Xinhua
Relevant Stories
To cut costs, the US has proposed building semi-durable houses for Rohingya refugees in Cox’s Bazar. Although concerns about the environmental impact were raised, Janine Wynne, deputy assistant secretary of State for the Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration, suggested using a plastic-made semi-durable model house. The US emphasised the importance of long-term repatriation as the ultimate solution, while also acknowledging the difficulties faced by the Rohingya and Bangladesh as a result of declining humanitarian aid. Bangladesh, on the other hand, has expressed reservations about employing Rohingya refugees. Read more: Bangi News
On Friday, in Savar, the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) apprehended two Rohingyas impersonating hijras and seized 10,300 yaba pills from them. Rafiq (18) and Mamunur (23), the detainees, were apprehended in the Savar New Market area. During their initial interrogation, they admitted to being Rohingyas. RAB turned them over to police, who charged them under the Narcotics Control Act. According to RAB, the individuals had been selling yaba for a long time. Read more: Parbatta News
Latest in Society
On Tuesday, Chowdhury Abdullah Al Mamun, the Inspector General of Police (IGP), directed police officers to remain vigilant and prevent the spread of rumours concerning the upcoming Durga Puja, a major Hindu festival in Bangladesh. The IGP emphasised the importance of increased police patrolling throughout the country during the festival and directed field-level officers to ensure security prior to, during, and after the festivities. Leaders of the Hindu community have expressed their satisfaction with the security measures, and the police are establishing monitoring cells at various units to oversee the event, which is set to take place from October 20 to 24. Read more: Dhaka Tribune
On Saturday, Bangladesh’s Health Minister, Zahid Maleque, stated that the recently developed dengue vaccine, which is currently being tested, will be used once approved by the World Health Organisation (WHO). The vaccine, which is intended to combat all four dengue serotypes, requires additional testing and WHO approval before it can be used in clinical settings. Read more: Anadolu Ajnasi
Preparations are underway for the soft opening of Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport’s third terminal in Dhaka, Bangladesh, on October 7. The new terminal, which spans 5,42,000 square metres, aims to provide world-class service to air travellers and is set to open by the end of next year. A significant portion of the project is being funded by the Japan International Cooperation Agency, with construction being handled by Japanese firms. Read more: The Daily Star
Views and Analysis
Politics
An Analysis of US Sanctions on Bangladesh
Recent US sanctions imposed on Bangladesh, including politicians, bureaucrats, administrative officials, and now media workers have raised concerns about Bangladesh’s democratic process. The sanctions are in response to the United States’ concerns about Bangladesh’s democracy and human rights indicators. Read more: The Daily Asian Age
Economy
Philippine, Bangladesh power giants: Gas needed in green transition
AboitizPower, the Philippines’ leading power provider, and Summit Power International, based in Bangladesh, both advocate for the continued use of natural gas in their energy transition efforts, emphasising the role it plays in ensuring grid stability as renewables develop. AboitizPower intends to balance its generation capacity by incorporating 3,700 MW of solar and wind energy projects, as well as 1,000 MW of gas plants, into its thermal facilities. Read more: Nikkei Asia
Climate
HRW Says European Firms Ditching Toxic Ships on Bangladesh Beaches
According to Human Rights Watch (HRW), European maritime companies are dumping old ships on Bangladesh beaches, endangering workers and polluting the environment. Since 2020, European firms have sent 520 vessels to Bangladesh’s southeastern Sitakunda beaches, which have become one of the world’s largest shipbreaking yards. Concerns have been raised about worker safety and the environmental impact of the situation. Read more: Voices of Asia
Infographic
Bangladesh’s urban population share increased by 0.8 percentage points (+2.05 percent) over the previous year. As a result, Bangladesh’s share reached a high of 39.71 percent in 2022. Notably, the share has steadily increased in recent years.
References for De/Cypher Opinion
Bangladesh: Can BNP live up to western hype if it comes to power? – OPED. Available at: https://www.eurasiareview.com/31082023-bangladesh-can-bnp-live-up-to-western-hype-if-it-comes-to-power-oped/
The opposition in Bangladesh: Would need to reinvent its politics. Available at: https://www.jstor.org/stable/48636675/
Bangladesh and India: Shaping the future of the Indo-Pacific(2023) ORF. Available at: https://www.orfonline.org/research/bangladesh-and-india/
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