Decypher Data Dive 📊: Pakistan Elections🗳️
What Happened with Form 45 & Form 47?
Form 45: It is commonly referred to as the “Result of the Count.” The Form 45 contains essential information about the polling station, including the polling station number, constituency name, total registered voters, total votes cast, and a detailed breakdown of votes received by each candidate.
Form 47: Form 47 contains the number of rejected votes and the breakdown of votes for each candidate about the unofficial results of an electoral constituency.
The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) had removed the Form-47 section from its website on Sunday amid allegations of election result tampering. This move followed criticism over delays in announcing results. PTI’s Omar Ayub claimed 18 NA seats allegedly won by PTI-backed independents in Karachi were falsely altered.
2024 General Elections Results Update:
The 2024 Pakistan election culminated in a contentious standoff between two former prime ministers, Imran Khan and Nawaz Sharif, both claiming victory. However, neither party managed to secure a decisive majority, with Khan’s independents backed by him clinching 101 seats, while Sharif’s PML-N secured 75. This outcome necessitated coalition talks for government formation, signaling a crucial juncture in Pakistan’s political landscape.
The pre-election landscape was marked by a series of brazen maneuvers aimed at undermining PTI’s electoral prospects. The courts banned the party from participating officially, compelling its candidates to contest as independents, thereby depriving them of the party symbol crucial for illiterate voters. Moreover, Khan himself was incarcerated on dubious charges, effectively disqualifying him from running. Instances of abduction, torture, and intimidation targeted PTI candidates and supporters, creating an atmosphere of fear and uncertainty.
In a significant development towards political cooperation, the PML-N engaged in discussions with the PPP, led by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, who garnered 54 seats. These deliberations hinted at the possibility of a unity government to ensure stability in Pakistan’s political sphere.
Nevertheless, the aftermath of the election was marred by controversy as allegations of electoral irregularities surfaced, sparking protests by PTI supporters. Claims of manipulated results, with at least 18 seats allegedly tampered with, underscored the fragility of the democratic process in Pakistan.
Concerns loomed over potential military intervention amidst the political impasse. With neither party commanding a clear mandate, the specter of the military stepping in to fill the governance vacuum cannot be discounted, accentuating the precariousness of Pakistan’s democratic institutions.
Analysts drew parallels between the current scenario and the political landscape of 1988 when Benazir Bhutto’s victory faced opposition from the military and intelligence apparatus. While international pressure compelled the generals to reluctantly cede power, Bhutto’s authority was significantly curtailed, particularly in foreign and nuclear policy domains. Her tenure was cut short in 1990 due to corruption allegations, underscoring the complexities of civilian-military dynamics in Pakistan.
Ultimately, the defiance exhibited by Pakistani voters represents a pivotal moment in the nation’s democratic journey. As the struggle for democracy continues, both within Pakistan and on the global stage, the outcome of this election will reverberate far beyond its borders, shaping the trajectory of democratic governance in the region.
The outcome of the election is unlikely to substantially alter Pakistan’s behavior, given the entrenched influence of the military in shaping policy decisions. This raises pertinent questions about the extent of democracy and civilian oversight in Pakistan’s political framework. See Results here.
Views from X
PTI has earned a public mandate to govern. But it’s all but assured Pakistan’s next ruling coalition will look a lot like the previous one-a PDM redux led by PMLN and PPP and some smaller parties. PTI defied the odds in recent days, but it appears headed for the opposition.
— Michael Kugelman (@MichaelKugelman) February 11, 2024
BREAKING: UK foreign minister says ‘we recognise serious concerns over the fairness and lack of inclusivity of Pakistan’s elections’
— The Spectator Index (@spectatorindex) February 9, 2024
A🧵on what Feb 8 elections mean for Pakistan
Pakistan’s economy has consistently fallen behind globally – last year was one of the worse, with the economy actually contracting
Every macro fundamental is flashing red: inflation, growth, debt, investment, to name a few
1/n— Atif Mian (@AtifRMian) February 11, 2024
The federal gov has no money
It cannot even afford to pay the salary of a peon or a soldier without borrowing
The entire tax revenue is consumed after paying provinces their share, pensions to retirees, and interest on debt
2/n— Atif Mian (@AtifRMian) February 11, 2024
Inflation cannot be controlled when the entire government is run on deficit
Growth is impossible when government has no money to invest in the future
And lack of growth makes every problem worse.
The country is bankrupt. It is sinking deeper every year
3/n— Atif Mian (@AtifRMian) February 11, 2024
I have never seen such despondency
So many wanting to leave, established firms no longer comfortable investing
Yet no leader has a viable economic plan for the future
4/n— Atif Mian (@AtifRMian) February 11, 2024
Why do Pakistan Elections Matter?
By European Parliamentary Research Service (Summarized by Decypher)
Pakistan, as a significant nuclear power in South Asia, confronts a host of challenges, including an economic crisis marked by high inflation, a weakening currency, and minimal foreign reserves, leading to severe food insecurity and persistent malnutrition. Seeking solutions, Pakistan secured a $3 billion loan from the IMF in 2023 to alleviate its short-term balance of payments issues. Moreover, the nation grapples with water scarcity, a growing Islamist insurgency spearheaded by Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, and hosts approximately 3 million Afghan refugees. In terms of international relations, Pakistan has maintained ties with the EU since 1962, collaborating on diverse fronts like peace, security, democracy, and climate change.
Following the 2018 general election victory of Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI), the nation encountered mounting challenges, leading to Khan’s removal from power via a vote of no confidence. Subsequently, Shehbaz Sharif assumed the prime ministerial role, succeeding Khan. Notably, Nawaz Sharif, a former prime minister, returned from exile, potentially eyeing a fourth term, supported by the influential military establishment. Meanwhile, the EU has bolstered bilateral cooperation through its Multiannual Indicative Programme, offering financial aid and trade support, especially during crises like the COVID-19 pandemic and floods. Read full report here.
Pakistan’s General Election 2024
Analysis by Delhi Policy Group (Summarized by Decypher)
The brief provides a nuanced exploration of Pakistan’s political landscape, delving into various facets of the country’s complex socio-political dynamics.
- Transition from Raheel Sharif to Bajwa: Civil military relations strained over various policy matters, including India, Afghanistan, and economic restructuring. Gen. Raheel Sharif’s decision to retire amidst popularity raised suspicions and led to the “Dawn Leaks” controversy, revealing tensions between the government and military.
- Bajwa’s Political Engineering: Gen. Bajwa sought to influence the 2018 General Elections, viewing Imran Khan’s rise as beneficial for addressing socioeconomic and political challenges. PTI’s ascendance challenged the military’s control over policy direction, prompting adjustments to maintain influence while avoiding direct intervention.
- Economic and Foreign Relations Impact: Distrust from traditional allies like UAE and Saudi Arabia, along with China’s concerns over CPEC progress under Lt. Gen. Asim Saleem Bajwa’s leadership, highlighted growing rifts. Gen. Bajwa’s decision to extend his tenure aimed to rectify failures and stabilize the country’s precarious economic situation, opting to avoid Martial Law to prevent further instability.
- Aftermath: Imran Khan’s accusations against political opponents and military involvement raised tensions, leading to institutional contestations and attempts at course correction under Gen. Munir’s leadership. Efforts to regain control over the narrative and manage fallout from political interference underscored the military’s delicate balancing act in maintaining influence.
The Political Parties:
- PTI: Imran Khan’s close ties with the military and reliance on establishment support led to party fragmentation and leadership departures, affecting its electoral prospects.
- PPP: The party’s strategic cooperation with the military establishment in the past, combined with its alliances and efforts to retain political relevance, showcased its adaptability in Pakistan’s political landscape.
- PMLN: Nawaz Sharif’s calculated return to Pakistan and strategic alliances aimed at strengthening the party’s position highlighted its resilience and ability to navigate turbulent political waters.
Probable Scenarios:
Caretaker Government and Election Stability: Despite limited administrative capabilities, the caretaker government faces pressure to ensure free and fair elections amid demands for transparency and accountability. Postponement of elections risks further instability and challenges the legitimacy of political processes, raising concerns about the country’s democratic future.
Party Dynamics and Military Strategy: PMLN’s emergence as a strong contender reflects the military’s strategic considerations and its efforts to maintain control over the political landscape. Military’s calculations regarding PMLN’s influence and potential outcomes postelections shape its approach, highlighting the intricate interplay between political dynamics and military strategy.
Political Dynamics vs. National Interest: The absence of diplomatic engagements, low parliamentary productivity, and voter apathy underscore systemic challenges in Pakistan’s democratic governance. Structural reforms are imperative to address the dominance of personal ambitions over national interests, paving the way for a more inclusive and accountable political system.
Read full Report here.
Pakistanis’ Discontent Reaches Record High Before Election
In the lead-up to the recent election, Pakistanis found themselves grappling with unprecedented levels of discontent. Economic woes, characterized by inflation rates soaring to 29.7% and a struggling national currency, were at the forefront of public concern. Confidence in the electoral process and government integrity dwindled, exacerbated by the pervasive perception of corruption. Moreover, anti-migrant sentiments surged, while security challenges intensified, posing significant hurdles to the nation’s stability. Against this backdrop, the imperative for political and economic reforms became increasingly apparent as crucial prerequisites for fostering stability and fostering sustainable growth. Read more: Gallup
Pakistan Stock Exchange News:
Bears dominate PSX as KSE-100 index loses 1,000 points over political uncertainty
Political uncertainty weighed heavily on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) as the KSE-100 index plummeted by 1,000 points. Analysts attribute the decline to delays in election results and uncertainty over the formation of the next government. Oil exploration firms faced pressure amid rumors of IMF discussions on circular debt resolution. Despite some positive indicators like remittances and current account surplus, volatility persists.
Illicit Economy in Pakistan: Will Elections Change Anything?
Analysis by New Lines Institute (Summarized by Decypher)
The illicit economy in Pakistan presents a significant economic and security challenge, notably exacerbated since the fall of Kabul in August 2021. Relying on collusion among law enforcement, political elites, and criminal and militant networks in border regions, it has led to decreased tax revenue, currency pressure, and increased terrorism. Responding, the Pakistani government, led by the military, has initiated a crackdown, including repatriation of Afghan refugees. This situation offers an opportunity for U.S. policymakers to collaborate with Pakistan to mitigate the financing of illicit activities. Controlling this economy is crucial for Pakistan’s stability, necessitating coordination with international actors like the IMF, Saudi Arabia, and China for sustainable solutions.
- Consequences: Pakistan’s growing illicit economy has dire economic repercussions. It drains government tax revenue, hampering funding for vital public services and infrastructure. Furthermore, it distorts markets, fuels smuggling, and inflates inflation. Curbing this illicit sector is vital for Pakistan’s economic stability and progress.
- Security Implications: The illicit economy poses significant security risks in Pakistan. It funds criminal and militant groups along border regions, financing terrorism and perpetuating instability. Collusion between law enforcement, politicians, and these groups undermines the rule of law, weakening state institutions. Combatting this illicit trade is pivotal for enhancing security and stability domestically.
- International Relations: Pakistan’s illicit economy has implications for global relations, particularly with neighboring Afghanistan and Iran. Cross-border smuggling disrupts regional stability and presents wider security concerns. Cooperation with international partners, including the United States, is crucial to disrupt illicit networks and prevent the flow of contraband across borders.
- Socioeconomic Inequality: The burgeoning illicit economy exacerbates socioeconomic disparities in Pakistan. A privileged few benefit, while the majority grapples with economic instability and limited access to basic services. Tackling this underground economy is essential for fostering inclusive growth and narrowing socioeconomic gaps.
- Governance and Corruption: Collusion among law enforcement, politicians, and criminal elements underscores governance and corruption issues in Pakistan. Illicit activities flourish due to complicity among those in power. Addressing this requires not only crackdowns but also systemic reforms to combat corruption and improve governance nationwide.
These arguments highlight the multifaceted nature of the illicit economy in Pakistan and the need for comprehensive and coordinated efforts to combat it. Read full report here.
Political Repression and Militant Targeting Set the Stage for Pakistan’s 2024 Elections
by Pearl Pandya (Summarized by Decypher)
According to ACLED, there have been at least 24 incidents of armed groups staging attacks against political party members in the run-up to the 2024 elections. While much less than the nearly 100 instances documented prior to the 2013 elections, this is equivalent to the number recorded ahead of the 2018 elections. Despite having targeted multiple political parties in 2013, the TTP has since promised not to attack election gatherings, stating that its goals are restricted to the military and security services. The declaration followed a rare meeting between the head of JUI-F and the top leadership of the Taliban in Afghanistan, during which it is said that they discussed the Pakistani government’s worries over the TTP’s ascent. Pakistan has frequently asserted that Afghanistan, which has strong ties to the TTP, gives the group safe haven. The drop in high-fatality attacks from 2013 may also be explained by a shift in political leaders’ campaign strategies, some of whom have abandoned the custom of holding massive rallies in favor of a quieter one. Read more: ACLED
Opinion: ‘Yes, I voted. Here’s why’
Pakistani nuclear physicist, Pervez Hoodbhoy, argues in Dawn about three challenges that ought to be the driving force behind Pakistan politics.
ON Feb 8 many millions stayed home, convinced that the national elections were rigged. They cannot be blamed because the signs were clear and obvious. But in 2018, when the boot was on the other foot, wasn’t that just as apparent? And how fair were elections before that? Rigging elections is a fact of life, one that will endure until Pakistan matures politically.
Still, the hope that things can change made me head towards the polling station of my area, NA-46 of Islamabad. There I was confronted by choices. Some candidates had party affiliations — PML-N, PPP, ANP, JUI-F, JI, TLP, etc. They were outnumbered by independents. One was officially backed by PTI. Who should I vote for?
Wrong question! Instead it is proper to ask: what should one vote for? Which actions can save a ship sailing head-on into the rocks? TV evening shows are uniformly venal, peddling only illusions and providing no answers. Let’s instead look at the challenges up ahead… Read full article here
The three main challenges mentioned in the article are:
- Population Control: Urgently needed efforts to manage Pakistan’s fast-growing population are hindered by limited access to contraceptives and religious opposition. Unchecked growth exacerbates poverty and strains resources.
- Unemployment: Pakistan’s youth face high joblessness due to an education system ill-preparing them for the job market. This mismatch fuels frustration and economic instability.
- Separatism: Disenfranchisement in regions like Balochistan fuels separatist sentiments, met with harsh government measures. Addressing grievances and promoting dialogue are vital for national unity.
Asia Headlines: Quick Recap
Prabowo tells All Jazeera he is confident of winning in single round
Prabowo tells All Jazeera he is confident of winning in single roundIndonesia’s presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto expressed confidence in winning the upcoming election in a single round, according to Al Jazeera. Prabowo, backed by some opinion polls, aims to secure over 50% of votes, potentially avoiding a runoff. He defended his running mate, President Joko Widodo’s son, amid controversy over nepotism allegations. (The Jakarta Post)
Malaysia’s top court declares several Islamic laws in Kelantan state unconstitutional
Malaysia’s Federal Court invalidated 16 Islamic laws in Kelantan, ruling them unconstitutional. The laws were deemed beyond the state’s legislative authority. The decision may influence Sharia legality nationwide. Opposition leader Muhyiddin Yassin urged constitutional amendments to bolster Islamic laws. (Arab News)
CATL, BYD, others unite in China for solid-state battery breakthrough
Beijing has established a consortium, CASIP, comprising government, academia, and industry leaders like CATL and BYD, to accelerate solid-state battery development. The initiative aims to revolutionize the EV market by building a supply chain for these batteries by 2030, challenging global competitors. (Nikkei Asia)
India’s GMR Group potential front runner for US$3 billion Manila airport project amid China tensions: sources
India’s GMR Group emerges as a top contender for Manila’s $3 billion airport project, potentially leading a consortium amid tensions with China. The Philippines, seeking to overhaul its airport, prioritizes bids regardless of bilateral ties. GMR aims to enhance the airport’s capacity to 60 million passengers annually. (SCMP)
Bangladesh De/Cypher
12 Feb, 2024
Top 5 Stories:
PM’s directives to control commodity price, stop corruption
PM Sheikh Hasina issued directives to secretaries focusing on controlling commodity prices, ensuring law and order, implementing the election manifesto, combating corruption, and scrutinizing projects. Read more: Bangla Insider
Hasan Mahmud discusses Myanmar issue with Ajit Doval in Delhi
Foreign Minister Hasan Mahmud and India’s National Security Advisor Ajit Doval met in New Delhi on 7th Feb to discuss Rohingya repatriation and the situation in Myanmar. Read more: BD News 24
‘Bangladesh seeks extended credit terms from Saudi Arabia amid dollar crisis’
Salman Fazlur Rahman, PM’s Advisor on Private Industry and Investment, seeks extended credit terms from Saudi Arabia for fuel imports amid the dollar crisis. Read more: The Financial Express
Bangladesh relocates 101 Myanmar security personnel to Teknaf
Bangladesh relocated 101 Myanmar security personnel from Ghumdhum to Teknaf amid border tensions. They fled Myanmar due to intense firing, seeking shelter in Bangladesh. Read more: Prothom Alo
BNP announces fresh six-day program beginning on Tuesday
BNP will initiate a six-day program, starting Tuesday, to demand parliament dissolution and a new election under a neutral government. Read more: Dhaka Tribune
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